Showing posts with label epidemiology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label epidemiology. Show all posts

Monday, February 23, 2026

Six early-onset cancers like colorectal cancer rising faster in younger adults than older ones correlated with increasing obesity prevalence

Bad news!

"... The massive study combed through data from two large cancer databases to better understand the recent rise of cases in adults under 50, a trend that belies the traditional understanding of the disease as one that disproportionately affects the elderly. Though still relatively rare among those in middle age and younger, the rising incidence of several cancer types in that cohort has raised concern among experts. ...

The study examined cases that occurred between 2000 and 2017 and found 13 cancers on the rise in those under 50 in at least 10 countries, and six cancers — colorectal, cervical, pancreatic, prostate, kidney and multiple myeloma — rising faster in younger adults than in older adults in at least five.

The trends of both higher incidence and mortality in those under 50 occurred in fewer countries — in five for uterine cancer and, for colorectal cancer, three nations for females and five for males.

Colorectal cancer, particularly in North America, Europe and Oceania, drew particular attention from the authors, who said that 10 percent of global cases already occur in those under 50. ..."

From the abstract:
"Background:
The global increase in the incidence of early-onset cancers (defined as cancers diagnosed at 20-49 years old) is a serious public health problem. We investigated 1) whether the incidence trend of early-onset cancers differs from that of later-onset cancers and
2) whether both the incidence and mortality of early-onset cancers have increased concurrently.

Methods:
We utilized age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for early-onset and later-onset cancers diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and World Health Organization (WHO) mortality databases.
The national obesity prevalence among adults aged 20-49 years was obtained from the National Clinical Database. Using joinpoint regression models, we calculated average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) for cancer incidence and mortality by cancer types and countries.
We additionally conducted human development index (HDI)-stratified analyses and assessed the correlation between the obesity prevalence in younger populations and early-onset cancer incidence by country. To investigate the more recent trend of early-onset cancer mortality, we extended our mortality analysis after 2017 for cancer types and countries with statistically significant positive AAPCs in both incidence and mortality of early-onset cancers between 2000 and 2017.

Results:
Our analysis showed that 10 early-onset cancer types (thyroid cancer, breast cancer, melanoma, uterine cancer, colorectal cancer, kidney cancer, cervical cancer, pancreatic cancer, multiple myeloma, Hodgkin lymphoma) in females and 
7 early-onset cancer types (thyroid cancer, kidney cancer, testis cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, melanoma, leukemia) in males had statistically significant positive AAPCs in at least 10 countries.
Among these, the following early-onset cancer types had significantly higher AAPCs than later-onset cancer types in females: colorectal cancer (6 countries; AAPC range: 1.8-3.8%), cervical cancer (6 countries; AAPC range: 1.2-3.3%), pancreatic cancer (5 countries; AAPC range: 2.3-13.0%), and multiple myeloma (5 countries; AAPC range: 3.1-9.8%); in males: prostate cancer (12 countries; AAPC range: 3.9-18.4%), colorectal cancer (8 countries; AAPC range: 1.8-3.2%), and kidney cancer (6 countries; AAPC range: 2.0-6.0%).
We observed statistically significant positive AAPCs in both the incidence and mortality of the following early-onset cancer types: uterine cancer (5 countries) and colorectal cancer (3 countries in females and 5 countries in males). The steeper increases in early-onset cancers compared with later-onset cancers were mainly observed in the very high-HDI country group, including early-onset colorectal cancer (AAPC = 2.4%, 95% CI 2.1-2.6 in females; AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7-2.4 in males) to later-onset colorectal cancer (AAPC = -0.1%, 95% CI -0.2 to 0 in females; AAPC = -0.2%, 95% CI -0.3 to 0 in males).
We observed strong positive correlations between the increasing obesity prevalence and the rising incidence of early-onset obesity-related cancers in several countries, including Australia (7 cancer types), United Kingdom (7 cancer types), Canada (7 cancer types), Republic of Korea (7 cancer types), and USA (6 cancer types) in females and United Kingdom (7 cancer types), Canada (6 cancer types), Australia (5 cancer types), Sweden (5 cancer types), and Republic of Korea (4 cancer types) in males. Although we did not observe an apparent spike after 2017 in many countries, we observed continued increases in the mortality of certain cancer types, such as uterine cancer (Japan, Republic of Korea, United Kingdom, USA, and Ecuador) in females and colorectal cancer (Argentina, Canada, United Kingdom, and USA) in males.

Conclusions:
The increase in many early-onset cancer types was significantly higher than that of later-onset cancers, and the incidence and mortality of certain early-onset cancer types (such as colorectal cancer) increased simultaneously. Our study highlights global differences in cancer incidence and mortality trends of early-onset and later-onset cancers."

