Global warming is coming for the countryside. Really!

New climate disinformation und demagoguery by the AAAS! E.g. the headline of this news article contradicts the mentioned research! 

The article heavily relies on climate model forecasts up to 2050! Laughable! Junk journalism!

Does this article/research confuse urban sprawl with rural areas? Quite possibly!

What is please "urban climate change"? Microclimate? How relevant is that compared to global warming/climate change? Or is this an admission that greenhouse gases are a red herring (junk science)? You bet!

This research also relies on junk climate models and forecasts of up to 100 years. Climate is a much too complex a phenomenon that is still poorly understood. Weather forecasts are still barely accurate for more than 48 hours or so and so on.

Does not the urban heat island effect already mess up the temperature measurement record for over 100 years or so given expanding urban areas and population growth? You bet! The urban heat island effect is perhaps the strongest reason why Global Warming is a hoax! Many of the systematic temperature measurements have been taken at meteorological stations in urban areas for the past 100 or more years..

Resolution of climate models is not a convincing metric!

"... But now a pioneering study [???] suggests that as global warming continues in much of the world, the countryside’s appeal as a climate buffer may dwindle. ...

But such regional models inherit the biases of the coarse global models and don’t capture feedback effects of cities on the broader climate. They have offered varying forecasts for the urban heat island effect: Some suggested it will stay the same, others saw it growing stronger, and still others forecast it would weaken. For the past few years, 20 modeling centers worldwide have been collaborating, hoping to converge on a verdict.

Taking advantage of increasing computing power, other researchers are pursuing global climate models that can simulate the whole planet at resolutions high enough to capture cities. As part of the European Union’s Destination Earth project to forecast the planet’s future, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has developed a high-resolution climate model. Researchers there used it to simulate a greenhouse-warmed world from 2020 to ’50 at a 9-kilometer resolution, fine enough to track urban climate.

The ECMWF team zoomed in on 200 cities in four climatic regions: cold, arid, temperate, and tropical. The results, published in June in Geophysical Research Letters, led to a surprising conclusion: 

By 2050, whereas cities on average remained hotter than the countryside nearby, “the rural surroundings of cities warmed up faster,” says Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, the study’s lead author. Except in cold regions, the urban heat island effect was weakening. ...

Fifteen years ago, a modeling study in the Journal of Climate had suggested a plausible mechanism for a weakened heat island effect [???]. ..."

From the abstract:

"Coupled multi-decadal global km-scale simulations completed in recent years open new perspectives in the investigation and understanding of urban climate change [???].

This study introduces a generic method for extracting urban areas and their rural references worldwide and validates it on hourly timescales with remote-sensing observations of land-surface temperature for over 400 cities, while identifying the key role of spatial resolution.

We showcase the immense amount of hourly data available for each city for 60 years of past and future climate [???] in the Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems simulations, and how these simulations represent surface-atmosphere interactions driven by urban areas.

We finally propose city clustering as a method to exploit these simulations and move beyond city-specific results. Results suggest a mean potential decrease in future urban heat island intensity driven by stronger rural warming for all clusters except for cold climates."

Global warming is coming for the countryside | Science | AAAS

Unlocking Urban Climate Change Analysis in Global Kilometer-Scale Climate Simulations (open access)

Städtischer Wärmeinsel-Effekt: Grund für die "Erderwärmung"?

Sehr empfehlenswert! Der städtischer Wärmeinseleffekt ist einer der Hauptgründe warum die globale Erwärmung/Klimawandel ein großer Schwindel ist!

On Urban Heat Island Effects in U.S. Summer Surface Temperature Data, 1895–2023

More empirical evidence that the so called global warming is to a very significant extent caused by the urban heat island effect!

Keep in mind: Global warming is a hoax and climate change is a religion! It is being used as a pretext by Big Government and the elite to interfere with our lives. It is among the greatest scams and scandals of at least the last 30 years!

