Friday, July 06, 2012

Significant Fertility Decline In Muslim-Majority Countries


A New Paper By The Hoover Institution

I did not read the whole policy review paper no. 173 by the Hoover Institution titled “Fertility Decline in the Muslim World” by Nicholas Eberstadt and Apoorva Shah.

A few selected excerpts from this paper:
·         “Notably, four of the ten greatest fertility declines ever recorded in a 20-year period took place in the Arab world (Algeria, Libya, Kuwait, and Oman); adding in Iran, we see that five of these “top ten” unfolded in the greater Middle East.”
·         “Libya’s and Egypt’s fertility levels for 2011 would be roughly on par with fertility for America’s large domestic Hispanic population with a tfr [total fertility rate] of 2.91 as of 2008.”

Given the population explosion in pre-dominant Muslim countries over the past 60 years or so this is good news and as the two authors point out it appears yet little noticed.

Population Size As A Weapon

If my memory serves me correctly, I read a long time ago it was Gamel Abdel Nassar and/or the Pan-Arabism/Arab Nationalism that promoted rapid population growth in Arab countries so these countries would be a counter-weight to imperialists and thereby increasing the influence of Arab countries in the world.

Implications

If true, these fertility declines cast serious doubts on any current or recent world population projections. Thus, we may reach peak world population much earlier than heretofore forecasted. Thus, the exaggerated alarmism or shall we say hysteria by environmentalists should be taken, as usual, with a big grain of salt.

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