Six cancers rising faster in younger adults than older ones — Harvard Gazette "Large new global study fuels growing concern over trend of increases in several types"


Friday, January 23, 2026

How does Flu transmission operate in close quarters like a hotel room with several infected individuals

Amazing stuff!

"A group of volunteers spent days locked in a small hotel room with people actively infected with the flu. They played games, shared objects, and exercised together in conditions designed to help the virus spread. Yet not a single person caught influenza.

The unexpected finding comes from a well-designed study that set out to answer a basic question: how does flu really spread? ...

How efficiently the virus spreads depends on several factors, including how much virus an infected person sheds, the temperature and humidity of a room, and how close people are to one another. ...

They brought together groups of participants in a hotel room, mixing people with active influenza infections, referred to as donors, with uninfected volunteers, referred to as recipients. The aim was simple: see whether flu would spread under conditions designed to favour transmission.

Despite prolonged close contact over several days, no recipient became infected. ..."

From the abstract:
"A previous controlled human influenza transmission trial produced minimal transmission using nasal inoculation of an egg adapted virus. Therefore, we implemented a new trial with naturally infected Donors.
We recruited healthy Recipients for four, two-week hotel quarantine cohorts and naturally infected, qRT-PCR confirmed Donors for two cohorts. Five Donors (mean age: 21; 80% female; two H1N1, three H3N2, one for cohort 24b and 4 for 24c, Jan-Feb 2024) exposed Recipients (mean age: 36; 54% female, eight in cohort 24b and 3 in 24c) in a hotel room with limited ventilation but a high air recirculation rate.
We collected exhaled breath, ambient and personal bioaerosols, fomite swabs, and sera, and analyzed samples using dPCR and fluorescent focus assays, hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Compared with previously studied community-acquired influenza cases, we detected viral RNA (44%) and culturable virus (6%) less frequently and measured fewer viral RNA copies (79 – 8.9 × 103 copies/30-min) in Donors’ exhaled fine aerosols. One of 23 surface swab samples was culture positive. At admission, 8 of 11 Recipients had HAI titers ≤10 but 9 of 11 had stronger binding antibody responses than Donors against vaccine strains corresponding to Donor viruses.
No Recipient developed influenza-like illness, PCR-positive respiratory samples, or serological evidence of infection.
Potential explanations and insights regarding lack of transmission include importance of cough and seasonal variation in viral aerosol shedding by Donors, of potential cross-reactive immunity in middle-aged Recipients with decades of exposure, and of exposure to concentrated exhaled breath plumes limited by rapid air mixing from environmental controls that distributed aerosols evenly. Future trials over multiple seasons, Donors that cough, younger recipients, and environments that preserve normal exhaled breath plumes will be required to observe transmission from naturally infected Donors under controlled conditions and generate new insights into influenza transmission dynamics."

Scientists Tried to Spread The Flu, Only to Discover Something Unexpected : ScienceAlert


Credits: The Flyover

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Ants are masters of disease prevention

Amazing stuff!

"... Researchers have found yet another way ants are masters of disease prevention: They restructure their nests to stop pathogens from spreading.

Ant hills look like a series of chambers connected by tunnels, where each chamber serves a purpose, for example storing food or housing the young. Since real ant hills are built underground and are hard to study, researchers placed about 200 worker ants in 10-centimeter jars to dig in the lab. Half the colonies were control groups, and half had ants exposed to an infectious pathogen. When the researchers imaged the ant hills’ structures using micro CT scans, they found that the disease-exposed colonies built entrances that were further apart, and that their chambers were less easily connected, providing fewer opportunities for a healthy ant to bump into an infected one.

The team then simulated how a pathogen would spread within the lab-built structures, finding that the disease-exposed colonies’ architecture reduced transmission. The effect strengthened when they simulated ants also implementing social distancing, a behavior the same team had previously discovered. ..."

From the editor's summary and abstract:
"Editor’s summary
Sociality is essential to many species, but it can come with the downside of increasing the transmission of disease. Many species have thus evolved strategies that limit disease transmission, even within highly social species. Leckie et al. tested whether the introduction of a pathogen through nest mate exposure altered patterns of nest construction in black garden ants. They found that the presence of individuals exposed to a pathogen led to architectural changes within the nest, such as an increase in the distance between entrances, and models showed that these changes reduced disease transmission. ...

