Staatsquote in der Schweiz ist laut IWP deutlich grösser als gedacht

Haben sich die Schweizer schön gerechnet?

IWP = Institut für Schweizer Wirtschaftspolitik an der Universität Luzern

"Der Schweizer Staat dürfte in den nächsten Jahren grösser werden. Bundesrat und Parlament wollen für die Armee und die AHV mehr Geld ausgeben – und dafür die Mehrwertsteuer erhöhen. So wird wohl bald ein grösserer Teil dessen, was jährlich in der Schweiz erwirtschaftet wird, durch die Kassen des Bundes fliessen. Und dadurch wird auch die sogenannte Staatsquote zunehmen. Sie ist definiert als der Anteil der Staatsausgaben gemessen am Bruttoinlandprodukt (BIP)."

"Die Schweiz ist stolz auf ihren schlanken Staat. Das bekannteste Mass scheint ihr recht zu geben: 2023 entsprachen die Staatsausgaben 33,4 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung.

Nach Irland war das der zweittiefste Wert Europas. Auch über die Zeit blieb diese Staatsquote bemerkenswert stabil.

Ein neues Policy Paper ... zeigt, dass hinter der tiefen Staatsquote mehr staatliche Dynamik steckt, als sie vermuten lässt. ...

Das BIP umfasst allerdings auch Abschreibungen, also den Wertverlust von Maschinen, Gebäuden und Software. Dieser Teil der Wirtschaftsleistung wird benötigt, um den bestehenden Kapitalstock zu erhalten, und steht daher weder dem Staat noch Privaten für zusätzliche Ausgaben zur Verfügung. Zieht man die Abschreibungen vom BIP ab, erhält man das Nettoinlandsprodukt (NIP). Der deutsche Finanzwissenschafter Prof. Dr. Alfons Weichenrieder hat jüngst gezeigt, wie stark die Wahl zwischen BIP und NIP das Bild verändern kann  ...

Für die Schweiz macht dieser Wechsel des Massstabs einen besonders grossen Unterschied: Die Abschreibungen entsprechen hier 23,4 Prozent des BIP, dem zweithöchsten Wert im EU/EFTA-Vergleich. ...

Was hinter den ausgeglichenen [öffentlichen] Haushalten steckt  

Neben der tiefen Staatsquote gelten auch die seit der Jahrtausendwende meist ausgeglichenen öffentlichen Haushalte als Beleg für die Schweizer Ausgabendisziplin. Doch die Entwicklung von Ausgaben und Einnahmen zeigt, wie dieser Ausgleich zustande kam.

Die Ausgabenquote blieb zwischen 1995 und 2024 mit 33,4 beziehungsweise 33,6 Prozent nahezu unverändert.

Die Einnahmenquote stieg im selben Zeitraum hingegen von 31,5 auf 34,2 Prozent. Der Haushaltsausgleich kam damit vor allem über höhere Einnahmen zustande. ..."

Staatsquote in der Schweiz ist laut IWP grösser als gedacht (Abo erforderlich) "Die Schweiz hat im internationalen Vergleich eine niedrige Staatsquote – zumindest laut den offiziellen Zahlen. Eine Analyse des IWP Luzern relativiert dieses Bild."

Eine Frage des Massstabs: Wie gross der Schweizer Staat wirklich ist. 

IWP policy paper

Global homicide rate fell by 14 percent between 2015 and 2024, from 5.9 victims per 100,000 people to 5.1.

Good news! Apparently, the male homicide rate went down much more than the female homicide rate (see chart below)

Doomslayer: Progress Roundup - by Malcolm Cochran

The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026

Birdsong and whale song show patterns similar to human language and is unconsciously learnt as babies

Amazing stuff!

"An international team of researchers has uncovered a previously undetected structure in the birdsong of Bengalese finches that has the same statistical patterns found in human languages. ...

The findings, published in the journal Science Advances, build on the team's previous discovery that humpback whales also rely on a similar systematic structure. ..."

From the abstract:

"All languages have statistically coherent subsequences (e.g., words) whose frequency distribution follows a power law. 

These properties facilitate language learning in humans, making them good candidates for arising through cultural transmission as a way to help faithful transmission across generations.

