Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Milton Friedman At 100 Years

Wish You Were Here

Where is the Milton Friedman of our days? Please come forward!

Economic Lessons For Everyone

A few days ago, I had the pleasure to watch Milton Friedman on the Donahue show in 1979 on YouTube. Incredible, how Friedman explained economics in simple terms to everyday people on TV. It was fascinating to see how he passionately engaged with individuals of the audience. He certainly was not a man of the Ivory Tower like so many other economists.

We The People

He understood well that you need to try to convince the common people that free markets and individual liberty are in all our best interest for a better life.


A Very Readable Article

Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal wrote an excellent article on the occasion of Milton Friedman’s 100th birthday titled “The Man Who Saved Capitalism” which was published on 7/31/2012 on the Opinion page.

Lasting Large Government Bond Yield Spreads In The Euro Zone

Larger Spreads Are Good News


I think large spreads of government bond yields of southern Euro Zone countries like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal versus Germany will remain for the foreseeable future which is a good thing. Finally, the capital markets are working again as they should by more realistically pricing risk. Profligate politicians will be reminded that credit has a price.

The Mirage Of Tight EMU Spreads From 1999 To 2007

If my memory serves me well then those spreads narrowed dramatically with the introduction of the Euro in January of 1999 and stayed within a tight range of roughly 50 basis points in the following years until 2007. In hindsight, this was clearly unrealistic. Just because a monetary union came into being all the risk factors that had affected individual member countries for decades all of a sudden did not seem to matter anymore. Incredible.

Higher Spreads Less Indebtedness

For instance, had Greece to pay a more realistic, higher interest rates on the issue of new government bonds it probably would not have accumulated as much debt, because Greece would have been unable to pay its obligations.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

France And Germany Are Determined To Do Everything To Protect The Integrity Of The Euro Zone


Excerpt from a joint statement by the German chancellor and the French president released on 7/27/2012.

More Breaches Of European Agreements

Grandiose words indeed. Sounds heroic like fighting to the last bullet or to the last drop of blood! Does this include more breaches of European agreements and more violations of the no bailout clause? I think these European political leaders have already done enough damage.

Merkel Adieu

The good news is between September 1 and October 27, 2013 will be the next federal elections in Germany. Ms. Merkel has served as chancellor since 2005. Time for a new chancellor. Unfortunately, her presumptive challenger from the Social Democratic Party, Sigmar Gabriel, is another mediocre German politician.

A Simpler Monetary Policy Rule Than The Taylor Rule


A Brief Exposition Of The Taylor Rule

According to a 1993 paper by John B. Taylor, the Taylor Rule is defined as follows:


r is the federal funds rate
p is the rate of inflation over the previous four quarters
y is the percent deviation of real GDP from a target (trend real GDP)
2 is an assumed target rate of inflation

This rule is dominated by ambiguous concepts, i.e. target inflation rate and trend or potential growth of GDP, and by its focus on inflation. Another objective of this rule appears to be to smooth the business cycle and to make the business cycle more predictable. It is aimed at reducing discretionary monetary policies.

Professor Taylor also concludes his article in diminishing the value of his own rule by saying “This paper has endeavored to study the role of policy rules in a world where simple, algebraic formulations of such rules cannot and should not be mechanically followed by policymakers.” (Emphasis added) So what is it then a rule or a rubber band at the discretion of Fed chairmen like the irresponsible Ben Bernanke. If I were a cynic, I would say economists always leave a door open for them to come in as advisors for if there were simple hard rules what would be left for economists to do.

What Taylor seems not to have explicitly taken into account is the time value of money or the principle that money (cash or borrowed money) should never be cheap, because cheap money leads to overinvestment, higher government and private sector indebtedness and overspeculation.

Taylor also appears to be more concerned whether his rule fits historical macroeconomic data and therefore can be perceived to have explanatory power or so.

I am also not quite sure whether Taylor’s Rule always sets interest rate above the current inflation rate since he uses target inflation and trend GDP.

A Simpler Rule

Thus, a much simpler monetary policy rule would be to prohibit central banks to set their key short-term interest rates below inflation plus some factor (e.g. trend rate of GDP growth). This rule is easy to observe for the markets and for anyone.

Das Irrenschloss (Palace of Insane Patients)


A Bit Of Background

In 1845, Heinrich Hoffmann published a children’s book titled “Der Struwwelpeter” (Shaggy-Peter). A book illustrated by him portraying children misbehaving. Dr. Hoffman was a senior doctor of psychiatry at a mental hospital in my home town Frankfurt am Main, Germany. In his early years he was a doctor for paupers. This book became famous in Germany and many foreign translations followed.

His story of the Suppenkaspar may have been the first description of anorexia in literature.

A Modern Hospital For The Mentally Ill

What is lesser known is that Dr. Hoffman also founded a rather modern, advanced hospital for the mentally ill in Frankfurt. This hospital was financed by private donations. Construction started in 1859 and it was demolished in 1928. The architect chosen had a wife who suffered from a nervous disease. Alzheimer’s disease was later discovered at this hospital.

In colloquial language this hospital was fondly called “das Irrenschloss” (palace of insane patients).

The Significance Of This Story

This modern hospital was founded, financed, and maintained by private initiative. Extraordinary individuals came together to make it happen. Thus, long before big government usurped control of health care in the 20th century, many private citizens were trailblazing towards a better medical care for all. Stories like this cannot be told often enough.

