Bad news, if confirmed! This is quite an upward correction, if performed properly! What can be done to reduce the high number of addictive drug casualties? Something Western societies have been struggling with for over 50 years.
"Opioid-related deaths in England and Wales in the past decade were 55% higher than previously recorded, amounting to 13,000+ heroin and opioid deaths missed in official statistics from 2011 to 2022 ..."
"... Research from King's College London, shared exclusively with BBC News, found that there were 39,232 opioid-related deaths between 2011 and 2022, more than 50% higher than previously known. ..."
"... Whilst the total number of drug deaths is accurate, the count for deaths due to specific substances is limited by the fact the ONS does not have access to post-mortem reports or toxicology results.
Instead, the accuracy of figures depends on the information provided by the coroner on the death certificate. If that is missing information, such as when an individual dies from using multiple drugs at the same time – known as polydrug use – and it is recorded with ambiguous terms such as ‘multidrug overdose’, the ONS cannot determine the individual substances involved. As a result of this incomplete information, the ONS warns that figures for drug misuse for specific substances are underestimates. ..."
From the highlights and abstract:
"Highlights
• ONS underestimates opioid deaths due to limitations in their classification system.
• Triangulating ONS and NPSUM data enabled better estimations of opioid deaths.
• Polypharmacy has likely contributed to increased undercounting of opioid deaths.
Abstract
Background
In 2023, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributed 46.8 % of fatal drug poisonings in England and Wales to opioids. However, this figure likely underrepresents the true scale of opioid-related deaths, as ONS cannot identify opioid involvement when ambiguous causes (e.g., multidrug toxicity) are used. This study used ONS and National Programme on Substance Use Mortality (NPSUM) data to provide a more comprehensive estimate of opioid-related deaths in England and Wales from 2011–2022.
Methods
Deaths were identified as opioid-related by ONS and NPSUM where opioids were explicitly named as a cause. Further cases with ambiguous causes were identified by NPSUM as opioid-related by referring to the accompanying toxicology report.
Findings
ONS has increasingly underestimated opioid-related deaths. In 2011, 574 heroin/morphine-related deaths were identified by ONS; while the estimated number was 813 (95 % CIs 765–866), reflecting a 29 % underestimate. By 2022, the underestimate had extended to 36 % (1264 deaths identified by ONS; estimated number 1980 [95 % CIs 1894–2074]). This correlates with increasing polypharmacy (median number of co-administered drugs: four in 2011, six in 2022, ρ=0.81).
Similar trends were observed for other specific opioids for which ONS data were available: methadone, dihydrocodeine, codeine, tramadol, and fentanyl.
Conclusions
Increasing polydrug use in England and Wales is likely leading to the use of ambiguous drug-related causes of death instead of every drug being individually named, resulting in an underestimation of opioid-related deaths. This discrepancy has significant implications for funding, policy and public health initiatives aimed at addressing the UK’s escalating opioid-related death crisis."
Opioid-related deaths in past decade 55% higher than recorded (original news release)
Comparison of Office for National Statistics (ONS) and National Programme on Substance Use Mortality (NPSUM) data suggests that opioid-related deaths in England & Wales have been systematically underestimated (open access) "Opioid-related deaths from 2011 to 2022 are 54.7% higher than recorded, according to new research by King’s. Analysis by researchers puts the estimated number of deaths at 39,232 compared to 25,364 deaths previously reported."
Fig. 1. Year-on-year trends in proportion of deaths due to specific opioids estimated to be captured by ONS (blue) and the median number of drugs detected at post-mortem in deaths reported to the NPSUM (orange)