Recently, both properties were found in whale song, which is also culturally transmitted, leading to the strong prediction that they should be found wherever complex sequential signaling is culturally transmitted.

Here, we use the same tools used to analyze human data and whale song to reveal that culturally transmitted Bengalese finch song also has statistically coherent subsequences whose distribution follows a power law.

We additionally show that statistical coherence increases over development, but the power law is present throughout, suggesting that it reflects a fundamental principle of learned representations.

Finding these parallels between evolutionarily distant species illustrates the importance of cultural transmission in shaping communication and suggests that core properties of language arise through convergent evolution."

Birdsong and whale song show patterns similar to human language

Do Birds Learn Like Babies? New Hebrew University Study Finds Language-Like Patterns in Finch Songs (original news release) "It turns out that songbirds, humpback whales, and human babies may all rely on the same hidden mathematical rules when learning to communicate.

A new study reveals that Bengalese finches organize their songs using the same statistical patterns found in human speech—an evolutionary solution that makes complex communication easier to learn and pass from one generation to the next. The discovery suggests that some of language’s most fundamental building blocks may not be uniquely human after all, but a universal feature of learned communication."

Language-like statistical structure arises in learned signaling: evidence from birdsong (open access)

Fig. 3. Detected subsequences follow a Zipfian distribution throughout development, but their statistical coherence and slope increase as they approach the adult target.

Could it be that Google statistics for the Blogger website regarding my blog are screwed up today?

Update of 8/13/2026: This issue still continues. According to Google Search "If your analytics show a massive surge of web traffic routed through the Seychelles, it is not real human readership. It is a widespread form of fake automated "ghost traffic" or bot activity designed to manipulate website data and pad metrics."
Apparently, Google, the owner of Blogger.com is not capable or willing to prevent this from happening!

Views by country over the last 30 days

View over the last three months

Today [8/5/2026], I discovered that the Seychelles islands had almost 13,000 views by 12:30 on 8/5/2025 since 17:00, 8/4/2026. This is highly unusual for a 24 hour window!

Maybe some tourists arrived on the islands and while they spend time on the famous white sand beaches, they discovered my blog! 😊

"The population of Seychelles in 2026 is estimated to be approximately 134,959 at mid-year" (Google Search)

"Seychelles is famous for pristine white-sand beaches, giant Aldabra tortoises, and the massive Coco de Mer nut. Located in the Indian Ocean, this tropical island nation consists of 115 islands known for luxury tourism and protected nature reserves." (Google Search)

Christopher A. Sims (1942–2026): Paradigm-shifting macroeconomist and econometrician

R.I.P.

That makes 2026 the year renown econometricians died. This is the second one! See also my blog post here.

From the abstract:

"Christopher A. Sims, who died on March 14, 2026, left behind an indelible mark on macroeconomics and econometrics. His Nobel Prize winning research reshaped the paradigm for empirical macroeconomics, creating a rigorous and flexible framework for inferring the effects of macroeconomic policies. He also made important contributions to time series forecasting, Bayesian econometrics, factor modeling, approximation theory, and models of monetary and fiscal policy.

Few academics have had as direct an impact on the work of central banks throughout the world. A frank and generous mentor with numerous students, Chris’s impact extends well beyond his published papers."

Christopher A. Sims (1942–2026): Paradigm-shifting macroeconomist and econometrician | PNAS (open access)

Sims teaching a class in 2011 right after being awarded the Nobel Prize in economics.

Global road injuries and deaths have fallen by nearly a third from 1990 to 2023

Good news! Amazing given that "world population increased by approximately 2.7 billion people" and "total global fleet of registered motor vehicles increase of about 1 billion vehicles" over this period. (Google Search)

"Global road injuries and deaths have fallen by nearly a third from 1990 to 2023, per a study published yesterday in Lancet Public Health; but traffic crashes still led to +1.1 million deaths last year."

"

• In 2023, road injuries caused 50.9 million injuries, 1.34 million deaths, and 75.3 million years of healthy life lost globally. 
• Road injuries were the leading cause of death among young people ages 10-39 globally and the second-leading cause among children ages 5-9. 
• Mortality rates are nearly six times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries; more than 90% of deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. 
• Motor vehicle crashes were the leading cause of road injury cases and deaths.