War On


Watch Your Tongue

It is a sad sign of our modern times that a violent phrase of war on x has been coined so often in our public political discourse. Is this part of a strategy to desensitize humanity? War on Drugs. Culture Wars. War on Poverty. War on Women. War on Religious Liberty and so on.

Language Of Barbarism

To use such a barbaric word like war so loosely in our language is not a sign of civilization. What is e.g. a war on poverty or a war on drugs? Is it not a war affecting some of our children and neighbors?

Like Photography Displaced Naturalistic Or Realism Painting – Computational Music Is Going To Transform Music


Music At A Crossroads

I have little doubt that like computational photography is going to revolutionize conventional digital photography computational music is going to do the same for music. In my opinion, popular music (including classical, jazz, pop music etc.) has become kind of stale. Of course, we still like to listen to it, but I believe, we are about to enter a new era in music. I also have no doubt that somewhere on this planet unconventional musicians are already experimenting …

Too Excessive Copyrights Protecting Modern Music

As I see it, there is at least one major hindrance and that is excessive copyright rights which almost exclusively protect the music created over the last 100 years or so. Without these excessive copyrights contemporary or modern music could be more easily stored in computer systems and remixed or whatever to please current generations of listeners. New styles of music could be fused and much more.


Music X-Ray

In an article published on 7/27/2012 in the MIT Technology Review titled “Can Creativity be Automated?” by Christopher Steiner it reads that the music industry is beginning to rely on computer algorithms to select artists & repertoire for the next big hit. The company behind these algorithms: Music X-Ray.

Well, if such algorithms are capable to select music that suits our sweat spots could such algorithms not also compose music in such a way that it creates catchy tunes or songs?

Same article also mentions Professor David Cope of UC Santa Cruz who created algorithms that compose classical music.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

The New Deal All Over Again

Forgotten Lessons Of History

Those, who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. In times of crisis humans often resort to desparate, but foolish measures. Since the beginning of this millenium we are witnessing a repeat of the horrible New Deal. History does not repeat itself, but similar patterns do thanks to human nature. The ability of humans to learn from their mistakes is still very limited and very slow.

Political Power Excelled In Ignorance And Arrogance

We experienced two severe recessions within about a decade, the last one is called the Great Recession. Our elected political leadership turned out again to be quite inept and clueless about economics. Not only that, our political leadership became so arrogant and foolish as to attempt to subjugate free markets. This is sometimes referred to as primacy of politics. However, free markets are an expression of the free will of the people.

Awful Legislation, Bailouts, And Breaches

What our elected political leaders have come up with since the beginning of this millenium is a long list of awful deeds:
·         International contracts were severely breached (European Monetary Union)
·         Bailouts for so called too big too fail companies instead of bankruptcy and bailouts for profligate governments
·        Monstrous legislation like Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Dodd-Frank Act and Consumer Protection Act, or Obamacare was passed
·         And much more


Buyer Beware: When Leaders Of The Financial Industry Ask To Break Up Big Banks

What Happened?

Lately, at least two prominent leaders of the financial industry came out in public to ask that the biggest banks be broken up again to separate commercial from investment banking and one of them regretted to have scrapped the infamous New Deal era Glass-Steagall Act.

One of the leaders is Sandy Weill (Wall Street Journal article, subscription required), the long time CEO of City Bank, who made this bank into a megabank with brokerage and insurance. He also is dubbed the chief lobbyist behind the repeal of Glass-Steagall Act.

The other leader is Nikolaus von Bomhard (link to German language article in the Neue Zuericher Zeitung), the current CEO of Munich Re (the largest global reinsurer). That Mr. Bomhard may favor a breakup of big banks is no surprise. It is well known that insurance companies and banks in Germany have been in a fierce competition with each other for decades. The largest German insurance company, i.e. Allianz SE, was even said to have been more dominant in the German economy than the largest German bank, i.e. Deutsche Bank.

Besides these two men there were apparently a number of other distinguished individuals who concurred.

What Breakup?

Neither Mr. Sandy Weill nor Mr. Nikolaus von Bomhard explained how they would break up the big banks. Let me guess these two gentlemen were looking to big government to do this job.

Unfortunately, if my memory serves me correctly, the history of government antitrust measures in the US is not exactly successful. On the contrary, the history is rather dismal and a chain of failures.

Free Markets And Free Trade Is The Answer

It is foremost a severe government failure that banks got bigger and bigger and that the financial industry is one of the most regulated in the US.

Government, as usual, should get out of the way! Let banks go bankrupt. Open up the banking business to domestic and foreign competition of any kind. Remove barriers to entry. Minimize the cost of doing business and so on.


A particular responsibility rests also with all bank customers who should e.g. never trust all their money with one bank and who should also monitor what their chosen bank is doing with their money.

Friday, July 27, 2012

President Obama Is Sure To Lose Significant Jewish Votes

Obama Vs. Netanyahu

From what I have been reading this seems almost certain that the historically strong ties between Jewish voters and the Democratic Parties will suffer in November. A US President who is unable to communicate with the perhaps most pro-American Jewish Prime Minister since 1948 and who is so obviously as well as needlessly offending this ally must be out of his mind. This bizarre and unbecoming behavior of this President is similar to when he talked down on the Justices of the US Supreme Court during his State of Union address in the US Congress.

Romney In Israel

If Mitt Romney does an excellent job during his visit to Israel and Jerusalem, he will likely be rewarded for that. It is a smart move by Romney to travel to Israel in these times.

