New research suggests the lower stratosphere contains tons more ultrafine aerosol particles than previously thought

More evidence that global warming is a hoax and climate change is a religion!

We still know far too little about the highly complex natural phenomenon called climate! Climate change has become a major subject for demagogues and profiteers!

"Some of the particles with the biggest impact on stratospheric chemistry are so small they have remained mostly invisible to scientists—until now.

New research in Science suggests the lower stratosphere contains tons more ultrafine aerosol particles than previously thought; they are carried upward by rising air currents and atmospheric mixing from the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere. Despite their tiny size, the specks add up to large amounts of surface area where atmospheric reactions can occur, some of which can break down ozone and scatter sunlight.

To study these hard-to-detect particles, researchers used instruments aboard NASA’s WB-57 high-altitude research aircraft during the Stratospheric Aerosol Processes, Budget, and Radiative Effects (SABRE) mission in 2023, and measured aerosols up to 19 kilometers above Earth. Particles smaller than 150 nanometers across made up most of the total aerosol surface area, accounting for as much as 90% of the surface area in some regions.

These sub-150-nanometer particles also acted like sponges for condensable vapors: Gases that might otherwise form new aerosols or bulk up larger ones instead stuck to the tiny particles. As they aged, the specks collided, clumped together, and gradually grew larger and fewer. ..."

From the editor's summary and abstract:

"Editor’s summary

The lower stratosphere is rife with a class of extremely small aerosols rich in organic compounds that have been largely underappreciated until now. Lyu et al. showed that these particles, most of which originate in and are transported from the troposphere, dominate the surface area available for heterogeneous chemistry and constitute the major sink for condensable vapors. The consequences of these particles on heterogeneous chemistry and aerosol microphysical processes in the lower stratosphere may be considerable, particularly for geoengineering proposals that involve injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. ...

Structured Abstract

INTRODUCTION

The lower stratosphere is a complex and fascinating region of the atmosphere where air from the troposphere below enters and mixes with air that has been in the stratosphere for years. This region is particularly important to climate and atmospheric chemistry because aerosol particles scatter solar radiation and provide surfaces for heterogeneous reactions that affect stratospheric ozone. Further, many proposed albedo modification by stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) efforts, a form of “geoengineering,” would emit aerosol particles or precursors in this region of the stratosphere to scatter more sunlight to space and cool Earth’s surface. A thorough understanding of the processes that govern aerosol sources, sinks, and characteristics in the lower stratosphere is essential to understand these effects.

RATIONALE

... Therefore, previous measurements have not accurately determined the surface area of these nanoparticles nor quantified their evolution in the stratosphere.

RESULTS

Using multiple instruments on a high-altitude research aircraft, we measured the size distribution and composition of particles in the lower stratosphere at altitudes up to 19 km. Particles with diameters <150 nm dominated the aerosol surface area. These small particles mixed and coagulated with the larger stratosphere background particles, resulting in a bimodal size distribution in the lower stratosphere.

A chemistry-climate model did not replicate this bimodal size distribution.

Our measurements show two distinct sources for the small-particle mode. In older stratospheric air they are sulfuric acid with metals from meteors. In younger stratospheric air influenced by the troposphere, the small-particle mode is mostly tropospheric particles with high organic content, which will affect their reactivity with gas-phase species.

CONCLUSION

This work provides well-resolved measurements of sub–150-nm particles in the lower extratropical stratosphere over a wide range of stratospheric ages. Because the small particles were observed previously in limited observations in stratospheric air at altitudes <13 km, as well as in earlier test flights for this study, this bimodal structure is likely a consistent feature of the extratropical lower stratosphere.  ..."

ScienceAdviser

An unrecognized mode of small particles in the lower stratosphere (no public access)

The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review

Again a science journal publishes some rubbish about global warming! Fact is that climatology is a very complex science that we still do not understand very well. 

When pseudo scientists engage in alarmism and hysteria like with this article! Was this done for more funding?

1.5 °C is a joke by charlatans not scientists! Nobody is able to measure global atmospheric temperature with such accuracy!

"Tipping elements" or "tipping points" what is that? Smells a lot like junk science!

This article appears to repeat a litany of claims by environmentalists like "deforestation in the Amazon" etc.

From the abstract:

"Due to insufficient emission reductions in recent years, it is increasingly likely that global warming will exceed the 1.5 °C temperature limit in the late 2020s or 2030s. As a result, several Earth system tipping elements [???] could, at least temporarily, have their tipping points [???] surpassed, posing risks of large-scale and profound structural change.

Tipping does not always occur immediately upon crossing such a critical threshold. If the length of time the driver is beyond the critical level is short enough, tipping could still be avoided for some slow-responding elements of the climate system.

An improved understanding is therefore needed of whether tipping remains avoidable, for which systems, and under what conditions. Here, we review how minimising the magnitude and duration of any temperature overshoot beyond 1.5 °C could decrease tipping risks.

Tipping elements with fast response times, such as warm-water coral reefs, are especially vulnerable to overshoot. In contrast, those with slow response times, such as polar ice sheets, may be less sensitive to temporary overshoot. Potential interactions between tipping elements and additional human pressures, such as deforestation in the Amazon or pollution and overfishing of coral reef habitats, may further lower tipping points, narrowing the range of overshoot trajectories that can still avoid it.

