The Overpopulation Panic Dates Back to Odysseus’s Time

Recommendable! Food for thought!

"... In Greek mythology, the Trojan War was a deadly conflict that Zeus orchestrated to fight human overpopulation. According to a surviving fragment of The Cypria (a prequel to Homer’s Iliad and Odyssey):

There was a time when the countless tribes of men, though wide-dispersed, oppressed the surface of the deep-bosomed earth, and Zeus saw it and had pity and in his wise heart resolved to relieve the all-nurturing earth of men by causing the great struggle of the Trojan War, that the load of death might empty the world. And so the heroes were slain in Troy, and the plan of Zeus came to pass. ..."

"... A study published recently in the journal Sustainable Development recommends that humanity aim to more than halve the global population, to about 4 billion, in order to improve long-term sustainability." What a nonsense!

The Overpopulation Panic Dates Back to Odysseus’s Time "The Trojan War was, according to one ancient account, a population-control measure by Zeus."

Not all Coloradans want to share their cities with Canada geese and their poop. Really!

What about Arizonans? I can tell from my neighborhood here in the Phoenix metro area that every year we have a large number of geese poop droppings on sidewalks, trails etc.

If you don't know geese poop droppings, they are huge (maybe comparable to dog poop)!

Let me briefly hypothesize that we have generally overpopulation issues with birds in Western urban areas!

Caveat: I did not read the article.

Not all Coloradans want to share their cities with Canada geese and their poop – a wildlife manager shares the control methods that work

Global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity. Really!

How often has this demagoguery been repeated over the past 2 centuries or so since Thomas Robert Malthus!

A piece of junk science! Ridiculous and laughable!

Incredible!!! One of the paper's author is the infamous Paul Ehrlich, who also published the controversial Population Bomb!

Fact are:

• World population very likely will decline over the next several decades (see e.g. Japan, China, probably India)
• Human ingenuity will save as like the last two hundred years of rapid population growth

From the abstract:

"The ecological concept of human carrying capacity is necessarily complicated because human beings are the ‘ultimate ecosystem engineers’ who moderate the environment for their benefit.

For at least the last few hundred years, human ingenuity, access to massive stocks of fossil fuels, and technological development have driven facilitation whereby increasing human abundance has promoted higher population growth rates. However, this positive relationship broke down during the 1950s, and by 1962, the global human population entered a phase where the growth rate consistently declined as population increased.

The onset of this negative phase occurred 8 years before a global biocapacity deficit began in 1970. The onset of the negative phase also varies regionally, with the lowest-income and highest fertility regions entering this phase later than higher-income regions.

A Ricker logistic model fitted to the negative phase predicts that the global population could reach 11.7–12.4 billion people between 2067 and 2076 [totally absurd!!!].

The same model fitted to the facilitation phase predicts a maximum population of 2.5 billion people that Earth might be able to maintain [Totally absurd!!!]. The negative phase also correlates strongly with the trend in global temperature anomaly, ecological footprint, and total emissions, with more of their variation explained by increasing population size rather than increasing per-capita consumption.

The Earth cannot sustain the future human population, or even today’s, without a major overhaul of socio-cultural practices for using land, water, energy, biodiversity, and other resources."

Global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity - IOPscience

First published 1968

Global human population is pushing Earth past its breaking point. Really!

Such or similar false apocalyptic claims have been made frequently for the past 50 years or so!

Human ingenuity has already defeated many of those and other apocalyptic claims in the past!

Look at the chart below, this is primitive trend extrapolation. Yes, the growth of human population since about 1800 AD was extreme and a miracle, but it will not continue like this!

This is superstition, not science! Alarmism and hysteria! Perhaps very lucrative for these pseudo scientists behind this study!

When scientists call for authoritarian central government watch out!

I am not sure why any journal today would publish such rubbish again!

Actually, world population may even decrease over the next several decades. The population of e.g. China and Japan is already shrinking. E.g. Germany's German population may also be shrinking. I bet also India's population growth is already slowing and so on.

