A New Paper By The Hoover Institution
I did not read the whole policy review paper no. 173 by
the Hoover Institution titled “Fertility
Decline in the Muslim World” by Nicholas Eberstadt and Apoorva Shah.
A few selected excerpts from this paper:
·
“Notably, four of the ten greatest fertility
declines ever recorded in a 20-year period took place in the Arab world
(Algeria, Libya, Kuwait, and Oman); adding in Iran, we see that five of these
“top ten” unfolded in the greater Middle East.”
·
“Libya’s and Egypt’s fertility levels for 2011
would be roughly on par with fertility for America’s large domestic Hispanic
population with a tfr [total fertility rate] of 2.91 as of 2008.”
Given the population explosion in pre-dominant Muslim
countries over the past 60 years or so this is good news and as the two authors
point out it appears yet little noticed.
Population Size As A Weapon
If my memory serves me
correctly, I read a long time ago it was Gamel Abdel Nassar and/or the
Pan-Arabism/Arab Nationalism that promoted rapid population growth in Arab
countries so these countries would be a counter-weight to imperialists and
thereby increasing the influence of Arab countries in the world.
Implications
If true, these fertility
declines cast serious doubts on any current or recent world population
projections. Thus, we may reach peak world population much earlier than
heretofore forecasted. Thus, the exaggerated alarmism or shall we say hysteria
by environmentalists should be taken, as usual, with a big grain of salt.
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