The vulnerability of many tipping elements, even under shorter overshoot conditions, underscores that global warming must peak below 2 °C [???] above pre-industrial levels, return to below 1.5 °C as quickly as possible (i.e. within this century), and to around 1 °C thereafter to limit tipping point risks."

The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review - IOPscience

Fig. 2. Overshooting 1.5 °C risks crossing Earth system tipping points. Illustrative temperature overshoot pathways, exceeding and then returning to below 1.5 °C (solid black line) and other stabilisation pathways (dashed black lines), dependent on uncertainties in future emissions and Earth system feedbacks.

Scientists break ‘decades of gridlock’ in climate modeling

Finally, there is hope for better and more accurate weather forecasting!

Maybe soon, the latest climate models will confirm that the Global Warming/Climate Change was a hoax!

"In brief

• Gravity waves are a source of uncertainty in climate models because they are too small and short-lived to appear in models designed to cover the whole planet.
• A new Stanford-led study shows how machine learning algorithms that predict the effects of gravity waves can be incorporated into global climate models.
• The approach shows a path toward better modeling of other small-scale systems, like clouds, and could improve understanding of future weather patterns.

...

Climate models don’t fully capture gravity waves because they are often based on a grid of 100-by-100-kilometer square columns. In each column, physics equations describe the movement of air and water. Many gravity waves are too small to register at this resolution, like a ripple in a puddle that a low-resolution photo doesn’t capture. Other gravity waves ripple out over distances long enough to cross 10 or more squares in the grid. But, due to computational constraints, climate models do not capture horizontal gravity wave movement.  ..."

From the abstract:

"Gravity waves (GWs) make crucial contributions to the middle atmospheric circulation. Yet, their climate model representation remains inaccurate, leading to key circulation biases.

This study introduces a set of three neural networks (NNs) that learn to predict GW fluxes (GWFs) from multiple years of high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis. The three NNs: a  ANN, a  ANN-CNN, and an Attention UNet embed different levels of horizontal nonlocality in their architecture and are capable of representing nonlocal GW effects that are missing from current operational GW parameterizations. The NNs are evaluated offline on both time-averaged statistics and time-evolving flux variability.

All NNs, especially the Attention UNet, accurately recreate the global GWF distribution in both the troposphere and the stratosphere. Moreover, the Attention UNet most skillfully predicts the transient evolution of GWFs over prominent orographic and nonorographic hotspots, with the 

 model being a close second. Since even ERA5 does not resolve a substantial portion of GWFs, this deficiency is compensated by subsequently applying transfer learning on the ERA5-trained ML models for GWFs from a 1.4 km global climate model. It is found that the re-trained models both (a) preserve their learning from ERA5, and (b) learn to appropriately scale the predicted fluxes to account for ERA5's limited resolution.

Our results highlight the importance of embedding nonlocal information for a more accurate GWF prediction and establish strategies to complement abundant reanalysis data with limited high-resolution data to develop machine learning-driven parameterizations for missing mesoscale processes in climate models."

Scientists break ‘decades of gridlock’ in climate modeling | Stanford Report "In global climate models, researchers have harnessed AI to accurately model atmospheric gravity waves, ripples of air that affect the polar vortex, winter weather, and climate patterns."

Offline Performance of a Nonlocal Deep Learning Parameterization for Climate Model Representation of Atmospheric Gravity Waves (open access)

Fig. 1 (left) Temperature perturbations (in K) associated with gravity waves (GWs) over the Drake Passage and the Southern Ocean on 18 July 2015 06 UTC, as resolved in ERA5,

(middle) the momentum flux  (units mPa) associated with the excited GWs, and (right) the momentum flux predicted using an Attention UNet convolutional neural network trained on 3 years of ERA5 data.

Meereswindparks heizen die Atmosphäre auf - Klimaschau 242

Sehr empfehlenswert! Wie zu erwarten massive Windfarmen verändern das lokale Klima!

Earth climate and planet Earth movements in space

Earth is a sort of spaceship inside the Milky Way galaxy and a ball with a moving axis circling around the sun. If I am not totally mistaken then the effects of all these planet Earth movements on the climate on Earth are not well understood to this day.

The Milky Way itself travels through space (According to Google: "it's moving at roughly 2.2 million km/h (1.3 million mph) relative to the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) reference frame").

Our solar system travels within the Milky Way galaxy. According to Google: "The Solar System travels through the Milky Way by orbiting its center, where a supermassive black hole resides, completing one full lap (a galactic year) in about 230 million years at roughly 240 km/s (828,000 km/h)".

The Earth axis rotates in cycles of about 26,000 years. This axis precession also wobbles meaning the cycle of the axis is not a perfect circle as in geometry and the wobbles are of a shorter duration! These wobbles appear to be called nutation motions.

What about the orbital eccentricity of the Earth relative to the sun? "The eccentricity of Earth's orbit is currently about 0.0167; its orbit is nearly circular." However, "Over hundreds of thousands of years, the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit varies from nearly 0.0034 to almost 0.058 as a result of gravitational attractions among the planets." "The timescale of Earth’s eccentricity variation is ~400,000 years with a superimposed 100,000 year cycle.  There is also an unimportant 2.1 million year cycle."(Source)

Then there are the famous Milankovitch cycles that "describe the collective effects of changes in the Earth's movements on its climate over thousands of years."
How do we really know about these cycles and their effect on climate?
Where are we currently in this Milankovitch cycle? 