It is reported that there are than 600,000 Jews living in Florida alone with a total population of about 19 million.

The GOP And Jews

In an article (subscription required) by Rafael Medoff published on the Opinion page of the US Wall Street Journal on 7/26/12 one reads that the GOP became the first to officially endorse the Israeli state in the 1940s. The father of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reported as being involved in New York City in the 1940s to wean the Jews away from the Democrats towards the GOP.

Just as an aside: Were not the GOP also the first to abolish slavery? But African-Americans vote steadfastly Democratic for decades.

Germany: Massacre Of 11 Israeli At 1972 Olympic Games In Munich


Childhood Memories

I was about 11 years old when it happened. I remember well that I was in high school that day when the students were asked to interrupt their usual class and come to the large gym to view the live broadcast of the memorial service. This was a highly unusual deviation from a regular school day. From this day on I became a great admirer of Beethoven’s 9th Symphony, because it was played at the memorial service.

Some of the photographic pictures of this massacre and its Arab perpetrators are still vivid in my memory. Having lived within about 1000 yards of the World Trade Center in Jersey City, NJ on September 11, 2001, I have little doubt there is a connection between these two terrorist attacks and the rather coward response to repeated Arab/Muslim violence by Western countries over decades. The sheer fanaticism to cause such mayhem at the Olympic Games and the World Trade Center one aspect that links these two events.

Arab Fanaticism Against Peace

To target the Olympic Games, which have “The goal … to contribute to building a peaceful and better world by educating youth through sport practiced in accordance with Olympism and its values.” was an incredible, unprecedented perversion by Arab fanatics. To what extent the former Soviet Union and the KGB was behind this attack is not known to me.

Germany’s Incredible Incompetence For The Whole World To Witness

According to Wikipedia’s article on the event too many things went wrong:
·         German authorities were supposedly warned a few weeks ahead of time by a Arab informant that something was to happen at the Olympic Games (is this confirmed?)
·         Germany was totally unprepared, unprofessional, and too inflexible to deal with such a hostage situation by militants
·         Supposedly the Israeli government offered to send special forces, but Germany declined (this is not confirmed or is it?)
·         What happened during the shootout at Fuerstenfeldbruck airport can only be described as an operational disaster by German forces and leaders. E.g. five insufficiently trained men were selected as snipers; they were not given radio communications, one of the snipers was severely wounded by friendly fire, because police officers did not know about the snipers and much more.

Germany Handled The Arab Perpetrators Like Fools

The bodies of the five Palestinian assassins killed during the Fürstenfeldbruck gun battle were delivered to Libya, where they received heroes' funerals and were buried with full military honors. Why did Germany do this?

It gets worse: On 29 October 1972, hijackers of a West German Lufthansa passenger jet with 172 passengers on board demanded the release of the three surviving gunmen, who had been arrested after the Fürstenfeldbruck gunfight and were being held for trial. These three killers were immediately released by West Germany, receiving a tumultuous welcome when they touched down in Libya (see Wikipedia article). It is reported that the son of Robert Kennedy was on board of this hijacked plane.

Sunday, July 22, 2012

An Expanded Curriculum For High Schools


Privatize Public Schools

There are no convincing reasons why high schools need to be run by government. Why are secondary schools in the US organized as public schools? I suspect for some historical reasons. Wikipedia had this to say “In France and much of Europe from 1650 to 1790 educational aspirations were on the rise and were becoming increasingly institutionalized in order to supply the church and state with the functionaries to serve as their future administrators.” (Emphasis added).

Privatization would also automatically take care of labor unionization of teachers issues and how labor unions have been extorting ever so willing politicians to agree to unsustainable, sometimes outrageous contracts and work rules to benefit teachers at the expense of students and the general public.

I am not an expert on the history of secondary education in the Western world, but a little research suggests that some of the oldest Western high schools were founded and run by churches, e.g. Royal High School in Edinburgh, Scotland, which was founded in 1128 AD and it is still in operation.

The Imminent Transformation Of High School Education

The exponential advances in information technology have the power to completely transform how we teach our children in the future. Purely theoretically, one teacher, let’s say the best in one subject, can teach all children of the world via the Internet. A few educators can put together exercises, questions etc. for all children. This concept would completely change the role of a human teacher in a local school. Anyway, what will local schools look like in 10-20 years? Do we still have a class room and one teacher per class? Several states have already setup virtual schools. I believe Australia has a long history of long distance learning.

Here is a recent article by the Hoover Institution on the subject titled “The End of Teachers Unions” by Terry M. Moe published on 7/18/2012.

Economics

Since I am not very familiar with the high school curriculum in the US, I kind of have to speculate. From my own high school experience in Germany, I know I was sort of brainwashed with leftist ideas and prejudices against free market economies along the lines that capitalists are criminals, workers are exploited victims, and government is the good guy.

I also remember well that economics was taught as a tertiary subject with little emphasis. Now, I speculate that the situation is not much better in the US. From my observations it seems children learn more from their parents about how a free market economy works than in high school.

To teach free market economics well is as important as mathematics or science so the next generations will appreciate the benefits of free markets and limited government more than previous generations. Too many of our elected representatives in the US Congress or state legislatures have not much a clue about economics. President Obama is hostile to businesses and he is absolutely clueless or ignorant of how a free market economy actually works.