"... Spencer and Christy’s method uses millions of thermometer observations to quantify the well-known tendency for urban areas to be warmer than rural areas. By relating difference in temperature to differences in population density, in six classes of population density and in 22 different historical periods between 1880 and 2020, the researchers were able to quantify the average rate of warming as a function of population density.

“While the statistical signal of urban warming was rather weak due to noise in the data from other non-urbanization effects on weather, it was very consistent, showing up in all six classes of population density across all 22 historical periods,” Spencer says.

“One of the interesting results was that the most rapid warming occurs as for population growth at the lowest population densities,” Spencer notes. “Then in heavily urbanized areas the warming reaches a peak, with little additional warming as population increases.”

The issue is important because the estimation of the rate of warming in the U.S. due to climate change can be influenced by non-climate processes, such as the Urban Heat Island effect, which would exist even without global warming. For the period 1895 to 2023, it was found that 8 percent of the rural warming trend was due to urbanization effect, increasing to about 65 percent of the observed warming trend for suburban and urban locations. ..."

"A novel method is described for quantifying average urban heat island (UHI) warming since 1895 in contiguous U.S. (CONUS) summer air temperature data. The method quantifies the sensitivity of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) station raw temperature to station-centered population density (PD). Specifically, closely spaced station pair differences in monthly raw (non-homogenized) TAVG (the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature) and PD are sorted by station pair average PD into six PD classes, and linear regression estimates of the temperature sensitivity to population density change (dTAVG/dPD) are made for each class for historical periods ranging from 1 to 21 years in length. Every one of the resulting six sensitivity relationships in each of 22 historical periods from 1880 to 2020 are found to be positive, and their magnitudes allow construction of station-average urban heat island temperature (TUHI) curves as a function of population density.

When applied to the history of population changes at each CONUS station location (1895–2023) and grouped into four categories of station population density, the resulting TUHI warming trends range from 8% of observed TAVG warming for the most rural category of stations to about 65% of observed warming for suburban and urban categories. Across all stations the UHI warming amounts to 22% of the observed raw GHCN warming trend, (+0.016 versus +0.072 °C decade−1). The method provides an independent way to quantify station-average UHI warming over time."

Urban Heat Island Effects in U.S. Summer Surface Temperature Data, 1895–2023 in: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology - Ahead of print (no public access)

Urban Heat Island warming effects related to population density are quantified for the first time (this article is written by the first author of the above research study)

UAH researchers’ climate study quantifies Urban Heat Island warming effects related to population density for the first time (official press release)

City rats are on the rise, and climate change and urban population growth are to blame. Really!

More alarmism and hysteria from the AAAS! Another case of junk science!

Like in the Medieval Ages for the American Association for the Advancement of Science climate change explains everything! 

Apparently, the AAAS is not aware of the urban heat island effect!

What about the lack of the usual, natural predators in urban areas?

"The warmer a city gets and the more people who move into it, the worse the rat infestations will likely become. That’s the conclusion of a first-ever global analysis of how and why rat numbers have changed over time. Smart, cooperative, and resilient, rats have co-evolved with humans for millennia and have fine-tuned their ability to take advantage of garbage, debris piles, sewers, and small postage-stamp sized plots of soil along sidewalks for food and nesting. The animals can transmit disease, spoil food and animal feed supplies—costing the United States $27 billion per year—and cause mental anguish in city dwellers.

To get a better handle on the problem, Jonathan Richardson and his team compiled inspection, trapping, and rat sighting records kept by 16 cities over an average of 12 years and compared trends in rat populations to how much temperatures had risen, how much more crowded the municipalities became and what was happening to parks, open lots and other green spaces.

Cities that experienced greater rates of temperature increase and more people moving in were more likely to have bigger rat problems; climate change emerged as a driving factor behind urban rat swarms, the researchers report. Disappearing green space also seemed to benefit rat populations."

From the abstract:

"Urban rats are commensal pests that thrive in cities by exploiting the resources accompanying large human populations. Identifying long-term trends in rat numbers and how they are shaped by environmental changes is critical for understanding their ecology, and projecting future vulnerabilities and mitigation needs.

