Monday, March 13, 2023

Federal Reserve economists: Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints

The study confirms that behind most rampant price inflations in history is  excessive government spending! It is no different this time!

Massive trillion dollar deficit-financed fiscal transfers in the U.S. and other Western countries fueled price inflation! Plus, add to this the more than one decade of ultra low interest rates as a result of a colossal failure of monetary policy!

From the abstract:
"This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy to U.S. inflation over the December 2019-June 2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and that the fiscal stimulus contributed half or more of the total aggregate demand effect."

Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints by Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Alvaro Silva, Muhammed Ali Yildirim :: SSRN

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