Abstract
In animal groups, spatial structure shapes social interaction patterns, thereby influencing the transmission of infectious diseases. Active modifications to the spatial environment could therefore be a potent tool to mitigate epidemic risk. We tested whether Lasius niger ants modify their nest architecture in response to pathogens by introducing control- or pathogen-treated individuals into nest-digging groups and monitoring three-dimensional nest morphogenesis.
Pathogen exposure led to architectural changes, including faster nest growth, increased interentrance distance, transmission-inhibitory changes in nest network topology, and reduced chamber centrality.
Simulations confirmed that these changes reduced transmission and highlighted a synergy between architectural and behavioral responses to disease. These results provide evidence for architectural immunity in a social animal and offer insights into how spatial organization can be leveraged to decrease epidemic susceptibility."

ScienceAdviser




Figure 1. Experimental protocol and nest network extraction.


Figure 3. Pathogen-induced architectural modifications 6 days after treatment.


Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Indoor air monitor can detect COVID-19 virus variants and other pathogens in real time in about 5 minutes

Good news! Stop the next epidemy/pandemy right in its tracks!

"A team of researchers .... developed a proof-of-concept air quality monitor that can detect live SARS-CoV-2 virus in indoor environments. The monitor uses a biosensor made with nanobodies that is integrated into an air sampler that operates based on the wet cyclone technology ...
Most commercial bioaerosol samplers operate at relatively low flow rates ..., while the team’s monitor has a flow rate of about 1,000 liters per minute, making it one of the highest flow-rate devices available. It is also compact at about 1 foot wide and 10 inches tall and lights up when a virus is detected, alerting administrators to increase airflow or circulation in the room. ..."

From the abstract:
"Real-time surveillance of airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus is a technological gap that has eluded the scientific community since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Offline air sampling techniques for SARS-CoV-2 detection suffer from longer turnaround times and require skilled labor. Here, we present a proof-of-concept pathogen Air Quality (pAQ) monitor for real-time (5 min time resolution) direct detection of SARS-CoV-2 aerosols. The system synergistically integrates a high flow (~1000 lpm) wet cyclone air sampler and a nanobody-based ultrasensitive micro-immunoelectrode biosensor. The wet cyclone showed comparable or better virus sampling performance than commercially available samplers. Laboratory experiments demonstrate a device sensitivity of 77–83% and a limit of detection of 7-35 viral RNA copies/m3 of air. Our pAQ monitor is suited for point-of-need surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants in indoor environments and can be adapted for multiplexed detection of other respiratory pathogens of interest. Widespread adoption of such technology could assist public health officials with implementing rapid disease control measures."

Air monitor can detect COVID-19 virus variants in about 5 minutes - The Source - Washington University in St. Louis Proof-of-concept device could also monitor for flu, RSV, other respiratory viruses



Fig. 1: The layout of the pAQ monitor.


Thursday, July 06, 2023

Human testing for potential new TB treatment to tackle the ongoing TB epidemic in Africa. First in nearly six decades!

Good news! Bravo Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation!

"... using nanoparticles to activate the human immune system to destroy TB bacteria. This helps control the rising antibiotic-resistant strains of TB. ..."

"A new treatment for tuberculosis delivers a ‘kick and punch’ effect: nanoparticles ramp up the immune system and a drug molecule attacks the bacterium that causes illness. It has been nearly six decades since the last tuberculosis intervention came onto the market. ...
Two major funders — the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Wellcome — have invested US$550 million in a promising vaccine for tuberculosis. ... The bacterium can hide in the body for years before triggering an active infection that shows symptoms. The vaccine candidate, M72/AS01E, aims to tackle these latent infections. If successful, it would be the first new tuberculosis vaccine on the market in more than a century. ..."

"... Tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is one of the world’s biggest epidemics, claiming 1.6 million lives each year. The burden is particularly high in low- and middle-income countries. ..."

Human testing for potential new TB treatment, first in nearly six decades Activating patients’ own immune systems to end TB infection, without antibiotics

Promising tuberculosis vaccine gets US$550-million shot in the arm The candidate is moving to long-awaited phase III trials — if successful, it would be the first new jab against the disease in more than 100 years.

Saturday, May 13, 2023

The case for continuing municipal wastewater surveillance beyond COVID-19

Makes a whole lot of sense! You have to wonder why was such systematic monitoring of municipal wastewater not started many years earlier?

"... During the pandemic, hundreds of communities in the U.S. started monitoring their wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 to gauge the virus’s community spread. ...
the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS), which was spearheaded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the pandemic, in partnership with other federal agencies and states. ...
Biobot, a wastewater analysis company that manages roughly 30 percent of reporting sites across the country. As of last October, more than 1,250 testing sites in the U.S. contributed data to the NWSS. ..."

The case for continuing wastewater surveillance beyond COVID-19 Wastewater surveillance was a key tool in the fight against COVID-19. As pandemic control measures wane, does it have a future?