How about the Equatorial bulge (aka  oblate ellipsoid) "The planet Earth has a rather slight equatorial bulge; its equatorial diameter is about 43 km (27 mi) greater than its polar diameter, with a difference of about 1⁄298 of the equatorial diameter.". The bulge is not constant over time.

The Earth's rotation is slowing over time. What effect does this have on climate? According to Google: "Earth's rotation is gradually slowing down over millions of years due to the Moon's tidal pull, lengthening our days by about 1.8 milliseconds per century, but recent climate change, especially melting ice redistributing mass, has caused short-term fluctuations, even making the Earth spin slightly faster at times"

Caveat: I did not have the time to do more investigations into the link of all these Earth movements and climate on Earth. However, my impression is that this link has been poorly researched so far. It is easier and more ideological convenient for scientists and socialists and good for business to blame CO2!

Source

  Rotation   Precession  Nutation in obliquity of a planet (Source)

New climate modeling up to the year 2100 forecasts future extreme precipitation events. Really!

Most likely as flawed as all the previous climate model forecasts! That the AAAS disseminates such stuff without any qualification is disturbing!

We can not even forecast weather accurately beyond 48 hours! Climate is a way too complex natural phenomenon! There is still very little we know about climate change.

These researchers are also trying to fool the public by claiming that the forecast accuracy was increased by high spatial resolution.

Remember much of the global warming/climate change hoax heavily depends on climate model forecasts!

"A hyper-real climate future

For all their usefulness, the forecasts that come from traditional climate models have always had an Impressionist flair, caused by the coarse resolution needed to simulate Earth’s evolution many times over. But now an unprecedented series of high-resolution model runs has drawn the planet’s future to 2100 with the sharp edges of a hyper-realist—with some surprising results.

Calculated with some 900 days of supercomputing time, these model runs found our atmosphere will have far more severe rainfall extremes than traditionally projected, due in large part to its ability to recreate massive chains of thunderstorms. The model also holds many other insights that are still to be unpacked, including potential explanations for recent mysterious cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean and suggestions that the Atlantic’s massive overturning current could be surprisingly resilient."

From the abstract:

"Extreme precipitation events are driven by complex multiscale atmospheric dynamic interactions, fuelled by available moisture. They are expected to intensify with climate change, posing increasing risks to human communities and ecosystems. However, current low-resolution climate models struggle to accurately represent key extreme precipitation-generating phenomena, limiting our ability to generate robust and reliable future projections. Here we present an ensemble of climate simulations with a 10-to-25-km resolution and an improved representation of mesoscale convective systems to assess future changes in daily extreme precipitation and its drivers.

Our high-resolution simulations more realistically capture the observed spatial distribution and intensity of daily extreme precipitation over the historical period than the 100-km resolution counterparts.

In a future scenario with high carbon dioxide emissions [???], daily extreme precipitation over land could increase by about 41% by 2100, mainly as a result of increased mesoscale moisture convergence.

The impact of this dynamical contribution to extreme precipitation is underestimated by a factor of three in the low-resolution model.

These results highlight the crucial role of high-resolution climate modelling in constraining future extremes and informing more effective climate risk assessments and adaptation strategies."

ScienceAdviser

High-resolution climate model forecasts a wet, turbulent future "With details as fine as short-term weather forecasts, model achieves newfound accuracy"

Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence (no public access)

This photo accompanies this demagoguery! What a bad joke!

A reconstruction of Global mean sea level (GMSL) changes over the past 4.5 million years

Amazing stuff! Climate changes all the time for millions of years!

We still know very little about our oceans!

"Global mean sea level (GMSL) and climate are inextricably intertwined [???], a point of great relevance in our warming world. Clark et al. present a reconstruction of GMSL changes over the past 4.5 million years that accounts for temperature-driven changes in the oxygen isotopic compositions of the main ice sheets, as well as changes in ice volume and ocean temperature. This approach provides important insights about ice sheet volumes and variability and the forces that drive conditions over time."

From the abstract:

"Structured Abstract

INTRODUCTION

The oxygen isotopic composition (18O/16O) of benthic foraminifera shells (expressed as δ18Ob) has long provided a simple but powerful record of the long-term evolution of combined changes in deep ocean temperature (expressed as δ18OT) and global mean sea level, with the latter recorded by changes in the δ18O of seawater (expressed as δ18Osw) due to ice sheet growth and decay. More recently, a widely used strategy to isolate δ18Osw by regressing the δ18Ob record against times of known sea level reinforced the longstanding inference from the δ18Ob record that sea level change during the past 4.5 million years (Myr) experienced two transitions towards lower sea level lowstands.

The first transition [3 to 2.5 million years ago (Ma)] represents increasingly larger Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets that fluctuated with a 41-thousand-year (kyr) periodicity.

The second middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) (1.2 to 0.62 Ma) is characterized by even larger fluctuations of NH ice sheets, which changed from a 41-kyr periodicity to a dominant 100-kyr periodicity.

In both cases, the transitions occurred in the absence of any changes in the orbital forcing by the Sun, suggesting that the cause(s) of these transitions was internal to the climate system.