Here, we use public complaint and inspection data [???] from 16 cities around the world to estimate trends in rat populations. Eleven of 16 cities (69%) had significant increasing trends in rat numbers, including Washington D.C., New York, and Amsterdam. Just three cities experienced declines. Cities experiencing greater temperature increases over time saw larger increases in rats. Cities with more dense human populations and more urbanization also saw larger increases in rats. Warming temperatures and more people living in cities may be expanding the seasonal activity periods and food availability for urban rats. Cities will have to integrate the biological impacts of these variables into future management strategies."

ScienceAdviser

Warmer, more crowded cities bring out the rats "A global study of urban rat populations explores why some urban environments are more infested than others"

Increasing rat numbers in cities are linked to climate warming, urbanization, and human population

When you combine two myth like the Global Warming hoax and the Population Bomb (published 1968)!

The Unreliability of Current Global Temperature and Solar Activity Estimates and Its Implications for the Attribution of Global Warming

Could be very recommendable! 

Keep in mind: Global warming is a hoax and climate change is a religion! It is being used as a pretext by Big Government and the elite to interfere with our lives. It is among the greatest scams and scandals of at least the last 30 years!

 

A few inconvenient facts are:

1. We still know very little about our sun, its solar activity and the periodic fluctuations of its activity.
2. Global surface air temperature measurement history are very flawed data (e.g. urban heat island effect)
3. There was the Medieval Warm Period not very long ago!
4. We just came out of the Little Ice Age around 1850 CE

Caveat: I did not read the whole article!

The Unreliability of Current Global Temperature and Solar Activity Estimates and Its Implications for the Attribution of Global Warming | The Heritage Foundation

Look at the maps below! Global weather stations were very sparse until 1950 CE! Most weather stations are located in urban areas (hint: urban heat island effect).

Extreme temperatures are rising in these global ‘hotspots’. Really!

A case for the urban heat island effect and flawed surface temperature measurements!

There is a strong suspicion here again that we are dealing with pseudo science produced by Columbia University and published in the prestigious PNAS!

This study might very well be another example of climate models being junk!

Keep in mind: Global warming is a hoax and climate change is a religion! It is being used as a pretext by Big Government and the elite to interfere with our lives. It is among the greatest scams and scandals of at least the last 30 years!

Is it not curious that most of these mapped hotspots coincide with centers of urbanization and areas of dense population around the world! A strong indication that actually the urban heat island effect is in effect!

Just look at Europe and Australia and Chile. Take in particular the very thinly populated continent of Australia, where these so called hotspots happen to coincide with Sidney, Melbourne, Canberra, and Adelaide, the major urban centers of Australia. Then we have Chile. Again the map below shows the so called hotspots are located where the major urban centers (Santiago, Valparaiso, Concepcion) are of Chile!

The map below also shows so called hotspots in the very northern and thinly populated regions of Canada. I strongly suspect flawed or even non existent historical surface temperature measurements. Similar the huge island of Greenland.

"New research has identified several regions of the globe where heatwaves are increasing at a rate far higher than state-of-the-art climate models have been projecting.  ..."

From the significance and abstract:

"Significance

Heatwaves can lead to considerable impacts on societal and natural systems. Accurate simulation of their response to warming is important for adaptation to potential climate futures. Here, we quantify changes of extreme temperatures worldwide over recent decades. We find an emergence of hotspots where the hottest temperatures are warming significantly faster than more moderate temperatures. In these regions, trends are largely underestimated in climate model simulations. Globally aggregated, we find that models struggle with both ends of the trend distribution, with positive trends being underestimated most, while moderate trends are well reproduced. Our findings highlight the need to better understand and model extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to avoid further harm.

