Saturday, August 22, 2026

Why immune responses to vaccines vary from person to person and how to predict a vaccine response before vaccination

Good news! A still open question how much of the humoral immune response is inherited and how much is due to lifetime training of the immune system of an individual.

"... In blood samples from more than 4,000 people, ASU researchers and their colleagues measured antibodies against 185 antigens—targets recognized by the immune system, including those from common viruses and bacteria as well as targets associated with autoimmune diseases.

They then used artificial intelligence to analyze patterns in samples collected before and after COVID-19 vaccination, identifying antibody signatures that helped distinguish strong vaccine responders from weak ones.

The research opens a possible path toward more personalized vaccination strategies.

"What our study found is that certain biomarkers, when analyzed with AI, can predict who is likely to respond well to a vaccine, even before they receive it. This suggests that some people may be more immune-ready than others," ..."

From the highlights and abstract:
"Highlights
Pre-existing antibodies to common microbes predict new vaccine response robustness
• These sentinel antibodies are stable markers of humoral immune readiness
AI models use global antibody profiles to stratify high and low vaccine responders
Blunted vaccine responses occur in both immunosuppressed and healthy individuals

Summary
Predicting which individuals will mount poor antibody responses before vaccination could improve personalized vaccination strategies.
Here, we conducted a national longitudinal study of humoral immune responses to 185 antigens, including SARS-CoV-2 (n = 3), common microbial pathogens (n = 157), and autoantigens (n = 25), in 1,644 immunosuppressed patients and 2,445 healthy individuals before and after COVID-19 vaccination.
Although blunted COVID-19 vaccine responses were more frequent in solid organ transplant recipients and individuals with multiple myeloma, autoimmune disease, inflammatory bowel disease, and human immunodeficiency virus, responses were highly heterogeneous within every cohort, and approximately 5%–6% of healthy individuals also mounted weak responses.
Pre-existing antibodies to common microbes, including Staphylococcus aureus, respiratory syncytial virus, and human respirovirus 3, consistently predicted post-vaccination antibody responses in both healthy and immunosuppressed populations.
These broadly prevalent antimicrobial antibodies represent sentinel antibodies that may serve as biomarkers of system-level humoral immune competence.
Using global antimicrobial antibody profiles, we developed a deep-learning predictive model that stratified individuals according to their likelihood of mounting blunted vaccine responses.
Together, these findings identify pre-existing antimicrobial antibody profiles as scalable biomarkers of humoral immune responsiveness and provide a framework for predicting vaccine responses before immunization."

Why immune responses to vaccines vary from person to person

Why immune responses to vaccines vary from person to person (original news release) "Study finds past immune encounters may predict future vaccine response"


Graphical abstract


Figure 2 The multiplexed humoral immune profiling of 8,687 individual samples among seven cohorts


Figure 7 Pre-existing antimicrobial antibody profiles predict healthy individuals with low vaccine response to COVID-19 booster


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