RATIONALE

Despite general agreement that each of the two transitions represented an increase in the size of NH ice sheet fluctuations, the regression-based method to reconstruct sea level remains uncertain because by default, it reproduces the δ18Ob variability. Indeed, multiple lines of evidence—including from terrestrial, marine, and geophysical records that constrain ice sheet extent, as well as from δ18Osw which is derived by subtracting known δ18OT from the δ18Ob record—suggest that fluctuations of large NH ice sheets have occurred throughout the past 2.5 Myr, with the MPT thus recording a change in periodicity but not in ice sheet size. If correct, this scenario poses new challenges in understanding the 41-kyr periodicity of large ice sheets in a warmer world as well as the change in ice sheet variability during the MPT.

RESULTS

We converted a new δ18Osw record to sea level by applying a mass-balance approach that accounts for time-varying temperature and ice volume effects on the δ18O of ice sheets.

We find that the first transition in the δ18Ob record represents an increase in NH ice sheet fluctuations to a size that then reoccurred throughout the remaining 2.5 Myr whereas the second transition represents a decrease in mean ocean temperature accompanied by an increase in its variability.

Our climate model results show that the height of large pre-MPT ice sheets allowed them to be in surface mass balance under warmer-than-present global temperatures.

Growth and decay of these large ice sheets was paced by 41-kyr obliquity forcing, with deglaciation occurring once ice sheets exceeded a certain size and became unstable. We propose that changes in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle during the MPT modulated the response of global temperature and ice sheets to 41-kyr obliquity forcing, resulting in the emergence of the ~100-kyr signal.

CONCLUSION

Our work creates a new paradigm for the development of the Pleistocene ice ages, in particular the idea that large changes in sea level occurred throughout the Pleistocene rather than temperature varying with ice volume as the Earth cooled. In doing so, our findings modify as well as add several fundamental challenges to our understanding of ice sheet–climate interactions.

Underlying each of these challenges is the fact that the dominant orbital-scale sea level variability and its changes over the past 3 Myr are not the ones that would be predicted solely by the associated orbital forcing, suggesting internal feedbacks of the climate system that we propose are largely driven by changes in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the effects of these changes on CO2 and global temperature. High-resolution ice core CO2 records that extend beyond 0.8 Ma are needed to test our hypotheses."

In Science Journals | Science

Global mean sea level over the past 4.5 million years

A warming epoch 5.3 to 2.6 million years ago similar to current global warming

Well if this is correct, then this is another hint that global warming/climate change is indeed a hoax as far as human influence is concerned!

Remember: The last ice age called the Little Ice Age ended only in the first half of the 19th century.

"... the Pliocene, a toasty epoch 5.33 to 2.58 million years ago which is often used as an analog for Earth under global warming. ..."

Google search result about the pliocene: "... Scientists study the Pliocene to understand climate change, as it was the last time Earth sustained global temperatures higher than today and had similar atmospheric CO2 levels to the present. ..."

ScienceAdviser

The Achievement of Climate Science. Really!

Yes, but maybe too many of the involved scientists became religious and have self radicalized (like the prophets of doom) to continuously present the public with the greatest global hoax/scam of recent times.

How many climate scientists sell this scam for more research funding despite having doubts?

Fact is, we still understand very little about the very complex climate phenomenon, not to mention the changing solar activity of our sun etc.! Climate models are still largely junk, but these scientists heavily depend on and abuse it. A few decades of intense research and data collection is not enough to model climate change over millennia!

Caveat: I have not had the time to look more into this new series by Quanta magazine.

"For decades, many thousands of scientists have acted like sensors across the globe, collecting data from air, ice, sediment, ocean, cloud, flock, forest and more. Each dataset on its own says just a little about the broader climate. But when many researchers compile their insights into integrative climate models, Earth is revealed. Their collective work tells a profound and fascinating story of how rock and sky and water and life spin up Earth’s climate. It can help us not only appreciate the precious sliver of temperate conditions we occupy, but also make sense of the changes we’ve brought to a system both exquisitely sensitive and resilient. ..."

🌍 The Achievement of Climate Science "Climate science is the largest, most significant scientific collaboration in history."

African societies survived climate shifts for millennia by diversifying how they lived

Amazing stuff! If our distant ancestors were able to survive natural and frequent climate change, so can we!

Keep in mind: Global warming is a hoax and climate change is a religion! It is being used as a pretext by Big Government and the elite to interfere with our lives. It is among the greatest scams and scandals of at least the last 30 years!

Anthropocene climate change is obscene (aka junk science)!

"... New research covering millennia of African history reveals that livelihood diversification enabled ancient societies across the continent to adapt to major climate shifts. The findings suggest that long-term resilience to climate change is not driven by uniform solutions, but by strategies grounded in ecological fit, flexibility and local knowledge.

Africa underwent significant environmental change during the Holocene Epoch, which spans roughly the past 11,000 years. For example, the African Humid Period brought nearly 9,000 years of wetter weather to much of the continent, followed by increasingly arid conditions. As ecosystems transformed and food sources changed, societies developed flexible, locally adapted combinations of herding, farming, fishing and foraging that helped them navigate thousands of years of environmental upheaval. ..."

