Most likely as flawed as all the previous climate model forecasts! That the AAAS disseminates such stuff without any qualification is disturbing!
We can not even forecast weather accurately beyond 48 hours! Climate is a way too complex natural phenomenon! There is still very little we know about climate change.
These researchers are also trying to fool the public by claiming that the forecast accuracy was increased by high spatial resolution.
Remember much of the global warming/climate change hoax heavily depends on climate model forecasts!
"A hyper-real climate future
For all their usefulness, the forecasts that come from traditional climate models have always had an Impressionist flair, caused by the coarse resolution needed to simulate Earth’s evolution many times over. But now an unprecedented series of high-resolution model runs has drawn the planet’s future to 2100 with the sharp edges of a hyper-realist—with some surprising results.
Calculated with some 900 days of supercomputing time, these model runs found our atmosphere will have far more severe rainfall extremes than traditionally projected, due in large part to its ability to recreate massive chains of thunderstorms. The model also holds many other insights that are still to be unpacked, including potential explanations for recent mysterious cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean and suggestions that the Atlantic’s massive overturning current could be surprisingly resilient."
From the abstract:
"Extreme precipitation events are driven by complex multiscale atmospheric dynamic interactions, fuelled by available moisture. They are expected to intensify with climate change, posing increasing risks to human communities and ecosystems. However, current low-resolution climate models struggle to accurately represent key extreme precipitation-generating phenomena, limiting our ability to generate robust and reliable future projections. Here we present an ensemble of climate simulations with a 10-to-25-km resolution and an improved representation of mesoscale convective systems to assess future changes in daily extreme precipitation and its drivers.
Our high-resolution simulations more realistically capture the observed spatial distribution and intensity of daily extreme precipitation over the historical period than the 100-km resolution counterparts.
In a future scenario with high carbon dioxide emissions [???], daily extreme precipitation over land could increase by about 41% by 2100, mainly as a result of increased mesoscale moisture convergence.
The impact of this dynamical contribution to extreme precipitation is underestimated by a factor of three in the low-resolution model.
These results highlight the crucial role of high-resolution climate modelling in constraining future extremes and informing more effective climate risk assessments and adaptation strategies."
High-resolution climate model forecasts a wet, turbulent future "With details as fine as short-term weather forecasts, model achieves newfound accuracy"
Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence (no public access)
This photo accompanies this demagoguery! What a bad joke!
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