Saturday, December 10, 2022

The Invisible air fluidic Facemask. Almost a must have fashion accessory!

Bringing the face mask finally into the 21st century!

The issues regarding the effectiveness of conventional face masks are well known: "Wearing masks throughout the workday also results in a lack of focus, as well as reduced attention and patience in a wide range of professions. There is also a reduction in physiological oral communication, along with physiological effects such as headaches and skin problems.
As a result of these difficulties, many people wear masks incorrectly – on or below their mouths – which greatly reduces protection. Even in Japan, where face masks are common, a large study found that just 20% of people wear masks correctly."
Not to mention the enormous amount of waste created by disposable masks.

"... an invisible “air-screen” in front of the wearer’s face. The air-screen originates from within a lightweight filter-covered unit mounted on the visor of a cap. Several major advantages became clear: the air-screen protects the eyes, nose, and mouth without negative effects on facial identity, emotion recognition, or oral communication. The air screen is also reusable, so it does not pollute the environment. ...
Recently published research ... demonstrated the air-screen’s efficacy by effectively blocking aerosols produced during oral communication, as well as large droplets produced by coughing and sneezing. It also removes quiescent aerosol-laden air from in front of the face by a process known as “entrainment.” ..."

From the abstract:
"Recently, a fluidic facemask concept was proposed to mitigate the transmission of virus-laden aerosol and droplet infections, such as SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). This paper describes an experimental investigation of the first practical fluidic facemask prototype, or "Air-Screen". It employs a small, high-aspect-ratio, crossflow fan mounted on the visor of a filter-covered cap to produce a rectangular air jet, or screen, in front of the wearer's face. The entire assembly weighs less than 200 g. Qualitative flow visualization experiments using a mannequin clearly illustrated the Air-Screen's ability to effectively block airborne droplets (∼100 µm) from the wearer's face. Quantitative experiments to simulate droplets produced during sneezing or a wet cough (∼102 µm) were propelled (via a transmitter) at an average velocity of 50 m/s at 1 m from the mannequin or a target. The Air-Screen blocked 62% of all droplets with a diameter of less than 150 µm. With an Air-Screen active on the transmitter, 99% of all droplets were blocked. When both mannequin and transmitter Air-Screens were active, 99.8% of all droplets were blocked. A mathematical model, based on a weakly-advected jet in a crossflow, was employed to gain greater insight into the experimental results. This investigation highlighted the remarkable blocking effect of the Air-Screen and serves as a basis for a more detailed and comprehensive experimental evaluation."

The Invisible Facemask Technion researchers develop an air-screen that proves as effective as the traditional facemask in protecting the wearer from air-borne pathogens

Israeli researchers develop invisible face mask Researchers at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology have developed a revolutionary invisible face mask to protect wearers against the transmission of COVID, MERS, influenza and other viruses.



Graphical abstract



Thursday, October 13, 2022

Royal Society: How to outsmart a cereal killer

This could be an interesting event! Unfortunately, famine and starvation are still very real and with us!

The ongoing Russian war of aggression against one of the major bread baskets of the world Ukraine has been a strong reminder how important wheat is to provide food to people all over the world.

"Imagine a world without wheat… No bread, no cakes, no pasta and no beer. With wheat providing over 20% of the calories and protein consumed globally each day ... the world’s wheat supplies are being ravaged by a dangerous epidemic. Professor Diane Saunders will introduce you to the notorious “polio of agriculture”, the wheat rusts, that throughout history has endangered the production of one of our oldest and most precious food crops.
Despite long-standing efforts by a global community to wrestle the wheat rusts into submission, new strains are constantly evolving that can overcome the barriers we create to inhibit infection, and once again leave the world’s wheat crops vulnerable. Professor Saunders will discuss how phenomenal recent scientific advances have created the tools and resources in our arsenal that now have the real potential to finally outsmart these cereal killers and safeguard a sustainable food supply for generations to come."

How to outsmart a cereal killer | Royal Society

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Monkeypox: The next alarmism and hysteria escalation after Covid-19!

There are still only a few thousand cases reported worldwide!

The transmission of this disease is quite different and it is much less infectious than Covid-19! It seems to have even a sexual transmission (e.g. among male sexual partners) component, which is either downplayed or hushed (for possibly ideological reasons. Hint: HIV/AIDS), but may also indicate a slow transmission.

Nevertheless, on a daily basis news media, governments etc. are spreading propaganda about this disease! 

Is this the Brave New World we are living in now! One fabricated panic and hysteria is chasing the next! Hopefully not! A return to reason and common sense is urgently needed!