From the highlights and abstract:

"Science for society

For thousands of years, African societies have adapted their livelihoods with shifting climates, yet current research lacks a comprehensive understanding of how these adaptations shaped long-term resilience. This gap limits efforts to support communities facing today’s climate challenges. Our study examines how African livelihoods evolved over the past 11,000 years, using isotopic, archaeological, and ecological data to reveal patterns across different food-producing and foraging strategies.

We show that livelihood diversification—combining pastoralism, cultivation, fishing, and gathering—was key to resilience. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, landscape managers, and adaptation planners by highlighting the role of livelihood diversification in sustaining communities amid environmental change. Understanding past responses to climate shifts can inform current and future strategies for building resilience in regions facing growing socio-environmental pressures.

Highlights

• Livelihood diversification co-evolved with Holocene climate change across Africa

• C3 and C4 food-production strategies followed distinct spatiotemporal pathways

• The breadth and variability of pastoral livelihoods suggests a central adaptive role

• We offer a continental-scale reference for understanding Holocene livelihoods

Summary

Sustainability challenges are intensifying across the globe and disproportionately impacting people, landscapes, and seascapes on the front lines of climate change. In particular, African communities, who contribute least to global climate change, bear the greatest burden of its impacts.

Despite the African continent having the longest record of human-climate co-evolution globally, current research lacks an empirical continent-wide understanding of how Holocene livelihoods evolved to shape resilience today.

To fill this gap, we analyze the archaeological and ecological context of isotopic niches (c. 11,000 BP to the present), to illustrate how adaptive strategies evolved during major climatic shifts (African Humid Period: c. 14,700–5,500 BP). We characterize Holocene livelihoods—pastoralism, cultivation, hunting-gathering, and fishing—to offer a continent-wide reference and to identify the spatiotemporal diversification patterns underpinning adaptation.

This reconstruction offers critical insights into the mechanisms that shape resilience, with direct relevance for policymakers and practitioners working across climate adaptation, food security, and human well-being."

African societies survived climate shifts for millennia by diversifying how they lived

Africa-wide diversification of livelihood strategies: Isotopic insights into Holocene human adaptations to climate change (open access)

Graphical abstract

Climate change without human influence. We need more science and less superstition!

Science, not superstition please!

If you are superstitious, then please continue to believe in the deeply flawed Greenhouse Gas Theory etc.

What are climate demagogues (who think they are demigods)? Those who call others climate deniers! 😊

On a daily basis we are inundated with daily reports about the Global Warming hoax and Climate Change religion. Much of it is superstition comparable to when humans believed the earth was in the center of the universe.

Much of the so called climate science is junk science so are e.g. the climate models.

Fact is we humans still know very little about the complex phenomenon climate! Climatology is still in its infancy!

Here is my quick, unfinished theory about some major factors affecting earth's climate beyond any significant human influence and control:

1. Fluctuations of solar activity.
   Periodic, recurrent or single events etc..
   Few humans would probably doubt that the sun is perhaps the greatest influence of all on climate on earth.
   So far we still know very little of any existing cycles other than the famous, very short sunspot cycle of about every 11 years. What other, perhaps much longer cycles etc. are out there? 
2. Space travel of the solar system.
   The solar system is orbiting around the center of the Milky Way moving with an average velocity of 450,000 miles per hour. It takes about 230 to 250 million years to complete one revolution. There is even a "wobble" associate with it.
   In other words, relative to the universe, the solar system (incl. earth) are in a different location every day. What is the effect on earth's climate. None at all?
3. Precession of the earth axis
   The precession of the Earth's axis refers to the slow, conical wobble of Earth's rotational axis, taking roughly 26,000 years to complete a full cycle.
   What are the effects on earth's climate? None at all?
4. Plate tectonics
   How much is geology/geophysics involved in influencing climate on earth and how?
   There is e.g. a Ring of Fire.
5. Conveyor belts of the oceans
   How much do we really know about e.g. the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
   Supposedly, the Pacific Ocean has no conveyor belt. Maybe it is not yet even discovered.
   However, there is apparently a global conveyor belt.
   Fact is we still know very little of the influence of the oceans on climate and vice versa.
6. Ice ages and Warm periods preceding the human population explosion and the Industrial Revolution
   The many climate demagogues are almost always very fast to ignore, dismiss or downplay these facts!
   Just over the last 1000 years alone there were at least two such major periods that we know of:
   1) The Medieval Warm Period between about 950 and 1250 CE
   2) The Little Ice Age between about 1300 and 1850 CE. We are still coming out of this last Ice Age.

Why is climatology still a junk science and comparable to a pseudo religion?

Climate and how climate evolves over long time periods (like over hundreds of years) is a far too complex natural phenomenon! Our current understanding is still very poor and sorely lacking!

There seems to be a strange tendency by too many climate scientists to mislead the public about what they really know about climate on Earth. One plausible explanation for this could be pecuniary or ulterior motives like to obtain more research funding by constantly and very frequently promoting phony alarmism and hysteria. More demagogues than scientists!

Why do we learn so little about skeptical climate scientists? I bet, there are plenty of them, but for some reason they are being ignored or they don't come forward to inform the public? I suspect they are in the minority or they are intimidated or they fear for their professional career.

AAAS: President Trump seeks to end climate research at premier U.S. climate agency. Really!

Good news! Again, some cheap demagoguery coming from the once prestigious AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science)!

It is only "nearly all"! So perhaps, the remaining climate research is real science and not ideology driven!

