Thursday, November 03, 2022

Nature journal: Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic could have prevented 1.3 Million deaths

I have blogged here several times that the once prestigious Nature journal has become a purveyor of propaganda and demagoguery. Here is another example!

These computer model simulations like the climate model projections are baloney and bogus! Pseudoscience, plain and simple! Take the reported deaths numbers, they are quite dubious to begin with! The authors of this study are extremely naive if not deluded!

Without the unprecedented efforts of the so called high income countries to develop in record time effective vaccines, the death toll could have been a lot higher.

About one third of all countries achieved herd immunity with their vaccination campaigns. This is a historical miracle!

Even without vaccines individual states and inhabitants could have done a lot to largely prevent or reduce the spread of Covid-19. 

"... In total, we estimate that a full vaccine sharing scenario would have prevented 295.8 million infections and 1.3 million deaths worldwide (as a direct result of COVID-19) by the end of 2021 without any associated changes in behavior ..."

From the abstract:
"The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The protection provided by vaccines and booster doses offered a method of mitigating severe clinical outcomes and mortality. However, by the end of 2021, the global distribution of vaccines was highly heterogeneous, with some countries gaining over 90% coverage in adults, whereas others reached less than 2%. In this study, we used an age-structured model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, matched to national data from 152 countries in 2021, to investigate the global impact of different potential vaccine sharing protocols that attempted to address this inequity. We quantified the effects of implemented vaccine rollout strategies on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the subsequent global burden of disease and the emergence of novel variants. We found that greater vaccine sharing would have lowered the total global burden of disease, and any associated increases in infections in previously vaccine-rich countries could have been mitigated by reduced relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results reinforce the health message, pertinent to future pandemics, that vaccine distribution proportional to wealth, rather than to need, may be detrimental to all."

Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic | Nature Medicine (open access)

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