Law

If my memory serves me correctly, then I did not learn much about law in high school. Only when I entered college to study economics I was systematically taught in law. Everything else I know about this topic is self taught.

Understanding of law is fundamental in a society that is governed by the rule of law. One cannot start learning about law early enough. How many high school children learn the inscription on the east pediment of the US Supreme Court building, i.e. “Justice The Guardian Of Liberty”? This inscription was chosen by Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes in 1932. He was one of the great Justices who opposed the New Deal and prevented President Franklin D. Roosevelt from doing more damage. Unfortunately, the US Supreme Court’s document on the East Pediment does not contain much about the origin of the phrase “Justice The Guardian Of Liberty”. I wrote a separate blog about the inscription.

I would easily argue this inscription is the more important inscription than the more well known “Equal Justice Under Law” on the West façade or main entrance of the US Supreme Court.

If you look at some of the more recent decisions of the US Supreme Court, e.g. Kelo v. City of New London or ObamaCare, you doubt that even the supreme justices know the above mentioned inscription on the east façade of the building they work in.

If teenagers were already taught in law perhaps we had fewer bad decisions by the courts of justice.

Trading Assets

Too few teenagers ever learn how to trade assets like stocks, futures, forex etc. Those, who are so fortunate to learn how to trade in assets as teenagers happen to learn it most likely from their parents or from a close relative.

In a free market economy everybody should be able and comfortable to trade in assets. Capital markets are an essential part of free market economies about which every teenager should as much as possible.

Medicine

Why are children or teenagers not trained in basic medicine? High school students ought to know more about healthy life styles etc. Repeated first aid training would not hurt either. E.g. why is it an important to get two opinions from different doctors even of different disciplines in important medical situations? Trust your doctor, but verify. Where do you find reliable medical information?

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Justice The Guardian Of Liberty


Inscription Of The US Supreme Court Building

This is the inscription on the East Pediment or rear façade of the US Supreme Court building. I believe it is much less known than the one on the west façade or main entrance to the US Supreme Court building. Although, I would argue it is the more important one and future nominees to the US Supreme Court should be seriously challenged on this one during their confirmation hearings.

Eerily Silence On The US Supreme Court Website

There is a two page PDF file on the US Supreme Court website that describes some details about this inscription, but not much is said about its origin other than that then Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes coined it in 1932. Same is true for the court building page. The search function on the court’s website does not help much.

When you try to Google or Bing this inscription you come up basically empty handed as to the origin.

The Dual Meaning Of Justice

From an article published in the ABA Journal (735), I got that idea, i.e. “Justice the Guardian of Liberty: John Marshall at the Trial of Aaron Burr” by Harold Burton published in 1951.

Thus justice as it is inscribed has two meanings it is the abstract concept of justice, but also each justice on the court is supposed to be a guardian of individual liberty.

Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes

Here are some quotes from Chief Justice Evans Hughes from the Wikiquote website that may shed some light how this inscription can be interpreted (Emphasis added):
·         “… the judiciary is the safeguard of our liberty and of our property under the Constitution.”
·         “While democracy must have its organizations and controls, its vital breath is individual liberty

Thus, Chief Justice Evans Hughes recognized that liberty is the high goal of justice and justice serves liberty.

Great Recession Caused By Reckless Extreme Low Interest Rate Policy Pursued By Western Central Banks


A Little Acknowledged Failure Of Western Central Banks

Sure it was not the only cause of the Great Recession, but a major one. To this day it has been little acknowledged by neither western central bankers nor western economists. On the contrary this reckless, extreme low interest rate policy still continues. This is another prominent example of colossal government failure.

Western Central Banks Learned Nothing From Japan

Twice within a decade the Fed followed by other Western central banks have lowered and kept short term interest rates at ridiculous low level for way too long. As if our Western central bankers did not learn the lessons from Japan. Western central bankers were obsessed with using low short term interest rates to stimulate economic growth and they defended their reckless policy arguing they were trying to avoid imaginary deflation and inflation was not a concern.

In addition, the Fed and other western central banks in the wake of the Great Recession also massively inflated their balance sheets and purchased government bonds.

Western Central Bankers Ignorant Of The Price Of Money

Hundreds of highly trained and well compensated economists work on the staff of Western central banks. However, it seems that the whole profession of Western economists ignored that the interest rate is foremost the price of money. Thus, Western central banks used their price control power to artificially and extremely lower this crucial economic price.

More surprisingly, it did not even bother Western central banks or economists that real interest rates turned negative making money incredibly cheap.

A Blunder Of Enormous Proportions

Any halfway knowledgeable economist knows that when you manipulate a crucial economic price against common sense negative consequences will follow. And they did.

Thus, Western central banks are to a considerable extent responsible for fueling the exuberant speculation on the housing markets, commodity markets, derivative financial instruments etc. in the Western countries; for the irresponsible, massive and cheap debt financing by politicians at every level in Western countries; and for making savings in money markets and government bonds unattractive. Investors in life insurance, pension funds etc. have been suffering.

Now Western Central Banks Are In A Self-Made Trap

In the wake of the Great Recession, Western central banks again resorted to keeping short term interest rates extremely low. Thereby, they ignored the long known Liquidity Trap.

Even worse, Western central bankers cannot raise interest rates at all or not very fast without jeopardizing the dire situation of Western government deficits and debt, because of the immediate impact on net interest payments of government budgets.