Notice also how the AAAS in this context uses again the term "global warming", while in most other instances they use the more ambiguous and very term "climate change".

"President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to end nearly all of the climate research conducted by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), one of the country’s premier climate science agencies, according to an internal budget document seen by Science. The document indicates the White House is ready to ask Congress to eliminate NOAA’s climate research centers and cut hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists who track and study human-driven [???] global warming.

The administration is also preparing to ask for deep cuts to NASA’s science programs, according to media reports today. ..."

Trump seeks to end climate research at premier U.S. climate agency | Science | AAAS "White House aims to end NOAA’s research office; NASA also targeted"

India is a global warming hole, and scientists aren’t sure why. Really!

Is this not curious! Here is one more reason why Global Warming is a hoax and Climate Change is a religion!

What this article implies and exposes:

1. India may not be the only warming hole on Earth. How about dense population centers in China?
2. Climate models and their forecasts are junk for many reasons, this is one of them
3. Thick air pollution is actually good to mediate Global Warming. 😊
4. How does this warming hole (or cooler than normal) compare to the urban heat island effect?
5. Climatology is quite often comparable to junk science (e.g. Michael Mann's hockey stick) or more favorably to a nascent science lacking knowledge and unable to explain a complex natural phenomenon like climate. See e.g. all these hypothesis below.

"At a recent conference here on climate change in India, scientists put up a startling slide. On a world map showing how 2024 temperatures deviated from a historical baseline, many countries were colored deep red, denoting an increase of 1°C to 2°C. But one large, pale spot stood out in the tropics. ...

As Indians gird themselves for what could be a third summer in a row of extreme heat, they might be surprised to hear their country is warming more slowly than many others. Last year, India saw its highest recorded temperature and its longest spell of heat waves. But annual mean temperatures have risen by less than 0.7°C since 1901—about half the global average. ...

Air pollution is a leading hypothesis to explain the slow warming. Over the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plain, which stretches across northern India from Pakistan to Bangladesh, industry, urban traffic, dust, cooking, and crop fires conspire to produce some of the world’s worst air pollution—including aerosols that reflect solar radiation and may help cool the region. ...

Another recent study found that pollution control in China raised the average temperature there by 0.1°C between 2013 and 2019. ...

A third possible explanation is the dramatic expansion of irrigation in northern India over the past century. As water evaporates from soil or is transpired by plants, it absorbs heat from the air. ...

India’s slower warming ... mainly reflects the country’s location in the humid tropics and variability in the climate system. Pollution and irrigation might affect warming locally"

India is a global warming ‘hole,’ and scientists aren’t sure why | Science | AAAS "Despite its extreme heat waves, the country’s decadeslong warming trend amounts to half the global average"

Can you spot other warming holes? How about southern South America and southern Africa?

Klimamodelle scheitern an den einfachsten Aufgaben - Klimaschau 201

Sehr empfehlenswert! Klimamodelle sind schrott! Wir können ja nicht mal das lokale Wetter genau vorhersagen, aber Klimamodelle sind angeblich in der Lage das Klima bis zum Jahr 2100 vorherzusagen. Backcasting mit Klimamodellen ist ebenfalls ungenau. Das Phänomen Klima ist viel zu kompliziert und immer noch wenig wissenschaftlich verstanden.

Ice cores identify obscure Pacific volcano as cause of one of about three 19th century climate disasters caused by volcano eruptions

Volcanoes probably have more influence on climate than the global warming hoax and climate change religion!

When will be the next major volcano eruption darkening the skies?

This also means there were at least three major volcano related events in the 19th century. "... The most notable eruptions of Krakatoa culminated in a series of massive explosions over 26–27 August 1883, which were among the most violent volcanic events in recorded history. ..." (Source)

"The first sign of an impending cataclysm in the summer of 1831 was an eerie dimming of the Sun, which for days appeared bluish green across the Northern Hemisphere. In the ensuing weeks, foul weather and a long cold snap triggered crop failures and famines in India and Japan. The instigator was long presumed to be a climate-altering plume from a major eruption, but the volcano’s identity had been one of the great unsolved mysteries of volcanology. ...

A team led by volcanologist William Hutchison of the University of St. Andrews describes sulfur isotopes and glassy shards of ash deposited in ice core layers dated to 1831 that trace back to an obscure volcano in the remote Kuril Islands north of Japan’s Hokkaido Island. ...

“Huge hailstones destroyed crops in Europe.” Decreased rainfall during the Indian monsoon led to crop failures and a devastating famine in the eastern Indian state of Madras in 1832 and 1833 that killed about 150,000 people. About twice as many died in a famine that gripped northeastern Japan from 1832 to 1837. ...

The sulfur-laden aerosols blocked sunlight, tamping down temperatures by as much as 1°C over 2 years, according to historical records. ...

The 1831 eruption is intriguing also because it and several other major eruptions occurred near the end of the Little Ice Age, a 500-year-long big chill felt across the globe. This cluster of eruptions includes one of the biggest in recorded history: that of Indonesia’s Mount Tambora in 1815, which also cooled the planet and led to widespread harvest failures. ..."

Ice cores finger obscure Pacific volcano as cause of 19th century climate disaster | Science | AAAS

Earth’s clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

The great hoax regarding a life essential trace gas like CO2 is causing Global Warming!