"

From the abstract:

"Summary

Background

Road injuries are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Years of international efforts have aimed to strengthen policy engagement, including the 2020 UN General Assembly's proclamation of the Second Decade of Action for Road Safety (2021–30), targeting a 50% reduction in road traffic deaths and serious injuries by 2030. The aim of this study is to provide estimates to monitor progress and identify intervention gaps.

Methods

As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, we estimated incidence, mortality, and morbidity of road injuries for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023.

Four road injury types and 47 nature-of-injury categories were examined. Morbidity and mortality data from clinical records, vital registration, and police reports were harmonised using meta-analytic techniques to ensure consistency and correct for systematic bias. Incidence was modelled with the meta-regression tool Disease Modelling-Meta-Regression version 2.1 and cause-specific mortality with the Cause of Death Ensemble model, both incorporating location-specific covariates to support interpolation.

Years of life lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from the prevalence and severity of the nature of road injury, and years of life lost (YLLs) from the number of cause-specific deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death.

Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were the sum of YLLs and YLDs. All metrics were calculated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Findings

In 2023, there were 50·9 million (95% UI 46·1–56·1) road injury incident cases, 1·34 million (1·04–1·58) deaths, and 75·3 million (59·8–89·2) DALYs globally. Road injuries were the leading global cause of death among males aged 10–39 years. 

Between 1990 and 2023, age-standardised incidence decreased by 38·3% (95% UI 36·9–39·7) and mortality decreased by 32·3% (6·1–49·0), but progress varied widely by World Bank income group.

Mortality in low-income countries (43·8 [95% UI 31·7–56·0] deaths per 100 000 population) was approximately six times higher than in high-income countries (7·5 [7·1–7·9] deaths per 100 000), despite the high-income countries showing the highest age-standardised incidence rates (858·1 [95% UI 781·9–947·1] cases per 100 000). In the past decade, many countries achieved notable reductions in road injuries, but others, including Ghana and the USA, saw increases. More severe injuries tended to occur in low-income and middle-income countries. ..."

Global Health NOW: War’s Continued Toll on Gaza’s Women and Children; and Recruiting Fish in the Battle Against Schistosomiasis

Road deaths have declined globally since 1990 except in poorer countries, study finds

Around the world, road injuries remain a leading, preventable cause of death among young people (original news release)

Global, regional, and national burden of road injuries 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (open access)

Figure 2 Change in age-standardised mortality rates attributable to road injuries, 2010–23

Latest US labor force participation rate

The dip of and the historically low level of the labor force participation rate (LFPR) seems to be the latest hot topic in economics.

What seems to be obvious is that the LFPR dropped significantly during the administration of the senile and demented 46th President and has not recovered since. The massive illegal immigration of several millions during his presidency surely has something to do with it. 

Wall Street Journal What's news

How Not Getting Sick Made the Economy Look Sick in terms of statistical data

Recommendable! Yes, medical services and more ill people increase GDP! A lesson in economics!

Economic textbooks have pointed out this paradox/negative self enforcing cycle for at least several decades that e.g. a roaring economy causes more employees to get stressed out, suffering more accidents etc. and thereby seeking more medical treatment driving up GDP further.

"... The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) cut fourth-quarter real economic output growth to 0.7 percent from 1.4 percent. ...

Demand for health care was lower than initially estimated. The Census Bureau’s Quarterly Services Survey shows health care and social assistance revenue rose just 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter after a 3.0 percent gain in the third quarter. BEA specifically cited new QSS data as the reason it revised down health-care services.

Demand was down because we were healthier than expected. Data from the Centers for Disease Control show severe respiratory illness hospitalizations were low late in the fourth quarter, consistent with a lighter illness period than one would expect in a normal winter ramp-up. Fewer sick people means fewer hospital visits, fewer outpatient visits, and less measured health-care output. So a mild holiday season for the flu and COVID turns out to be bad for GDP accounting, but it is not bad news for actual Americans. ..."

Breitbart Business Digest

Fig: GDP (Second Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 (Source)

Blogger top location views statistics flawed?

Over the past 30 days, there were roughly 116,000 of views recorded primarily from at least six different countries in South America. This was highly unusual.

As of today, there are zero views from these countries. Very odd!

What is Density Functional Theory (DFT) with Christopher Bishop

Recommendable, but very basic and introductory!

