Ah, this nonsense again of so called "unintended consequences"! This consequences were well known beforehand and accepted as an outcome!
Cui bono? China! The Chinese communists don't care about Western sanctions against rogue states.
Surprisingly, South Korea appears to be the second largest non compliant importer! The working paper only provides this explanation in a footnote "to maintain refinery operations at full capacity or because their refineries are optimized for slightly different crude varieties produced abroad."
"We examine the rise of dark shipping—oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection—amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia.
Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers.
From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly—43% of global seaborne crude exports—with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fueling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics."
The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions Through the Dark Shipping of Sanctioned Oil | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
