What will China do if its interests in Africa are threatened by Michael Rubin

Recommendable, but a bit disappointing! This time, Michael Rubin only scratched the surface of this subject!

"Over the past 20 years, China has almost completely displaced the United States as the primary trading partner for countries in Africa. Nairobi roads sport billboards for new Chinese projects. To sit in the Addis Ababa airport, one of the continent’s top hubs, is to see flights almost entirely filled with Chinese businessmen departing for places like Djibouti, Juba, or N’Djamena.

Djibouti itself is especially important for China. It is strategic today for the same reasons it was in the late-nineteenth century when the French established it as a coaling station as France sought to be a global power. China’s political and economic investment in the port has been heavy. Not only does Djibouti now host China’s first overseas naval base but Beijing apparently also sees Djibouti as its gateway to East Africa and the Sahel.

In 2016, China inaugurated the Djibouti to Addis Ababa railroad, providing landlocked Ethiopia an outlet. ... Beijing’s ambitions likely remain high, however. Ethiopia may be a poor country, but it is still the continent’s seventh-largest economy. Between 2010 and 2019, its economy boomed, growing on average 9.4 percent per year. It is also resource-rich in terms of agriculture, minerals, and natural gas. ...
the Tigray Defense Forces [Ethiopia] have entered the neighboring province of Afar. Should the offensive continue against the backdrop of the ENDF’s [government forces] collapse, the Tigrayan force could, if the offensive continues, both disrupt the new Chinese rail project connecting Awash in Afar to Woldia in Amhara and cut the railway link between Addis Ababa and Djibouti that also passes through Awash. ..."

What will China do if its interests in Africa are threatened? | American Enterprise Institute - AEI