Maybe humans have removed too much air pollution leading to a significant reduction in cloud cover! By the way, cloud formation is one of the many climate influencing factors still little understood by humans!

Keep in mind: Global warming is a hoax and climate change is a religion! It is being used as a pretext by Big Government and the elite to interfere with our lives. It is among the greatest scams and scandals of at least the last 30 years!

"... But Tselioudis and his colleagues now think they can explain the growing gap with evidence collected by a remarkably long-lived satellite. They find that the world’s reflective cloud cover has shrunk in the past 2 decades by a small but tangible degree, allowing more light in and boosting global warming. “I’m confident it’s a missing piece. It’s the missing piece,”  ...

pollution declines may be playing an important role in the cloud changes, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. “The observations are telling us something is definitely changing,” ... “But it’s a complicated soup of processes.” ..."

Earth’s clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming | Science | AAAS

Extreme temperatures are rising in these global ‘hotspots’. Really!

A case for the urban heat island effect and flawed surface temperature measurements!

There is a strong suspicion here again that we are dealing with pseudo science produced by Columbia University and published in the prestigious PNAS!

This study might very well be another example of climate models being junk!

Keep in mind: Global warming is a hoax and climate change is a religion! It is being used as a pretext by Big Government and the elite to interfere with our lives. It is among the greatest scams and scandals of at least the last 30 years!

Is it not curious that most of these mapped hotspots coincide with centers of urbanization and areas of dense population around the world! A strong indication that actually the urban heat island effect is in effect!

Just look at Europe and Australia and Chile. Take in particular the very thinly populated continent of Australia, where these so called hotspots happen to coincide with Sidney, Melbourne, Canberra, and Adelaide, the major urban centers of Australia. Then we have Chile. Again the map below shows the so called hotspots are located where the major urban centers (Santiago, Valparaiso, Concepcion) are of Chile!

The map below also shows so called hotspots in the very northern and thinly populated regions of Canada. I strongly suspect flawed or even non existent historical surface temperature measurements. Similar the huge island of Greenland.

"New research has identified several regions of the globe where heatwaves are increasing at a rate far higher than state-of-the-art climate models have been projecting.  ..."

From the significance and abstract:

"Significance

Heatwaves can lead to considerable impacts on societal and natural systems. Accurate simulation of their response to warming is important for adaptation to potential climate futures. Here, we quantify changes of extreme temperatures worldwide over recent decades. We find an emergence of hotspots where the hottest temperatures are warming significantly faster than more moderate temperatures. In these regions, trends are largely underestimated in climate model simulations. Globally aggregated, we find that models struggle with both ends of the trend distribution, with positive trends being underestimated most, while moderate trends are well reproduced. Our findings highlight the need to better understand and model extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to avoid further harm.

Abstract

Multiple recent record-shattering weather events raise questions about the adequacy of climate models to effectively predict and prepare for unprecedented climate impacts on human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Here, we show that extreme heat in several regions globally is increasing significantly and faster in magnitude than what state-of-the-art climate models have predicted under present warming even after accounting for their regional summer background warming. Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall. To a lesser degree, models also underestimate observed strong trends of contraction of the upper tails in some areas, while moderate trends are well reproduced in a global perspective. Our results highlight the need to better understand and model the drivers of extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions [???] to avoid further harm from unexpected weather events."

Extreme temperatures are rising in these global ‘hotspots’

Unexplained [???] Heat-Wave ‘Hotspots’ Are Popping Up Across the Globe (original news release)

Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations

Fig. 3 Regional trends of extreme temperatures are underestimated in climate model experiments in multiple regions globally.

Regions where observed heat waves exceed trends from climate models.

It’s Actually a Huge Failure That We Can’t Control Hurricanes

Very recommendable! The article offers some background/overview on past efforts to control weather.

Yes, it is indeed astonishing that at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century, we humans are still not able to prevent hurricanes or tornadoes from causing death and injuries to humans and damages to humans structures. That is true irrespective of facts like that human structures are often built in flooding or disaster prone areas (e.g. in Florida).

It also tells you that our knowledge about weather and climate are still very limited. That is one reason among others why Global Warming is a hoax and Climate Change is a religion!

It’s Actually a Huge Failure That We Can’t Control Hurricanes | American Enterprise Institute - AEI

A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature

The Climate is changing all the time for eons of years long before humans appeared!

Celsius surface temperatures in the 30s or even 40s were quite normal! Warmer periods were longer and dominated colder periods.

According to this new study past, similar studies have probably underestimated the global mean surface temperatures.

I kind of doubt and disagree with the conclusion that "CO2 is the dominant control on Phanerozoic climate". CO2 is a trace gas measured in parts per million! What about e.g. cloud formation? We still know very little about e.g. cloud formation! Cloud formation was not even considered by these scientists!

Global Warming is a hoax and Climate Change is a religion!

Keep in mind: The reconstruction of air or surface temperatures via proxy data is controversial and not necessarily accurate or reliable. Similar climate models!

"A new study co-led by the Smithsonian and the University of Arizona offers the most detailed glimpse yet of how Earth’s surface temperature has changed over the past 485 million years. In a paper ... produce a curve of global mean surface temperature (GMST) across deep time—the Earth’s ancient past stretching over many millions of years. The new curve reveals that Earth’s temperature has varied more than previously thought over much of the Phanerozoic Eon, the past 540 million years of geologic time when life has diversified, populated land and endured multiple mass extinctions. The curve also confirms that Earth’s temperature is strongly correlated [???] to the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. ..."