Abstract

Multiple recent record-shattering weather events raise questions about the adequacy of climate models to effectively predict and prepare for unprecedented climate impacts on human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Here, we show that extreme heat in several regions globally is increasing significantly and faster in magnitude than what state-of-the-art climate models have predicted under present warming even after accounting for their regional summer background warming. Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall. To a lesser degree, models also underestimate observed strong trends of contraction of the upper tails in some areas, while moderate trends are well reproduced in a global perspective. Our results highlight the need to better understand and model the drivers of extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions [???] to avoid further harm from unexpected weather events."

Extreme temperatures are rising in these global ‘hotspots’

Unexplained [???] Heat-Wave ‘Hotspots’ Are Popping Up Across the Globe (original news release)

Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations

Fig. 3 Regional trends of extreme temperatures are underestimated in climate model experiments in multiple regions globally.

Regions where observed heat waves exceed trends from climate models.

Ancient Rome had ways to counter the urban heat island effect – how history’s lessons apply to cities today

The urban head island effect is probably the most important reason why so called record summer temperatures are reported in the media.

Previously, I was not aware that the urban heat island effect was well recognized up to 2000 or more years ago as this professor suggests. I am also not sure whether this professor confuses the awareness/recognition of an urban heat island effect and the heating up of an individual building in summer.

The nutty professor and author of the article below wants to radically transform our cities "for a climate changed world".

"... Civilizations have recognized the power of cities to heat themselves up and cool themselves for centuries. City architects in ancient Rome called for narrowing streets to lessen late afternoon temperatures. Narrow streets were found to cool the air by limiting the area exposed to direct sunlight. ..."

Ancient Rome had ways to counter the urban heat island effect – how history’s lessons apply to cities today

Book cover

Arbitrary tweaks to temperature data claiming ‘hottest day ever’ may be biased, faulty, experts say

Yes, indeed these temperature data are very dubious! Global Warming is a hoax and Climate Change is a religion!

One of the several major reasons is the urban heat island effect, which is anthropogenic and it affects temperature measurements of weather stations!

How many weather stations are e.g. located in remote and uninhabited areas?

Data manipulation by e.g. NOAA is another reason!

"... These claims are based entirely or in part on temperature datasets released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Some experts say the accuracy of the data is questionable. The agency adjusts the data using a complex algorithm that it says improves the quality of the data — and there are some legitimate reasons for the adjustments — but NOAA isn’t entirely transparent as to why some station’s data has been altered. ...
However, the number of stations within the network has declined over the past 30 years. In 1957, the network was composed of 1,218 stations. Certified consulting meteorologist John Shewchuk told Just the News that after 1990, due to the equipment aging and personnel retirements, the numbers began to decline. In 2020, there were only 830 stations left. ..."

Arbitrary tweaks to temperature data claiming ‘hottest day ever’ may be biased, faulty, experts say | Just The News Collecting temperature data isn't an exact science, and NOAA repeatedly adjusts the data, which the agency says improves its quality. Some experts are skeptical that the process isn't biased.

Maybe the real temperature data looks more like the blue data line

Rising global temperatures? Blame the Urban Heat Island Effect

Very recommendable! Much of the official at or near ground level air temperature time series data is seriously corrupted and compromised around the world!

Sydney records hottest start to summer in over 160 years. Really!

I invite inhabitants of Sydney to come to Phoenix, Arizona! This summer was like more than 60 days of temperatures between 40-45 degrees every day with not much cooling off at night!

Around 1860, the population of Sydney was only around 60,000 inhabitants or so. Today it is like over 5 million. That is called urban heat island effect!

The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850-2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

Global Warming is a hoax and Climate Change is a religion!

This study questions atmospheric temperature measurements. Most temperature measuring stations are located in urban areas thereby severely distorting global measurements. A fact well known for a long time, but deliberately ignored by the climate change propagandists.

The sun is probably the most important influence on climate on earth, but its role has been deliberately concealed or downplayed.

Last, but not least in the year 1900 only 1.6 billion humans were roaming the earth. In 2023, there about 8 billion humans. Each human is about 37C warm. Each human needs warmth when its cold outside etc. etc.

This study is very convoluted. Even the conclusions are a mess!