Western Monetary Policy Is In Urgent Need Of Reform

In light of the Great Recession and the colossal failure of Western central banks a major debate followed by reform is inevitable. The earlier, the better.

A Simple Monetary Rule For Central Bank Controlled Interest Rates

One solution that comes immediately to mind is that central banks should not be allowed to lower interest rates below the economic growth plus inflation rate.

Privatization Of Money

A return to a gold standard or commodity currency is most likely a nostalgic wish. Privatization of money, on the other hand, should be given serious consideration. There is a reason why in particular western governments still hold on to their monopoly of money or their power to create money.

Driverless Cars Are The Future


When Will I Get To Drive One?

I cannot wait to buy one. Finally, I can relax, while getting from A to B. This is the future of individual mobility. Valet parking attendants are passé. Automated, self-park, efficient, and compact parking garages will be everywhere. And so much more …

Infrastructure For The 21st Century And Beyond

This project would beat historical transportation projects like the Erie Canal and Eisenhower’s Interstate Highway System by a wide margin. If President Obama was not wearing ideological blinders and if he was less dim witted he would be on this a long time ago.

Benefits: Much less traffic congestion, far fewer vehicular accidents and much more.

The End Of Conventional Public Transportation

Who needs all these trains, buses or very expensive high speed trains anymore? Why would government have to provide for that?

The federal, state, and local governments should pave the way for driverless cars instead of wasting tens of billions of dollars on pet projects like high speed trains or inner city light railways etc. I you want to read more about it I recommend “Paving the Way for Driverless Cars” (subscription required) by Clifford Winston published on the Opinion page of the US Edition of The Wall Street Journal on 7/18/2012.

Nevada Is Not Only For Gambling And Entertainment

Nevada is also one of the first states to pass a law concerning the operation of a driverless car in June 2011 also thanks to Google. “The Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles issued the first license for a self-driven car in May 2012. The license was issued to a Toyota Prius modified with Google's experimental driver-less technology.” (According to Wikipedia).

Like the “Fight of the Century” between the first black heavy weight boxing champion Jack Johnson and Jim Jeffries in 1910 that took place in Reno, Nevada, because the original venue, i.e. San Francisco, CA, had to cancel this fight since the governor of California would not allow it, it is Nevada again being a trailblazer.

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Wells Fargo Bank: Too Big Too Fail And Too Big To Fight?


Quid Pro Quo?


Big financial institutions will receive big government bailouts if they do not resist big government’s attempts to punish them?

Incredibly Spineless

Why Wells Fargo or other banks do not fight back when very controversial disparate impact analysis, which originated in discriminatory employment practices, is applied to mortgage lending practices.

Wells Fargo is willing to pay $175 million in fines and compensation to allegedly discriminated borrowers instead of telling this zealous Attorney General for the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, Thomas Perez, to take his extortion act somewhere else. Given that the November 2012 election may change the whole picture it was incumbent on Wells Fargo to fight back. With $175 million you can pay 175,000 billing hours of attorney’s charging $1000 per hour. That is no brainer to me: Bring it on Mr. Perez.

Further, according to the settlement Wells Fargo is on the hook for more payments as it says “Compensation paid to any retail borrowers identified in the review process will be in addition to the $125 million to compensate wholesale borrowers who were victims of discrimination.” (Emphasis added).

Stain Of Unfair Lending

Now Wells Fargo sort of confirmed with this coward act that big banks conspired against borrowers and that big banks are responsible for the financial crisis of 2008. By accepting this frivulous settlement Wells Fargo appears to be hiding something.

The CEO of Wells Fargo should immediately resign if he has any respect.

Wells Fargo Failed To Break This Vicious Catch 22 Cycle

If big banks do not lend to risky borrows they are threatened by the Justic Department and if they charge risk premiums they are threatened as well. The only winner here: Big Government!

What Is Wrong With The CEO’s Of Big US Banks?

Was it not enough that Treasury Secretary Henry Hank Paulson gathered the CEO’s of nine of the nations largest banks in one room in October 2008 and strong armed them into into ceding $250 billion worth of equity in their enterprises to the U.S. government. Any decent CEO would have walked out of this meeting.

When Liberal Pundits Write Opinion Pieces In The Wall Street Journal



This was the title of a piece written by James Carville and Stanley B. Greenberg published on the Opinion page of the US edition of the Wall Street Journal on 7/13/2012 (subscription required).

Besides that this article was largely laughable, to claim that the middle class needs a lifeline by big government is misguided. In an age of exponential technological revolution and rapidly expanding global economic interdependence to use such outmoded, communist style classifications like middle class is preposterous and cheap populism. A “lifeline” conjures a picture of victimization and paternalism.

Full Of Praise For Bill Clinton

As if Bill Clinton was another Ronald Reagan, these authors were full of praise for someone who had sex with a young subordinate female in his office. No less than three times are the supposed ‘achievements’ of Bill Clinton emphasized. I am actually not surprised that a man like James Carville was a campaign manager for Bill Clinton.

Without Ronald Reagan’s reforms and without the Republican takeover of the US Congress, Bill Clinton would have little to brag about. So do Messrs Carville & Greenberg.

More Big Government Spending & Taxes

Some excerpts from their article:
·         “… The actual solution to our economic situation is straightforward: increased government spending well in excess of what the 2009 Recovery Act contemplated …”
·         “… For the record, … voters want to raise taxes on top earners, senior corporate executives and companies that outsource jobs. …

Are these pundits (Hindi for learned man) or just morons?

