Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Lasting Large Government Bond Yield Spreads In The Euro Zone

Larger Spreads Are Good News


I think large spreads of government bond yields of southern Euro Zone countries like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal versus Germany will remain for the foreseeable future which is a good thing. Finally, the capital markets are working again as they should by more realistically pricing risk. Profligate politicians will be reminded that credit has a price.

The Mirage Of Tight EMU Spreads From 1999 To 2007

If my memory serves me well then those spreads narrowed dramatically with the introduction of the Euro in January of 1999 and stayed within a tight range of roughly 50 basis points in the following years until 2007. In hindsight, this was clearly unrealistic. Just because a monetary union came into being all the risk factors that had affected individual member countries for decades all of a sudden did not seem to matter anymore. Incredible.

Higher Spreads Less Indebtedness

For instance, had Greece to pay a more realistic, higher interest rates on the issue of new government bonds it probably would not have accumulated as much debt, because Greece would have been unable to pay its obligations.

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