"... The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 °C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 °C/century. This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases. ...
Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric land component of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals that important challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming: (1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI [Total Solar Irradiance] time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI ; (3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warming since 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination."

Climate | Free Full-Text | The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

Credits: Neue Studie: Globale Erwärmung könnte zumeist eine urbane Angelegenheit sein

Hot Summer Due to Many Factors, Carbon Dioxide Not One

Recommendable! What do you know about the urban heat island effect or the huge submarine volcano eruption of 2021/2022?

Global Warming is a hoax and Climate Change is a religion!

The totally harmless, life essential trace gas CO2 is a scapegoat, a red herring or worse! Pure demagoguery!

"... Climate change is a complex, long-term phenomenon, driven by a combination of numerous factors at different locations during different time periods. We can debate the causes of the modest warming of the past 150 to 170 years until we are blue in the face: the extent to which human greenhouse gas emissions contribute to it; the extent to which present measured temperatures are an artifact, at least in part, of the urban heat island effect—as was recently revealed in Houston and Phoenix; deforestation; solar activity; large ocean circulation patterns; and so forth. But the truth is, a recently warming world serves as a backdrop or baseline for the recent heatwaves; it is not their cause. The question is, what accounts for the large temperature spikes this summer—which are widespread, but not universal? ...

One event that is contributing to a global rise in temperatures this year, and likely will for the next few years, is the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcanic eruption, described in more detail below. Water vapor makes up the vast majority of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, 98 percent or more, and the subsea Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai eruption added an additional 10 percent to 13 percent to atmospheric water vapor. Scientists from NASA and the European Space Agency agree this huge addition to the dominant atmospheric greenhouse gas is contributing significantly to this years’ temperatures. ..."

Hot Summer Due to Many Factors, Carbon Dioxide Not One

Wie der Deutsche Wetterdienst die Temperaturen durch seine Stationswechsel in den letzten 30 Jahren wärmer machte

Leider ein sehr langer und sehr konfuser Artikel, aber deutet in die richtiger Richtung!

Die sog. Erwärmung ist ein Effekt beeinflusst u.a. von statistischer Manipulation (z.B. selektieren von Messstationen) und Wärmeinseleffekt! Das ist seit vielen Jahren bekannt, wird aber nur wenig veröffentlicht!

Wie der DWD die Deutschlandtemperaturen durch seine Stationswechsel in den letzten 30 Jahren wärmer machte … | EIKE - Europäisches Institut für Klima & Energie

Corrupted weather Stations throughout the U.S. produce artificial warming of the atmosphere

Very recommendable! Probably, the atmospheric temperature measurements of hundreds of weather stations in the U.S. have been terribly flawed for many years, exaggerating the actual temperature. The urban heat island effect is one of the reasons. 

The situation in other Western countries is probably not much better!

How much is Climate Change mostly an urban heat island effect?

I have a strong hunch that the UHI effect has a lot to do with so called Global Warming! 

How much historical temperature data from weather stations around the world was manipulated to promote the propaganda and demagoguery of Global Warming and Climate Change has been an open question!

The following two links describe some work done in Canada to measure this effect. I am pretty sure that for e.g. the vast country of Russia you would get similar results.

Climate Change Weekly: Economics Threaten Biden’s Wind Plan UHI Biases Canadian Temperature Data

Canadian Summer Urban Heat Island Effects: Some Results in Alberta

Over 90% of U.S. atmospheric temperature Data have been found corrupted in 2009 and again in 2022

The situation is similar in Germany with the national weather service (Deutscher Wetterdienst)!

What is actually the atmospheric temperature time series like for e.g. the middle of Siberia or northern Canada? Either the data is not available or they won't tell you for good reason.

"A new study, Corrupted Climate Stations: The Official U.S. Surface Temperature Record Remains Fatally Flawed, finds approximately 96 percent of U.S. temperature stations used to measure climate change fail to meet what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) considers to be “acceptable” and  uncorrupted placement by its own published standards. ...
The research shows that 96% of these stations are corrupted by localized effects of urbanization – producing heat-bias because of their close proximity to asphalt, machinery, and other heat-producing, heat-trapping, or heat-accentuating objects. Placing temperature stations in such locations violates NOAA’s own published standards (see section 3.1 at this link), and strongly undermines the legitimacy and the magnitude of the official consensus on long-term climate warming trends in the United States. ..."

