I bet this is a seriously flawed high number, but I don't have the time to do research.
One suspected flaw of this study is already the to explain net migration data for individual states by using USPS change-of-address data. I am sorry, but a change of address says very little about the reason for the change!
Or the other way around, if the number is roughly correct, then it indicates that abortion has assumed to much relevance and it is performed too frequently. It would also indicate that the use of contraceptives is too low or not properly done.
"The estimated number of residents who left 13 states due to abortion bans in the year after the Supreme Court eliminated the constitutional right to the procedure, according to a recent paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The paper found that while those—mostly Southern—states had been gaining population at a significantly faster rate than other parts of the country, that advantage essentially vanished afterward."
From the abstract:
"We investigate whether reproductive rights affect migration. We use a synthetic [???] difference-in-differences design that leverages variation from the 2022 Dobbs decision, which allowed states to ban abortion, and population flows based on change-of-address data from the United States Postal Service. The results indicate that bans increase net migration outflows, with effect sizes growing throughout the year after the decision. The effects are more prominent for single-person households than family households, which may reflect larger effects on younger adults. We also find suggestive [???] evidence of impacts for states hostile towards abortion in ways other than having total bans."
How Abortion Bans Are Affecting Where Women Live and Work (???) "Three years after the fall of Roe v. Wade [2022], abortion bans have driven residents from some states, one study finds"
Are People Fleeing States with Abortion Bans? (NBER working paper, published January 2025)
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