Posted: 2/9/2020
There is a good chance that we have reached the turning point or high point of this epidemic. According to today’s WHO Daily Situation Report, there are only 87 new severe cases reported from China and new confirmed cases added much less than 3,000.
A few observations in support:
Infections in China were apparently successfully contained within Hubei province, which accounts now for 72% of all confirmed cases. As of 2/1, Hubei province accounted for only 60.5%
Infections never really spread beyond China as there are still less than 400 confirmed cases outside of China
Caveat: Are reported numbers coming out of communist China reliable and accurate?
WHO Daily Novel Coronavirus Situation Reports
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Area
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Item
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Metric
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No 20
2/9/20
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No 19
2/8/20
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No 18
2/7/20
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No 17
2/6/20
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No 16
2/5/20
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No 15
2/4/20
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No 14
2/3/20
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No 13
2/2/20
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No 12
2/1/20
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No 11
1/31/20
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No 10
1/30/20
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No 9
1/29/20
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No 8
1/28/20
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No 7
1/27/20
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No 6
1/26/20
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No 5
1/25/20
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No 4
1/24/20
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No 3
1/23/20
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No 2
1/22/20
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No 1
1/21/20
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Global
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Confirmed
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Count
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37,558
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34,886
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31,481
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28,276
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24,554
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20,630
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17,391
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14,557
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11,953
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9,826
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7,818
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6,065
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4,593
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2,798
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2,014
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1,320
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846
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581
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314
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282
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Diff
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2,672
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3,405
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3,205
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3,722
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3,924
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3,239
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2,834
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2,604
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2,127
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2,008
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1,753
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1,472
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1,795
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784
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694
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474
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265
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267
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32
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Pch
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8%
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11%
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11%
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15%
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19%
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19%
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19%
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22%
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22%
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26%
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29%
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32%
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64%
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39%
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53%
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56%
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46%
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85%
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11%
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China
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Confirmed
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Count
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37,251
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34,598
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31,211
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28,060
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24,363
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20,471
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17,238
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14,411
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11,821
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9,720
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7,736
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5,997
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4,537
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2,741
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1,985
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1,297
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830
|
571
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309
|
278
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Diff
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2,653
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3,387
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3,151
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3,697
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3,892
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3,233
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2,827
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2,590
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2,101
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1,984
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1,739
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1,460
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1,796
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756
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688
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467
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259
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262
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31
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Pch
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8%
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11%
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11%
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15%
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19%
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19%
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20%
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22%
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22%
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26%
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29%
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32%
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66%
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38%
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53%
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56%
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45%
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85%
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11%
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Suspected
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Count
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N/A
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N/A
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N/A
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N/A
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N/A
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N/A
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N/A
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N/A
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N/A
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15,238
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12,167
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9,239
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6,973
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5,794
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N/A
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1,965
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N/A
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N/A
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N/A
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N/A
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Severe
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Count
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6,188
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6,101
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4,821
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3,859
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3,219
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2,788
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2,296
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2,110
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1,795
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1,527
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1,370
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1,239
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976
|
461
|
324
|
237
|
177
|
95
|
51
|
51
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Diff
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87
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1,280
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962
|
640
|
431
|
492
|
186
|
315
|
268
|
157
|
131
|
263
|
515
|
137
|
87
|
60
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82
|
44
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0
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Pch
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1%
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27%
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25%
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20%
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15%
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21%
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9%
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18%
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18%
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11%
|
11%
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27%
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112%
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42%
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37%
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34%
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86%
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86%
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0%
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Per Confirmed
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17%
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18%
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15%
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14%
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13%
|
14%
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13%
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15%
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15%
|
16%
|
18%
|
21%
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22%
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17%
|
16%
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18%
|
21%
|
17%
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17%
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18%
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Death
|
Count
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812
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723
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637
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564
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491
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425
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361
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304
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259
|
213
|
170
|
132
|
106
|
80
|
56
|
41
|
25
|
17
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6
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6
|
Diff
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89
|
86
|
73
|
73
|
66
|
64
|
57
|
45
|
46
|
43
|
38
|
26
|
26
|
24
|
15
|
16
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8
|
11
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0
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Pch
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12%
|
14%
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13%
|
15%
|
16%
|
18%
|
19%
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17%
|
22%
|
25%
|
29%
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25%
|
33%
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43%
|
37%
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64%
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47%
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183%
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0%
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Per Confirmed
|
2%
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2%
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2%
|
2%
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2%
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2%
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2%
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2%
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2%
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2%
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2%
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2%
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2%
|
3%
|
3%
|
3%
|
3%
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3%
|
2%
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2%
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Per Severe
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13%
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12%
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13%
|
15%
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15%
|
15%
|
16%
|
14%
|
14%
|
14%
|
12%
|
11%
|
11%
|
17%
|
17%
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17%
|
14%
|
18%
|
12%
|
12%
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Hubei
|
Confirmed
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27,100
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24,953
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22,112
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19,665
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16,678
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13,522
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11,177
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9,074
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7,153
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N/A
|
N/A
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N/A
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Hubei
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Per total
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72.7%
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72.1%
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70.8%
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70.1%
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68.5%
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66.1%
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64.8%
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63.0%
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60.5%
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Outside of China
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Confirmed
|
Count
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307
|
288
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270
|
216
|
191
|
159
|
153
|
146
|
132
|
106
|
82
|
68
|
56
|
37
|
29
|
23
|
11
|
7
|
4
|
4
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Countries
|
Count
|
24
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24
|
24
|
24
|
24
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
23
|
19
|
18
|
15
|
14
|
11
|
10
|
10
|
6
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
Death
|
Count
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
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