Gratitude To The Wall Street Journal

That one of the best news papers in the US, if not worldwide, allows these liberals to make fools of themselves is greatly appreciated and secures my subscription.

What’s Really Not Behind The Entitlement Crisis


What Is This About?

On the Opinion page of the US Edition of The Wall Street Journal was an article published on 7/15/12 headlined “What’s Really Behind theEntitlement Crisis” (subscription required) by Ben J. Wattenberg with the American Enterprise Institute.

All Alarm Bells Started Ringing

“Entitlement Crisis” made me curious. However, if someone claims to tell you “What’s Really Behind” something then my alarm bells start ringing immediately. What is the author selling, e.g., snake oil, cheap analysis etc.?

Abstract Of Article

Wattenberg bases his explanation on demography. “[The] heart of the problem are birth rates … total fertility rates … that have fallen sharply all over the world”. Thus, “there will be relatively few working age people to underwrite the benefits of the many seniors who have paid into national retirement systems such as Social Security and Medicare”. Nothing new here. This has been well known for decades.

However, then the author discusses so called “pro-natal” (According to Wikipedia also known as Natalism or a belief that promotes human reproduction) programs that were in particular employed in Western Europe to increase total fertility rates. Wikipedia again: “It [pro-natal] typically advocates policies such as limiting access to abortion and contraception, as well as creating financial and social incentives for the population to reproduce.”. He admits that the actual effects of such programs are hard to quantify.

Further, the author argues that “[i]n theory, pro-natal programs are the best bet”. As he hopes it would perhaps be “reflating fertility”.

Another Look At The Entitlement Crisis

First, I think, the author is quite wrong to believe that promoting the total fertility rate to go up again is a solution. The worldwide, decades long trend for TFR is downward towards 2 or below for good and well understood reasons. Thus, pro-natal policies are an exercise in futility. These demographic trends probably have to be accepted. In the following decades, the human approach to procreation may dramatically change anyway thanks to advances in medicine and genetics etc.

Second, the author implicitly presumes that big government pay as you go entitlement programs like Social Security are a given and are desirable. He is wrong on this too. It is high time to get big government out of the way to provide one size fits all retirement benefits for the whole population. Pay as you go national retirement systems are akin to Ponzi schemes. Such systems are but huge power grabs by big government. In recognizing this lies a much better solution to the entitlement crisis: individual self reliance in form of personal retirement savings. The earlier we get young people to accept this form of responsibility, the better. Once implemented, total fertility rates become much less relevant.

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Confiscatory Taxation: Spain Raises Value Added Tax To 21% By September 2012

It’s Madness

Given the dire economic conditions, it’s insane to raise the value added tax from 18% to 21%. That is a 17% increase. Only two years ago, in July 2010, the previous, socialist government raised it from 16% to 18%.

Spain’s government justifies such an increase with the absurd argument that they are only bringing their VAT tax rate in line with the rest of the European Union. Yes, it is true the VAT tax rate in Germany is 19%, in France it is 19.6%, and in Italy it’s 21%. However, this is typical big government absurdity, when my neighbor raises taxes then me too. By this twisted logic we soon would see VAT tax rates in the 30-40% range. If businesses in the EU would do this kind of price fixing, they would be suit.

Confiscatory Taxation And The Laffer Curve

The top personal income rate is 43% in Spain, the corporate tax rate is 30%. Thus, besides high VAT taxes, Spain is a high tax country.

To use an exaggerated and oversimplified example, the average Spaniard employee pays about 30% in income taxes and soon 21% taxes on everything he or she buys. That is a combined taxation of over 50% of hard earned money. This example does not even include payroll taxes etc.

Any taxation that reaches or exceeds 50% of one’s income is legalized confiscation or theft by big government. Laffer curve analysis strongly suggests that revenue will rather decline in such a high tax environment. Citizens are no fools.

Revealing Exemptions To VAT

I do not know all the details, but the tourism sector enjoys an exemption from VAT in form of a considerably reduced VAT rate of currently 8%, which the new, conservative government now intends to raise to 10%.

Why are there such exemptions like tourism and also for basic foodstuff (VAT rate of 4% in Spain)? One easy answer is that big government knows exactly that tax rates as high as 20% are confiscatory and abhorred by the people, not to mention bad for business. Or is it just a clever move by big government to prevent riots in the street?

A Warning For The USA

In the US, we find a lively discussion of introducing some kind of consumption tax. Even conservative think tanks like the Goldwater Institute here in Arizona are in on this misguided policy advice.

To put it very simply, a domestic consumption tax cannot be implemented without abolishing the personal income tax first. Otherwise, our greedy big government politicians see $$$ signs and revenue.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Orwellian ISO 26000 Guidance On Social Responsibility


To Standardize Social Responsibility Worldwide?

Since when is the International Standards Organization into such politically loaded standardization? This has decidedly an Orwellian taste. What kind of brainwashing is this? What are they trying to dictate?

Here is an excerpt from the official Abstract of this ISO 26000 standard released in November 2010 (emphasis added):
“ISO 26000:2010 provides guidance to all types of organizations, regardless of their size or location, on:
 • concepts, terms and definitions related to social responsibility;
 • the background, trends and characteristics of social responsibility;
 • principles and practices relating to social responsibility;
 • the core subjects and issues of social responsibility;
 • integrating, implementing and promoting socially responsible behaviour throughout the organization and, through its policies and practices, within its sphere of influence;”

To read this ISO 26000 standard you have to pay CHF 196.00 (Swiss francs).

