Researcher proposes a way to detect nuclear weapons in space

Good news! However, this proposed detection system seems to be very slow and works only in close proximity of a satellite containing a nuclear weapon.

"In 2024, a U.S. government official warned that Russia could be developing a new satellite designed to carry nuclear weapons into space. The statement followed the launch of a suspicious Russian satellite into low-Earth orbit in 2022, just a few weeks before the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

A nuclear detonation in low-Earth orbit — the region about 100 miles to 1,200 miles above Earth’s surface — would release trillions of highly energetic electrons that would destroy many of the satellites in space, disrupting telecommunications networks, GPS, space-based internet, and more.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty bans the placement of nuclear weapons in space, but there’s currently no way to verify satellites don’t contain nuclear weapons. In fact, no verification methods have even been proposed in unclassified, peer-reviewed literature. ...

In the paper, Danagoulian calculates that a sensor system the size of a large encyclopedia could detect a nuclear weapon with 99 percent accuracy if it orbited within 4,000 meters of the suspect satellite for about a week. He also estimates that the detection time could be cut to a matter of hours if multiple satellite sensors were used or the sensor satellite was able to get within 1,000 meters of the suspect satellite. ..."

From the abstract:

"The Outer Space Treaty (OST) was opened to signatures in 1967 and, since then, 117 countries, including China, the USA and Russia, have become part of it. Among other stipulations, the treaty bans the placement of nuclear weapons in outer space.

Recently, the US government has raised worries that Russia is testing nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) components, with the possibility that it will place a nuclear weapon in space.

Such a device, if detonated, would destroy most of the satellites in the low Earth orbit. This danger is compounded by the lack of a verification mechanism for the OST.

No methodologies of verification have been proposed in the open peer-reviewed literature.

Here a concept and feasibility study is presented for verifying a satellite’s compliance to the OST by observing the neutrons induced by spallation from the approximately GeV protons in the inner Van Allen radiation belts.

The calculations show that a 9U-CubeSat-sized detection platform can identify a thermonuclear weapon from a distance of 4 km in approximately one week of observation. This conceptual study will stimulate and inform future research and development of verification platforms for the OST."

MIT researcher proposes a way to detect nuclear weapons in space | MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology "The 1967 Outer Space Treaty bans nuclear weapons in space, but there’s currently no way to verify that satellites aren’t carrying them."

Detection schemes could deter putting nuclear warheads in space

Verification of the Outer Space Treaty with cosmic protons (no public access)

Verification of the Outer Space Treaty with Cosmic Protons (preprint, open access)

What Would Multilateral "AI Arms Control" Look Like?

Very good question and which parties would be involved? Food for thought!

However, it appears the author of the following article meant something very different than the analogy to nuclear weapons agreements of the past century!

"... In fact, model quality is growing harder to compare as the industry questions the efficacy of standard benchmarks such as mathematical problem completion. These benchmarks can be gamed if the model is trained on the specific problems in advance. What’s more, as OpenAI researcher Noam Brown recently noted, the right definition of capability is not only what problems a model can solve but how quickly and at what cost. ..."

What Would Multilateral "AI Arms Control" Look Like? | American Enterprise Institute - AEI

What would multilateral ‘AI arms control’ look like? (behind paywall)

Can Scientists revive Nuclear Arms Control

Food for thought! Probably, other nuclear weapons countries like China, India, Pakistan need to be included.

"February 2026 saw the end of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as New START, the last nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia,” ... What does this mean for the future of nuclear arms control? ... that this moment calls for “scientists from all three nuclear powers [China, Russia, and the US] to collaborate on a solution.” ... how, in the 1950s, atomic physicists from the US and USSR “stepped forward to lay the groundwork for eventual nuclear agreements in the 1960s and 1970s.” Encouraging a replay of this history, ... today’s nuclear scientists can help the major nuclear powers find a compromise on “the key issue of what level of activity is permitted under the nuclear testing moratorium.”" (Source)

President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev Sign the INF Treaty | December 8, 1987

Very recommendable! Will the successor of Putin the Terrible be more like Gorbachev? Hope and pray!

Enjoy the humor of President Reagan who for this occasion e.g. learnt by heart some Russian proverbs (trust but verify)! 😊

Understanding the Global Debate on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems: An Indian Perspective

India, the country famous for non-violent civil disobedience, is getting into this subject! Of love, laws, and LAWS!

Are international agreements about LAWS progressing to slowly given the actual development and active use of such weapons?