"Earth has already exceeded its ability to support the global population sustainably, with new research warning of increasing pressure on food security, climate stability, and human well-being. However, slowing population growth and raising global awareness could still offer humanity some hope. ..."

From the abstract:

"The ecological concept of human carrying capacity is necessarily complicated because human beings are the ‘ultimate ecosystem engineers’ who moderate the environment for their benefit.

For at least the last few hundred years, human ingenuity, access to massive stocks of fossil fuels, and technological development have driven facilitation whereby increasing human abundance has promoted higher population growth rates.

However, this positive relationship broke down during the 1950s, and by 1962, the global human population entered a phase where the growth rate consistently declined as population increased.

The onset of this negative phase occurred 8 years before a global biocapacity deficit began in 1970. The onset of the negative phase also varies regionally, with the lowest-income and highest fertility regions entering this phase later than higher-income regions.

A Ricker logistic model fitted to the negative phase predicts that the global population could reach 11.7–12.4 billion people between 2067 and 2076. The same model fitted to the facilitation phase predicts a maximum population of 2.5 billion people that Earth might be able to maintain [???]. 

The negative phase also correlates strongly with the trend in global temperature anomaly, ecological footprint, and total emissions, with more of their variation explained by increasing population size rather than increasing per-capita consumption.

The Earth cannot sustain the future human population, or even today’s, without a major overhaul of socio-cultural practices [???] for using land, water, energy, biodiversity, and other resources."

Global human population is pushing Earth past its breaking point

Global human population has surpassed Earth's sustainable carrying capacity

Figure 1. Global human population size from 1000 to present (main figure) and from 1800 to present

Why Indian Cities Are Cracking Down on Pigeon Feeding with Palki Sharma

Food for thought! Pardon my pun! This video does not even mention that urban areas are facing bird overpopulation issues due to lack of predators.

I would also argue that e.g. there is a bird overpopulation issue going on here in Phoenix metro, Arizona.

Human Dominance Soars While Wild Biomass and Movement Decline. Really!

So what is the point of these two new studies? Biomass hysteria and alarmism? Exercises in futility?

In 1850, world human population was around 1.2 billion. In 2025, it is about 8.2 billion. So what! The population of China and Japan are already shrinking, while the population of India, Africa and Europe will follow soon.

Human Dominance Soars While Wild Biomass and Movement Decline - www.caltech.edu "Two new studies quantify key features of human and animal presence on Earth.

The first study finds that the movement of human biomass today is 40 times greater than that of all wild land mammals, birds, and arthropods combined. Another study reveals that the combined biomass of wild land and marine mammals has plummeted by about 70 percent since 1850, whereas the biomass of humans has soared by roughly 700 percent and that of domesticated animals by 400 percent; those two categories have a combined biomass approaching about 1.1 billion tons."

Egypt's resource crisis: Water, food, and a surging population

Recommendable!

Significant proportion of world's rural population missing from global estimates by as much as 50%

How good are actually our estimates of total world population?

What about the urban population? I bet it is not better than rural population.

They say demography is destiny! Maybe it is a guessing game too or anything but an exact science! 😊

From the abstract:

"Numerous initiatives towards sustainable development rely on global gridded population data. Such data have been calibrated [???] primarily for urban environments, but their accuracy in the rural domain remains largely unexplored. This study systematically validates global gridded population datasets in rural areas, based on reported human resettlement from 307 large dam construction projects in 35 countries. We find large discrepancies between the examined datasets, and, without exception, significant negative biases of −53%, −65%, −67%, −68%, and −84% for WorldPop, GWP, GRUMP, LandScan, and GHS-POP, respectively. This implies that rural population is, even in the most accurate dataset, underestimated by half compared to reported figures. To ensure equitable access to services and resources for rural communities, past and future applications of the datasets must undergo a critical discussion in light of the identified biases. Improvements in the datasets’ accuracies in rural areas can be attained through strengthened population censuses, alternative population counts, and a more balanced calibration of population models."