Social Responsibility Equals Sustainable Development?

What are they smoking at the ISO?

According to the Abstract of this ISO 26000 standard it “… is intended to assist organizations in contributing to sustainable development. It is intended to encourage them to go beyond legal compliance, recognizing that compliance with law is a fundamental duty of any organization and an essential part of their social responsibility.” (emphasis added).

To stress the harmlessness of this ISO 26000 standard, the Abstract goes on to say “ISO 26000:2010 is not a management system standard. It is not intended or appropriate for certification purposes or regulatory or contractual use.” So what is this standard all about?

I have in a separate blog written a scathing critique of this “Flawed Ideology Of Sustainable Development”.

Further Reading

I have to give credit to Jon Entine who in a well-written article dated 7/11/2012 for the AEI (American Enterprise Institute) alerted me to this Orwellian ISO 26000 standard. The article is titled “ISO 26000: Sustainability as standard?

Some excerpts from his article (emphasis added):
·         “… Various aspects are providing blueprints for left-leaning European countries, empowering advocacy groups and inspiring activist judicial systems to embrace these “universally agreed upon” principles when conflicts involving corporations come to a head. …”
·         “… The United States and India, which supported early drafts of ISO 26000, ultimately voted, along with three other countries, against the final version. Critics believe it contains problematic proclamations about contested notions of environmental impacts and employee and consumer rights, but no endorsement of shareholder rights. …”
·         “… Much of the concern revolves around ISO 26000’s embrace of the “precautionary principle” to resolve environmental conflicts. Although that conforms to EU practices, it’s rejected by the US, Japan and other countries, …”
·         “…Many industry leaders, particularly in the US, believe these kind of standards encourage protectionism ahead of innovation, ..”

One is not surprised to learn that the so called precautionary principle was a bone of contention. Further, it is no surprise to find this principle jointly with social responsibility and sustainable development.

In a separate blog I have critiqued the precautionary principle in “The Precautionary Principle” as a modern superstition and a handy tool for ever power hungry politicians.

Post Mortem Economists At The Federal Reserve Board

The Fed Employs Hundreds Of Economists

The Fed has three research Divisions employing about 450 staff members of which about half are PhD economists. What were all these economists doing while the latest financial bubble evolved and expanded and the Fed kept key short term interest rates at recklessly low levels for too long? Was this a case of analysis paralysis by too many economists? J

In my opinion, so many highly paid economists are a waste of tax payer’s money! I suspect a serious case of overstaffing at tax payers’ expense.

Brilliant Post Mortem Analysis Of Financial Crisis By Fed Economist

The AEA (American Enterprise Institute) just published a brief review titled “Beware of predatory lenders? No, fear predatory borrowers” (by Economist Sita Nataraj Slavov) of a research paper co-written by one of the Fed’s senior financial economists titled “Complex Mortgages”(53 pages long). His name Gene Amromin. This senior economist has been working for the Fed since 2005 according to his bio on the Chicago Fed’s website. Interestingly, this senior economist is not listed among the 450 staff members mentioned above on the Fed’s website, leading me to believe that perhaps the regional Fed’s have their own staff of economists.

One notices already the differences in how these two economists label their papers. The Fed economist is hiding something, because this paper is very insightful which the review brings out clearly.

Here is a large excerpt from the abstract of the research paper (it speaks of itself, emphasis added):
“We find that complex mortgages are used by households with high income levels and prime credit scores, in contrast to the low income population targeted by sub-prime mortgages. Complex mortgage borrowers have significantly higher delinquency rates than traditional mortgage borrowers even after controlling for leverage, payment resets, and other household and loan characteristics. Our analysis of dynamic default patterns, bankruptcy filings, and household characteristics suggests that complex mortgage contracts attract sophisticated borrowers who are more strategic in their default decisions.

This is a very nice post mortem analysis. Same Fed economist wrote at least one other paper in October 2010 also dealing with some specific post mortem analysis.

In another post mortem paper titled “Predatory Lending and the Subprime Crisis” published on 3/16/2012 same Fed senior economist writes in its abstract that “Our results suggest that predatory lending may have not been instrumental in precipitating the financial crisis as often believed.”.

Clueless Fed Economists

I apologize to pick on Senior Financial Economist Gene Amromin with the Chicago Fed. However, one can look at his list of publications by title only and you find none that would perhaps criticize the recklessly low interest policy of the Fed in the first decade of the 21st century. None of his paper dealt with the absurd lending standards that were allowed to go on in this decade leading up to the severe financial crisis of 2008 and so on.

I suspect he is not the only senior economist at the Fed who missed the signs.

Ben Bernanke maybe the most clueless of them all.

Maybe one day someone else will study in more detail what these hundreds of Fed economists have written prior or during the severe financial crisis of 2008.

The Mind Reader Applied To Suspected Iranian Agents Crossing The Mexican Border


Human Thoughts Are Private

Or as we used to say in German “ich bin doch kein Gedankenleser” (I am not a thought reader) meaning I don’t know what you were thinking.

At The Cusp Of Reading A Human Mind?

IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) just published an article titled “The Mind-Reading Machine” by Celia Gorman in IEEE Spectrum (July 2012). This article summarizes some of the latest advances of machines capable to read specific brain activity associated with, e.g. someone recognizing a person on a picture.