"... India is a High Contracting Party to the CCW and has actively participated in the global discourse on LAWS at the GGE. As the chair of the GGE in 2017, India played an instrumental role in leading the group toward affirming the eleven guiding principles on the use and development of LAWS. This was despite the hold-up in defining these systems and reaching a consensus on their technical aspects.

In recent years, the GGE has faced criticism for its slow progress in establishing a binding norm to regulate LAWS—a shortcoming often attributed to its consensus-driven process where a single member’s dissent is enough to reject a proposal. ...

Owing to the slow pace of discussions at the GGE, concerns have also been raised regarding the rapidly narrowing window to establish an effective regulatory framework for such weapons. ...

India was one of the five countries that voted against the December 2023 UNGA resolution on LAWS. At various sessions of the GGE and the UNGA, India maintained that the GGE was the appropriate forum to discuss LAWS. It posited that the GGE’s existing body of work must be expanded upon to build a common understanding of LAWS and expressed concerns that simultaneous processes may lead to a duplication of efforts or parallel sets of rules. ...

India believes that the discussions on LAWS should not contribute to the fragmentation of the normative sphere but rather should focus on finding common ground, taking into account the views and concerns of all. While it has expressed interest in developing legally binding instruments in arms control and disarmament as a matter of principle, India notes that much work needs to be done before meaningful negotiations can begin for a legally binding instrument on LAWS. ...

Developing autonomous weapons systems is a crucial military priority for India. Its defense industry already has some autonomous weapon systems, like the Counter Measure Dispensing Systems and the Adaptive Intelligent Front Towing Solution for Artillery Gun. Autonomous weapons systems can be useful for India along its borders, characterized by rough terrains and remote locations, for surveillance and reconnaissance and to avert cross-border terrorism. LAWS can continue to operate autonomously in information-denied environments, where operators could be subject to attacks by adversaries. In the Indian Ocean region, autonomous systems have proven particularly useful in anti-piracy operations, securing trade routes, and consolidating India’s place as a net security provider in the region. For example, India recently deployed an uncrewed MQ-9B SeaGuardian to assess and respond to a hijacked vessel in the Arabian Sea. ..."

Understanding the Global Debate on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems: An Indian Perspective - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace "This article explores the global debate on lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS), highlighting the convergences, complexities, and differences within and beyond the UN Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on LAWS. It further examines India’s key position at the GGE and the probable reasons behind them."

U.S. Is Ready to Begin Nuclear-Arms Dialogue With Russia. Really!

Oh shock! With the senile and demented 46th President in charge????
God help us!

Putin the Terrible also seems to suffer from senility lately and megalomania!

"The last remaining major nuclear-arms-control treaty between the two countries expires in 2026. At that point, the size of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal and the pace of China’s nuclear buildup would influence the limits on Washington's nuclear forces that the administration might accept, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. In February, Russia said that it was suspending its participation in the treaty, called New Start, prompting the Biden administration to say it would no longer exchange key data on its strategic forces. Despite that, Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said that Moscow plans to observe the limits on strategic warheads for the duration of the accord. The prospects for future arms control after that point is highly uncertain."

U.S. Is Ready to Begin Nuclear-Arms Dialogue With Russia - WSJ Washington seeks to sketch out arms-control path after New Start treaty expires in 2026

The 46th President's latest fall

Dangerous Complacency Towards Chemical Weapons

Posted: 4/15/2018

I observe a dangerous naivete or complacency by many contemporaries about the use of chemical weapons in our time. We further observe that the leaders of Russia, China, Iran, and still NATO member Turkey are obstructing or even aiding and abetting the dictator of Syria.

No civilized society can tolerate the use of chemical or biological or nuclear weapons against civilians. In Syria, we have now witnessed several large attacks on civilians in urban areas where chemical weapons were used. It was terrible enough that former war criminal and dictator Saddam Hussein of Iraq used poisonous gas on the Kurdish minority in Iraq.

It appears that many people have forgotten the great civil society achievement in chemical arms control treaties when chemical weapons (in particular poisonous gas) were banned or controlled in several international treaties as early as 1675.  This diplomatic process culminated in the Hague Convention (1899), Geneva Protocol (1925), and more recently in the Chemical Weapons Convention (1993). All civil societies of the world are obliged to uphold these momentous achievements with force if necessary.

Thus, President Trump, Prime Minister May, and President Macron are justified to use surgical strikes against the war criminal, 2nd generation dictator in Syria to destroy facilities where research & development or production & storage of chemical weapons is occuring.