'Significant proportion' of world's rural population missing from global estimates, says study

Global gridded population datasets systematically underrepresent rural population

Fig. 2: Locations of the 307 rural areas analysed in this study.

The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Think. Really!

This propaganda and demagoguery about population is sickening and so primitive! More alarmism and hysteria! Humbug!

Demography is destiny, but not by simplistic population growth! Demography has been abused so many times in history: more taxpayers, more recruitment of better soldiers, racism etc. etc.

Less world human population might not be so bad for out planet and natural environment after it surged beginning 1950 from under 3 billion to now 8 billion humans roaming Earth. 

Improved and further improving longevity will also contribute to slow down any population decline.

In the coming age of machine learning & artificial intelligence (AI) we depend less on extraordinary smart people to improve our future.

"... Last year was the first time in human history that the global fertility rate fell below the replacement level. ...
Ehrlich, like many others, got it wrong. What he needed to worry about was declining birth rates and population collapse. ..."

The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Think

Nigeria | A North-South Conflict?

Recommendable, except for that repeated climate change nonsense!

Endangered Parrot Species Is Thriving In Urban Areas in southern Texas. Other birds are thriving too

I would say there is an overpopulation of birds here in the Phoenix, Arizona metro area. I suspect, the situation is similar in other urban areas. Unfortunately, it is not the cute humming bird kind. Even larger birds of prey are being seen quite often.

Frequently, birds are trampling on the roofs of cars parked in carports leaving poop behind. Do you know how big goose droppings are (hint: as big as your thumb)? We had a dozen or more geese spending the summer here nearby a pond in a park like environment. 

Perhaps some bird population control measures in urban areas are necessary!

"A Texas A&M-led research team has discovered that a population of endangered red-crowned parrots is thriving in urban areas of South Texas. ..."

Endangered Parrot Species Is Thriving In Urban Areas – Eurasia Review

A red-crowned parrot, part of a population found to be thriving in areas of South Texas

800 great white sharks have visited Cape Cod in recent years: 'The Cape is among the larger white shark hotspots worldwide'

Who is hunting the apex hunter? Is this a sign of overpopulation?

800 great white sharks have visited Cape Cod in recent years: 'The Cape is among the larger white shark hotspots worldwide'

Why China Wants to Create “Childbearing” Culture in 20 Cities with Palki Sharma

China is overpopulated and too crowded! Fewer people would be great!

About 250 elephants in Malawi were relocated to another national park in July to avoid overpopulation

Amazing stuff! 

"Some 250 elephants are to be driven 350km across the country to be relocated from Liwonde to Kasungu National Park in Malawi by the end of July.

This move aims to tackle over population at Liwonde, where cases of elephants straying into human communities around the park were becoming a concern. ...
This is the second translocation in three years, with 300 elephants moved to Nkhotakota Game Reserve in 2019. ..."

Hundreds of elephants in Malawi to be relocated | Africanews

Notes On World Population

Posted: 9/18/2014

Overpopulation

The specter of overpopulation and its consequences has been debated on and off at least since Thomas R. Malthus’s famous essay “An Essay on the Principle of Population” of 1798.

We have reached 7 billion inhabitants in 2013. In 2026 (or 12 years from now), we expect to reach 8 billion and so forth (source).

I do not doubt that human ingenuity would make it possible to sustain possibly 20 or 30 or more billion humans on this planet. However, what is the benefit? Just more humans for humans sake?

Fact is that humans do not have predators like other animals or are as sensitive to the environment as plants. There is apparently no natural check on the size of the human population unless e.g. the earth is struck by another large asteroid. Thus, each human, I would believe, is largely responsible for the overall world population size.

Brief Population Policy History

I would believe that over most of modern history, population policy had or still has a high precedence. The impetus of national population policy was simply to enlarge the population as much and as fast as is possible. The larger the head count, the larger the political power of a nation.

