Sunday, February 09, 2020

Novel Coronavirus: Turning Point Reached?

Posted: 2/9/2020

There is a good chance that we have reached the turning point or high point of this epidemic. According to today’s WHO Daily Situation Report, there are only 87 new severe cases reported from China and new confirmed cases added much less than 3,000.

A few observations in support:
  1. Infections in China were apparently successfully contained within Hubei province, which accounts now for 72% of all confirmed cases. As of 2/1, Hubei province accounted for only 60.5%
  2. Infections never really spread beyond China as there are still less than 400 confirmed cases outside of China

Caveat: Are reported numbers coming out of communist China reliable and accurate?


WHO Daily Novel Coronavirus Situation Reports






















Area
Item
Metric
No 20
2/9/20
No 19
2/8/20
No 18
2/7/20
No 17
2/6/20
No 16
2/5/20
No 15
2/4/20
No 14
2/3/20
No 13
2/2/20
No 12
2/1/20
No 11
1/31/20
No 10
1/30/20
No 9
1/29/20
No 8
1/28/20
No 7
1/27/20
No 6
1/26/20
No 5
1/25/20
No 4
1/24/20
No 3
1/23/20
No 2
1/22/20
No 1
1/21/20
Global
Confirmed
Count
37,558
34,886
31,481
28,276
24,554
20,630
17,391
14,557
11,953
9,826
7,818
6,065
4,593
2,798
2,014
1,320
846
581
314
282
Diff
2,672
3,405
3,205
3,722
3,924
3,239
2,834
2,604
2,127
2,008
1,753
1,472
1,795
784
694
474
265
267
32

Pch
8%
11%
11%
15%
19%
19%
19%
22%
22%
26%
29%
32%
64%
39%
53%
56%
46%
85%
11%

China
Confirmed
Count
37,251
34,598
31,211
28,060
24,363
20,471
17,238
14,411
11,821
9,720
7,736
5,997
4,537
2,741
1,985
1,297
830
571
309
278
Diff
2,653
3,387
3,151
3,697
3,892
3,233
2,827
2,590
2,101
1,984
1,739
1,460
1,796
756
688
467
259
262
31

Pch
8%
11%
11%
15%
19%
19%
20%
22%
22%
26%
29%
32%
66%
38%
53%
56%
45%
85%
11%

Suspected
Count
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15,238
12,167
9,239
6,973
5,794
N/A
1,965
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Severe
Count
6,188
6,101
4,821
3,859
3,219
2,788
2,296
2,110
1,795
1,527
1,370
1,239
976
461
324
237
177
95
51
51
Diff
87
1,280
962
640
431
492
186
315
268
157
131
263
515
137
87
60
82
44
0

Pch
1%
27%
25%
20%
15%
21%
9%
18%
18%
11%
11%
27%
112%
42%
37%
34%
86%
86%
0%

Per Confirmed
17%
18%
15%
14%
13%
14%
13%
15%
15%
16%
18%
21%
22%
17%
16%
18%
21%
17%
17%
18%
Death
Count
812
723
637
564
491
425
361
304
259
213
170
132
106
80
56
41
25
17
6
6
Diff
89
86
73
73
66
64
57
45
46
43
38
26
26
24
15
16
8
11
0

Pch
12%
14%
13%
15%
16%
18%
19%
17%
22%
25%
29%
25%
33%
43%
37%
64%
47%
183%
0%

Per Confirmed
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
Per Severe
13%
12%
13%
15%
15%
15%
16%
14%
14%
14%
12%
11%
11%
17%
17%
17%
14%
18%
12%
12%
Hubei
Confirmed
27,100
24,953
22,112
19,665
16,678
13,522
11,177
9,074
7,153
N/A
N/A
N/A








Hubei
Per total
72.7%
72.1%
70.8%
70.1%
68.5%
66.1%
64.8%
63.0%
60.5%











Outside of China
Confirmed
Count
307
288
270
216
191
159
153
146
132
106
82
68
56
37
29
23
11
7
4
4
Countries
Count
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
19
18
15
14
11
10
10
6
4
3
3
Death
Count
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

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