Theoretical physicists completely determine the statistics of quantum entanglement

Amazing stuff!

"For the first time, theoretical physicists ... have completely determined the statistics that can be generated by a system using quantum entanglement. This achievement paves the way for exhaustive test procedures for quantum devices. ..."

"... An entangled system comprises two parts that are inextricably linked. When these subsystems are measured, this link appears in the frequencies of the observed results. A signature of the quantum regime par excellence, these statistics are a foundation of the growing field of quantum information. Until now, however, statistics derived from measurements on entangled states have always resisted analysis. By identifying all the frequencies needed to reconstruct the description of the measured quantum system, this work presents the first complete and explicit description of a set of quantum statistics.

This result has both fundamental and applied significance. Indeed, the type of reconstruction obtained forms the basis of the most advanced validation methods for quantum devices. This work paves the way for new, more comprehensive test procedures for quantum devices. At the same time, by determining the extent of quantum statistics, this result identifies the limits of quantum physics itself. It thus informs us about the scope of quantum theory and offers new perspectives for better understanding it."

From the abstract:

"In any experimental setting, quantum physics provides the statistical distributions that the observed outcomes are expected to follow. The set formed by all these distributions contains the imprint of quantum theory and captures some of its core properties. So far, only partial explicit descriptions of this set have been found for Bell-type settings in which entangled states can be shared and measured by independent observers.

Here we obtain the complete explicit and analytical description of a full set of quantum statistics in terms of its extremal points. This is made possible by finding all bipartite quantum states and pairs of binary measurements that can be self-tested, that is, reconstructed from empirical statistics only. Our description precisely reveals some of the extent and limitations of quantum theory."

Theoretical physicists completely determine the statistics of quantum entanglement

Quantum Statistics (original news release) "In a new paper ... provide an answer to a 40-year-old open question about the scope of quantum entanglement."

Quantum statistics in the minimal Bell scenario (no public access)

Global Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) Rates Higher Than Previously Estimated affecting 1 in 13 girls/women mostly in Islamic countries

When will the cruelty of FGM be abolished!

It is shocking that FGM is apparently  also practiced in some Western countries.

Why are women's rights groups so unusually deafening silent on this topic?

"... FGM comprises all procedures that involve partial or total removal of the external female genitalia for non-medical reasons. It’s nearly always done to prepubescent girls, with most girls being cut before the age of 5. ...

The universally-cited estimate of FGM’s global prevalence is UNICEF’s 230 million. It is, however, a significant underestimate: FGM is practised in at least 90 countries, but UNICEF’s estimate is based on data from only 31, mainly African, countries.

CSPII’s report uses numerical data from 77 countries, including those where FGM has only recently been introduced, such as those in Europe, North America, and Australia. The report also identifies 20 countries for which there are reports of FGM being practised, but no numerical data.

The report finds the prevalence of FGM to be between 291 and 304 million: 1 in 13 girls/women alive today. It also finds that about 80% of this prevalence is attributable to Islamic populations and 20% to non-Islamic populations, and that about 23.5% of Islamic girls/women have undergone FGM compared to about 2% of non-Islamic girls/women. ..."

Global Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) Rates Higher Than Previously Estimated | Frontpage Mag "Up to 304 million women affected."

Millions of people are missing from U.S. disability data. Really!

Propaganda and demagoguery? Most likely!

Or are actually too many diagnosed with a disability? Quite possible!

Is it not sometimes very convenient or even desirable to be diagnosed with a disability? Think of all the perks (e.g. special parking)!

Does not the medical profession have a keen business interest to diagnose as many as possible? It's often chronic and may require long term care.

Caveat: I did not read the article.

The authors: "Swenor is the founding director of the Johns Hopkins Disability Health Research Center. Landes is an associate professor of sociology and O’Hanley faculty scholar at Syracuse University. Hall is director of the Institute for Health and Disability Policy Studies at the University of Kansas." Any conflict of interest here?

The U.S. definition of disability is too narrow | STAT "Federal surveys focus on limitations on specific tasks, missing many with mental illness, chronic health conditions, and more."

Credits: Global Health NOW: Holding the Polio Eradication Effort Hostage; Cancer Care Inequities Are Costing Kids' Lives; and A Refuge from Relentless Threats

AI Index: State of AI in 13 Charts from the AI Index report 2024

Recommendable!

