Unlike the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who recently proclaimed a 12 billion world population at his press conference of the G7 summit in his capacity as the head of the G7 meeting, I don't think human population will go this high!
There is a good chance that world population at 8 billion has or almost has peaked!
China's population is already shrinking. So is the population of Western Europe, the U.S. if you subtract immigration. As prosperity makes progress in Africa, its population will most likely also begin to shrink. Similar tendency can be expected for India as poverty is further reduced and the further middle class expands.
Russia's population is also in decline and so on ...
Then there are other trends suggesting that world population growth is trending downward: Robotics (e.g. fewer workers needed, substitute for children), better health care (e.g. survival of children), artificial human like beings in the future ...
Counterfactuals: Improved longevity ...
"The global population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022, and India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, according to World Population Prospects 2022, released today on World Population Day. ...
The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under 1 per cent in 2020. The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100. ..."
The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under 1 per cent in 2020. The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100. ..."
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