Tuesday, March 28, 2023

The Future of Supercells with damaging hail and deadly tornadoes in the United States. Really!

This is more like the superspread of Global Warming hoax and Climate Change religion propaganda and demagoguery! The ideology of anthropogenic climate change has permeated and guided this research!

This is alarmism and hysteria dressed up as science! This pretense of knowledge reeks!

This is pseudoscience research published by the American Meteorological Society!

Climate models are essentially junk especially if they are used  to simulate for up to 100 year into the future! Too many things about climate are still unknown or little understood! Any serious and sincere scientist knows that! We can not even forecast weather accurately for more than 48 hours! The complexity of weather and climate is similar when it comes to forecasting!

One consolation: The senior author of this study, i.e. Vittorio A. Gensini, has only a very low citation count of 1302 according to Google Scholar. Hopefully, it will stay low thanks to studies like that!!!

Who helps spreading such demagoguery? Bloomberg School of Public Health via its daily newsletter! Mr. Bloomberg do you know what you are paying for?

From the abstract:
"A supercell is a distinct type of intense, long-lived thunderstorm that is defined by its quasi-steady, rotating updraft. Supercells are responsible for most damaging hail and deadly tornadoes, causing billions of dollars in losses and hundreds of casualties annually. This research uses high-resolution, convection-permitting climate simulations across 15-yr epochs that span the twenty-first century to assess how supercells may change across the United States. Specifically, the study explores how late-twentieth-century supercell populations compare with their late-twenty-first-century counterparts for two—intermediate and pessimistic—anthropogenic climate change trajectories. An algorithm identifies, segments, and tracks supercells in the simulation output using updraft helicity, which measures the magnitude of corkscrew flow through a storm’s updraft and is a common proxy for supercells. Results reveal that supercells will be more frequent and intense in future climates, with robust spatiotemporal shifts in their populations. Supercells are projected to become more numerous in regions of the eastern United States, while decreasing in frequency in portions of the Great Plains. Supercell risk is expected to escalate outside of the traditional severe storm season, with supercells and their perils likely to increase in late winter and early spring months under both emissions scenarios. Conversely, the latter part of the severe storm season may be curtailed, with supercells expected to decrease midsummer through early fall. These results suggest the potential for more significant tornadoes, hail, and extreme rainfall that, when combined with an increasingly vulnerable society, may produce disastrous consequences."

The Future of Supercells in the United States in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 104 Issue 1 (2023) (open access)

We are doomed! (Caution: Satire)

Fig. 3. Mean annual supercell track counts on an 80 km grid for the three simulation epochs: (a) HIST, (b) FUTR4.5, and (d) FUTR8.5. (c),(e) The mean annual supercell count track differences, or deltas, between FUTR4.5 and HIST and between FUTR8.5 and HIST, respectively


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