In particular, Western countries still subsidize families by the number of children.

Obviously, this pro growth policy can not go on any longer.

Environmentalism

I would argue that the environmentalism in most of its manifestations observed today and in recent decades boils down in essence to a tenet that too many humans roam the world. Thus, to slow down the growth of or even shrinking the world population would be beneficial to environment we share with landscapes, plants and animals.

Authoritarian Approach

A classical liberal approach is clearly distinct from leftist, authoritarian, or progressive approaches in which usually the government is coercing or incentivizing its citizens in some form to influence population size.

Many of the approaches taken in the past were authoritarian or totalitarian control measures undertaken by government like in China or India. The many negative and inhumane consequences are well known, e.g. forced abortion, severe penalties for having too many children, more ageing parents without children, a surplus of permanent male bachelors.

In conclusion, authoritarian approaches should be objected!

Classical Liberal Approach

First of all, parents should be free to choose how many children they want to raise. However, parents who choose to have children are fully responsible financially and otherwise.

Unleash free market economies and individual freedom and responsibility and population growth will be kept in check naturally through economic prosperity without requiring any significant government intervention.

It is high time to privatize the education of our children. Government in most countries has usurped way too much control over how our children are educated. Government directed education is a brainwash.

Any government subsidies of any kind that encourage citizens to have more children should be abolished and strictly avoided.

Government mandated Ponzi schemes like pay as you go retirement benefits systems are to be phased out and privatized as fast as possible.

Health care is first of all an individual responsibility. Any government run health care is to be completely phased out and privatized as fast as possible.

Exponential Technological Revolution

I have blogged here about this subject before.

For the past 10-20 years, we have been living in a time of extraordinary rapid technological progress across the board with ubiquitous effects on every living being. This progress is unprecedented in human history and in all likelihood this revolution will go on for decades to come.

Some of the foreseeable, near to medium term consequences are:

1. Life expectancy and individual health as well as well being is to increase significantly. Future babies will be born with customized capabilities and features we can only dream of today
2. Robots will take on more and more chores of everyday life and in businesses
3. Genetic engineering will greatly improve cognitive capabilities of human brains. Where in the past the probability of giving birth to or raise someone with the IQ of e.g. Albert Einstein was very small, in the future many children could be born with a similar IQ or even an higher IQ. Possibly, human intelligence will completely redefined.
4. Computers will be integrated with or linked to the human brain. The potential of this development are incredible

Overall, this revolution suggests, we do not need more than perhaps 8-10 billion people or less on this planet. This is not to be construed as a hard limit, but as something to think about.

The Coal Question Revisited

Motivation & Relevance

Who and when originated those recurrent notions of “The Limits To Growth” (1972), “Peak Oil”, “Overpopulation” (1798) and the like? Something that piqued my curiosity. In my opinion, these are all fallacies or results of lazy analysis and some form of determinism.

Not surprisingly, if they are fallacious notions, then they consequently lead to wrong if not sometimes dangerous prescriptions.

The Coal Question

The book by this title is one of the best known publications by economist William Stanley Jevons (1835 – 1882).

In this book Jevons recognized the importance of energy in economic production. He raised the issue that since coal was a limited resource that sooner or later prosperity and progress would succumb to declining extraction of coal. He also contended that population growth could not continue in the face of increasing coal depletion.

Fallacies

In these cases, conclusions and forecasts are based on determinism and simplistic forecasts. Human ingenuity, the now famous unknowns and necessity is the mother of invention are omitted or overlooked.

Human Ingenuity – A little Understood Concept

Wikipedia, e.g. has a very unsatisfactory entry under human ingenuity as of 6/9/2013, which I find surprising. Even the world’s largest encyclopedia is no resource on this subject. Encyclopedia Britannica does not seem to have any entry on this subject.

Like inventions or innovations, humans are still rather clueless about scientific or technological progress.