AI Index: State of AI in 13 Charts In the new report, foundation models dominate, benchmarks fall, prices skyrocket, and on the global stage, the U.S. overshadows.

THE AI INDEX REPORT Measuring trends in AI

Look at this amazing precision: Two decimal places delivered by Stanford University! (Caution: satire)

On Neural Networks Learn Statistics of Increasing Complexity

This seems to be an interesting paper! Caveat: Did not have time to read it yet!

"... Researchers ... a new paper in which they present new theoretical and empirical evidence for distributional simplicity bias (DSB). DSB posits that neural networks first learn low-order moments (mean and variance) of a data distribution, before moving on to higher-order correlations (skewness or kurtosis). The researchers demonstrate this by training models on real datasets and evaluating them (throughout training) on synthetic data designed to probe the models’ reliance on statistics of different orders.  They demonstrate this behavior across a variety of image and language architectures. ..."

From the abstract:

"The distributional simplicity bias (DSB) posits that neural networks learn low-order moments of the data distribution first, before moving on to higher-order correlations. In this work, we present compelling new evidence for the DSB by showing that networks automatically learn to perform well on maximum-entropy distributions whose low-order statistics match those of the training set early in training, then lose this ability later. We also extend the DSB to discrete domains by proving an equivalence between token n-gram frequencies and the moments of embedding vectors, and by finding empirical evidence for the bias in LLMs. Finally we use optimal transport methods to surgically edit the low-order statistics of one class to match those of another, and show that early-training networks treat the edited samples as if they were drawn from the target class. Code is available at this https URL."

The Gradient (weekly newsletter)

[2402.04362] Neural Networks Learn Statistics of Increasing Complexity (open access)

15 largest industrial robotics markets in 2022

The invasion of the robots into our (work) lives! 

Since we need more nurses for our aging populations this makes sense! 😊 (Caution: Satire)

Look at China, the leader with 290,000 installations of industrial robots last year. Japan at second place, only 50,000. If you can trust communist statistics.

15 largest industrial robotics markets in 2022 - The Robot Report

Strange Mathematical Pattern Found in The Cells of The Human Body

Amazing stuff!

"... Researchers ... have published a comprehensive study of how many individual cells of each type there are in typical bodies.

Based on an exhaustive analysis of over 1,500 published sources, most adult males contain a total of around 36 trillion cells, while adult females tend to have some 28 trillion cells. A 10-year-old child, by comparison, would have in the region of 17 trillion. ...

As well as a total cell count, the study revealed something really interesting: if you group cells into categories based on their size, each size category contributes roughly the same amount to the mass of the body. ...

"These patterns are suggestive of a whole-organism trade-off between cell size and count and imply the existence of cell-size homeostasis across cell types," ...

As the researchers point out, our cells are sized perfectly for their different roles – and any disruption to this scale often indicates the presence of disease. ..."

From the significance and abstract:

"Significance

A consistent and comprehensive quantitative framework of the cells in the human body could benefit many areas of biology. We compile data to estimate cell mass, size range, and cell count for some 1,200 cell groups, from the smallest red blood cells to the largest muscle fibers, across 60 tissues in a representative male, female, and 10-y-old child. We find large-scale patterns revealing that both cellular biomass in any given logarithmic cell-size class and the coefficient of cell-size variation are both approximately independent of cell size. These patterns are suggestive of a whole-organism trade-off between cell size and count and imply the existence of cell-size homeostasis across cell types.

Abstract

Cell size and cell count are adaptively regulated and intimately linked to growth and function. Yet, despite their widespread relevance, the relation between cell size and count has never been formally examined over the whole human body. Here, we compile a comprehensive dataset of cell size and count over all major cell types, with data drawn from >1,500 published sources. We consider the body of a representative male (70 kg), which allows further estimates of a female (60 kg) and 10-y-old child (32 kg). We build a hierarchical interface for the cellular organization of the body, giving easy access to data, methods, and sources (https://humancelltreemap.mis.mpg.de/). In total, we estimate total body counts of ≈36 trillion cells in the male, ≈28 trillion in the female, and ≈17 trillion in the child. These data reveal a surprising inverse relation between cell size and count, implying a trade-off between these variables, such that all cells within a given logarithmic size class contribute an equal fraction to the body’s total cellular biomass. We also find that the coefficient of variation is approximately independent of mean cell size, implying the existence of cell-size regulation across cell types. Our data serve to establish a holistic quantitative framework for the cells of the human body, and highlight large-scale patterns in cell biology."