News - MEDIA ADVISORY: 96% of U.S. Climate Data Is Corrupted | Heartland Institute Official NOAA temperature stations produce corrupted data due to purposeful placement in man-made hot spots

Global Warming Caused By Urban Heat Islands

Posted: 8/1/2015  Updated: 5/3/2019, 8/22/15

Update Of 5/3/2019

Just read BIG NEWS – Verified by NOAA – poor weather station siting leads to

artificial long term warming

Quote (emphasis added): “I’ve been saying for years that surface temperature

measurements (and long term trends) have been affected by encroachment of urbanization on the placement of weather stations used to measure surface air temperature, and track long term climate”

The above article refers to following, recent research paper:

Impacts of Small-Scale Urban Encroachment on Air Temperature Observations (published 5/2/19 by the American Meteorological Society)

Excerpt (emphasis added): “A field experiment was performed in Oak Ridge,

TN, with four instrumented towers placed over grass at increasing distances

(4, 30, 50, 124, and 300 m) from a built-up area. Stations were aligned in such

a way to simulate the impact of small-scale encroachment on temperature

observations. As expected, temperature observations were warmest for

the site closest to the built environment with an average temperature

difference of 0.31 and 0.24 °Cfor aspirated and unaspirated sensors respectively. Mean aspirated

temperature differences were greater during the evening (0.47 °C) than

day (0.16 °C). ...

The experimental findings were comparable to a known case of urban

encroachment at a U. S. Climate Reference Network station in

Kingston, RI. The experimental and operational results both lead to reductions in the

diurnal temperature range of ~0.39 °C for fan aspirated sensors

”

Update Of 8/22/15

According to this article The Latest Climate Kerfuffle, NOAA refuses to correct the history of faulty temperature measurements

at Reagan National Airport, although NOAA admits that the temperature

sensor was defect for at least 1.5 years (i.e. Jan. 2014 through Jul. 2015) .

Guess what, this sensor measured too high temperatures by about

2 degrees Fahrenheit on average per day.

Trigger

Just read this piece by the Cato Institute The Progressive Increase of the

Urban Heat Island’s Influence on Temperature Records. Hereon urban heat island effect will be abbreviated as UHIE.

Quotes (emphasis added):

1. “One particular issue in this regard is the urban heat island effect, a phenomenon by which urban structures artificially warm background air temperatures above what they normally would be in a non-urbanized environment. The urban influence on a given station’s temperature record can be quite profound. In large cities, for example, urban-induced heating can be as great as Tokyo’s 10°C, making it all the more difficult to detect and discern a CO2-induced global warming signal in the temperature record, especially since the putative warming of non-urbanized areas of the planet over the past century is believed to be less than 1°C. ”
2. “Yet, because nearly all long-term temperature records have been obtained from sensors initially located in towns and cities that have experienced significant growth over the past century, it is extremely important that urbanization-induced warming – which can be a full order of magnitude greater than the background trend being sought – be removed from the original temperature records when attempting to accurately assess the true warming (or cooling!) of the natural non-urban environment. A new study by Founda et al. (2015) suggests this may not be so simple or straightforward a task.”

Implications

1. This is another major reason why we should be extremely sceptical about global warming temperature data, historical  (like the almost annual ritual of publicly declaring each year the hottest in history) and forecasted.
2. That CO2, methane and other alleged greenhouse gases are likely a red herring
3. That Global Warming Activists have reportedly manipulated surface temperature data by including more urban measuring stations and eliminating rural stations (this was reported for e.g. the U.S. and for Russia stations)
4. That the adjustments used by scientists to eliminate or reduces UHIE effects are either insufficient or deliberately inaccurate