"To predict how our planet might change in the future, scientists need an accurate record of the planet’s past. But deducing things like temperature changes over eons can be tricky. All of the various proxies have their flaws, and they’ve sometimes come to starkly different conclusions. But now, by combining climate models with geological data, researchers have reconstructed the last 485 million years of global temperatures. ..."

"... Polar ice caps leave distinctive geological evidence that geologists can recover (3), which has allowed mapping of how extensive these frozen regions were over the Phanerozoic Eon—the last 540 million years during which animals and plants evolved. This record shows a cycle between “icehouse” periods with large permanent ice caps and “greenhouse” periods without them. The present-day Earth is an icehouse, and it has been for the past 34 million years. The current average surface temperature is around 15°C. But were previous icehouse periods also at this temperature, and how hot were the greenhouse periods? Knowing the past temperature of Earth helps us better understand future climate changes, but measuring it is difficult. Ice cap locations depend on the positioning of the continents, which has changed substantially over time. The sparse geological record causes frequent revision of timing and extent of past glaciation. ..."

From the editor's summary and abstract:

"Editor’s summary

Understanding how global mean surface temperature (GMST) has varied over the past half-billion years, a time in which evolutionary patterns of flora and fauna have had such an important influence on the evolution of climate, is essential for understanding the processes driving climate over that interval. Judd et al. present a record of GMST over the past 485 million years that they constructed by combining proxy data with climate modeling (see the Perspective by Mills). They found that GMST varied over a range from 11° to 36°C, with an “apparent” climate sensitivity of ∼8°C, about two to three times what it is today. ...

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

A long-term geological record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) is important for understanding the history of our planet and putting present-day climate change into context. Such a record is necessary for constraining the relationship between climate and other aspects of the Earth system, including the evolution and extinction of life, and the chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans. Further, quantifying the relationship between GMST and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations can refine our understanding of Earth’s climate sensitivity and improve future predictions under anthropogenic warming.

RATIONALE

Although several Phanerozoic (the last 539 million years) temperature reconstructions exist, during the intensively studied Cenozoic Era (the last 66 million years), they are colder and less variable than individual estimates from key time periods, particularly during ice-free (greenhouse) intervals. This discrepancy suggests that existing Phanerozoic temperature records may underestimate past temperature change, and merits further investigation using a new approach.

RESULTS

Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST spanning most of the Phanerozoic Eon. PhanDA was created using data assimilation, a method that statistically integrates geological data with climate model simulations. PhanDA indicates that Earth’s temperature has varied between 11° and 36°C over the past 485 million years. This range is larger than previous reconstructions; however, PhanDA agrees well with independent GMST estimates from the Cenozoic, providing confidence in its larger dynamical range.

PhanDA reveals key features in the relationship between GMST and the pole-to-equator temperature gradient, including polar amplification (i.e., larger temperature changes at high latitudes) and a shallowing of the gradient with increasing GMST. Tropical temperatures range between 22° and 42°C, refuting the idea of a fixed upper limit on tropical warmth and suggesting that ancient life must have evolved to endure extreme heat. We parse PhanDA into five climate states and find that overall, Earth has spent more time in warmer climate states than cold ones during the Phanerozoic.

There is a strong relationship between PhanDA GMST and CO2, indicating that CO2 is the dominant control on Phanerozoic climate. The consistency of this relationship is surprising because on this timescale, we expect solar luminosity to influence climate. We hypothesize that changes in planetary albedo and other greenhouse gases (e.g., methane) helped compensate for the increasing solar luminosity through time. The GMST-CO2 relationship indicates a notably constant “apparent” Earth system sensitivity (i.e., the temperature response to a doubling of CO2, including fast and slow feedbacks) of ∼8°C, with no detectable dependence on whether the climate is warm or cold.

CONCLUSION

PhanDA provides a statistically robust estimate of GMST through the Phanerozoic. We find that Earth’s temperature has varied more dynamically than previously thought and that greenhouse climates were very warm. CO2 is the dominant driver of Phanerozoic climate, emphasizing the importance of this greenhouse gas in shaping Earth history. The consistency of apparent Earth system sensitivity (∼8°C) is surprising and deserves further investigation. More broadly, PhanDA provides critical context for the evolution of life on Earth, as well as present and future climate changes."

New Study Charts How Earth’s Global Temperature Has Drastically Changed Over the Past 485 Million Years, Driven by Carbon Dioxide (original news release) "Smithsonian-Sparked Study Co-Led by University of Arizona Underscores Perils Presented by Unprecedented [???] Rate of Human-Made Warming"

ScienceAdvisor

Hot and cold Earth through time "Reconstructing ancient Earth’s temperature reveals a global climate regulation system"

A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature (open access)

PhanDA global mean surface temperature across the last 485 million years.

Fig. 2. Phanerozoic temperature history. PhanDA reconstructed GMST for the past 485 million years.

Black line shows the median, shading corresponds to the ensemble percentile.

Blue rectangles show the maximum latitudinal ice extent (2), and 

orange dashed lines show the timing of the five major mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic (36).