Strange Mathematical Pattern Found in The Cells of The Human Body : ScienceAlert: From the oxygen-carrying corpuscles in our blood to the branching neurons that govern our thoughts, our body is built of a dazzling variety of cells.

The human cell count and size distribution (open access)

Fig 1 Contrasting cell count and biomass distributions by cell type. Voronoi tree maps for all 400 investigated cell types of the reference male anatomical model (area represents relative cell number or biomass).

New ‘Free Cities Index’ Ranks America’s Best and Worst Pro-Growth Cities

Good news!

"Cities that promote pro-growth policies, encourage entrepreneurship, and efficiently provide core public services ranked at the top of a new “Free Cities Index” of the nation’s most 50 populous cities released today by the Free Cities Center at the nonpartisan, free-market think tank, the Pacific Research Institute. ..."

New ‘Free Cities Index’ Ranks America’s Best and Worst Pro-Growth Cities - Pacific Research Institute

China stopped publishing youth unemployment data after record high

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics! 

However, when a communist party rules then some statistics are just not shown anymore.

China suspends youth unemployment data after record high - BBC News China has stopped releasing youth unemployment figures, which were seen by some as a key indication of the country's slowdown.

One statistical analysis must not rule them all

Recommendable! A critical and sobering assessment of science and statistical methods! Science is quite often anything but certain! To err is human!

Basically, every serious data analysis requires multiple studies to be performed by different teams.

"A typical journal article contains the results of only one analysis pipeline, by one set of analysts. Even in the best of circumstances, there is reason to think that judicious alternative analyses would yield different outcomes.

For example, in 2020, the UK Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling asked nine teams to calculate the reproduction number R for COVID-19 infections. The teams chose from an abundance of data (deaths, hospital admissions, testing rates) and modelling approaches. Despite the clarity of the question, the variability of the estimates across teams was considerable (see ‘Nine teams, nine estimates’).

On 8 October 2020, the most optimistic estimate suggested that every 100 people with COVID-19 would infect 115 others, but perhaps as few as 96, the latter figure implying that the pandemic might actually be retreating. By contrast, the most pessimistic estimate had 100 people with COVID-19 infecting 166 others, with an upper bound of 182, indicating a rapid spread. ...

The dozen or so formal multi-analyst projects completed so far (see Supplementary information) show that levels of uncertainty are much higher than that suggested by any single team. In the 2020 Neuroimaging Analysis Replication and Prediction Study2, 70 teams used the same functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data to test 9 hypotheses about brain activity in a risky-decision task. For example, one hypothesis probed how a brain region is activated when people consider the prospect of a large gain. On average across the hypotheses, about 20% of the analyses constituted a ‘minority report’ with a qualitative conclusion opposite to that of the majority. For the three hypotheses that yielded the most ambiguous outcomes, around one-third of teams reported a statistically significant result, and therefore publishing work from any of one these teams would have hidden considerable uncertainty and the spread of possible conclusions. The study’s coordinators now advocate that multiple analyses of the same data be done routinely. ...

All of these projects have dispelled two myths about applied statistics. The first myth is that, for any data set, there exists a single, uniquely appropriate analysis procedure. In reality, even when there are scores of teams and the data are relatively simple, analysts almost never follow the same analytic procedure.

The second myth is that multiple plausible analyses would reliably yield similar conclusions. We argue that whenever researchers report a single result from a single statistical analysis, a vast amount of uncertainty is hidden from view. And although we endorse recent science-reform efforts, such as large-scale replication studies, preregistration and registered reports, these initiatives are not designed to reveal statistical fragility by exploring the degree to which plausible alternative analyses can alter conclusions. In summary, formal methods, old and new, cannot cure model myopia, because they are firmly rooted in the single-analysis framework. ..."

One statistical analysis must not rule them all Any single analysis hides an iceberg of uncertainty. Multi-team analysis can reveal it.