This is just another recent article I have read about advances in mind reading capabilities.

Iranian Agents Entering The US

From this article one also learns that the US Defense Department is already applying mind reading machines in the field. “According to Elbot (CEO of Veritas Scientific), the U.S. military used an earlier Veritas device called BrainTruth to test the thoughts of suspected Iranian agents crossing the Mexican border into the United States.”

I was stunned for a moment to read in this rather technical/scientific magazine that Iranian agents may already be entering the US. I was not yet aware of any actual cases. What are these agents up to?

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Libya Ought To Redress The Jews For The Atrocities They Suffered


A Bit Of Recent History

As happened in other Arab countries, a large number of Jews were murdered or forced to leave Libya in the 20th century. These pogroms were officially condoned. These pogroms happened at the end of World War II, 1948, and around 1967.

Here is the personal account of such atrocities committed against Jews in Libya. It is a blog written by David Harris at the HuffingtonPost.com headlined “A Neglected Anniversary” dated 7/8/2012.

Here are some excerpts from this blog (Emphasis added):
·         “Here [in Libya] was a community that had lived on the soil for more than two millennia, long predating the occupation by invading armies from the Arabian Peninsula. And Jews, numbering nearly 50,000 at their peak, had contributed in every way imaginable to the area’s development. Libya went to work to erase every trace of Jewish existence.”
·         “The link with the country today known as Libya - believed to date back to the tragic 15th-century exodus of Jews from Spain, in the case of my wife's maternal lineage, and 2,000 years to the involuntary Roman transport of Jews from Palestine in the case of her paternal lineage -- was severed.”
·         “What happened to the brave soul who saved my wife's family? He survived, but begged the family never to disclose his name. He feared retribution from fellow Libyans who might do him harm for the "crime" of saving ten Jews.” (Will Israel one day add the name of this brave Arab to Yad Vashem as a Righteous Among The Nations?)

Libya never showed any remorse for what happened neither did the other Arab countries to my knowledge.

How To Redress?

Now that the first free elections since independence were held in Libya, it would be recommendable that Libya engages in the Mid-East peace process by first telling the Arabs in Gaza and West Bank to get real and to abandon violence against Israel.

Second, like Germany, Libya should compensate Jewish survivors for their suffering.

Third, Libya ought to welcome back any Jews who wish to return etc.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Time For A New Era Of Enlightenment


Past Great Minds

Just a few names:
Friedrich Hayek died 1992.
Ludwig von Mises died 1973.
Alexis de Tocqueville died in 1859.
James Madison died 1836.
Thomas Jefferson died 1826.
Benjamin Franklin and Adam Smith died 1790.

Where are the new great minds?

Recent Lessons Of History Forgotten

Ronald Reagan said it best: “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction”. How true!

World War II or the victory of freedom over totalitarian regimes. Those who witnessed it have either died or are very old by now. However totalitarian regimes are still around.

There are fewer totalitarian regimes than compared with a few decades ago, but Big Government is on the march and ever expanding in many developed countries.

Ominous Omens Of Our Times

We have entered an era of ignorance, arrogance and delusion of government power:
·         European politicians breach major European contracts with impunity, the courts look the other way.
·         US and European politicians and bureaucrats bail out so called too big to fail financial companies instead of allowing bankruptcy to take its course.
·         Major central banks lowered twice in a decade key short term interest rates to recklessly low levels for too long fueling speculation and indebtedness.
·         Irresponsible politicians in the US and Europe have run up government debt to incredible peace time levels.
·         In the 21st century, a US President in collaboration with a democratic majority in the US Congress tries to outdo the horrible New Deal of Franklin Delano Roosevelt by, e.g., further nationalizing the health care system of the USA.

Saturday, July 07, 2012

Ludwig Von Mises: A Definition Of Free Markets

Free Consumers Are In Power

Excerpted from chapter 14 of von Mises's book “Money, Method, and the Market Process” (Emphasis added):
“Permit me to recapitulate some well-known facts.
While under precapitalistic conditions superior men were the masters on whom the masses of the inferior had to attend,
under capitalism the more gifted and more able have no means to profit from their superiority other than to serve to the best of their abilities the wishes of the majority of the less gifted.
In the market economic power is vested in the consumers. They ultimately determine, by their buying or abstention from buying, what should be produced, by whom and how, of what quality and in what quantity.
The entrepreneurs, capitalists, and landowners who fail to satisfy in the best possible and cheapest way the most urgent of the not yet satisfied wishes of the consumers are forced to go out of business and forfeit their preferred position.”

Some Remarks

The more gifted and more able in economic affairs, I would qualify. Entrepreneurs are also consumers. It is not a one way street. Vice verse consumers in a free market can become entrepreneurs at any time.

Big Government Hurts Consumers

An example out of millions of existing examples: This Summer 2012, the EU Commission forces wireless carries in the European Union to charge low and fixed uniform roaming fees to their customers. Supposedly, European consumers paid too much calling home when they were on vacation somewhere within the EU.

According to von Mises, free and responsible consumers should have abstained from buying those calls thereby forcing wireless carriers to reconsider their pricing. The EU Commission should have better thought about ways to intensify competition to drive down prices. Such government price controls only undermine the workings of free markets, stifle competition and innovation and much more. Such measures are myopic, too expedient, populist, and very dumb. Consumers are reduced to recipients of big government’s handouts.