Posted: 9/20/2014 Updated: ditto
Trigger
There were several articles this week about a new published projection of world population, which claims that there would be around -9 -13 billion humans living by 2100. The U.N. Population Division was also involved in this projection. National Geographic reports that “The UN team estimates there's no more than a 5 percent chance of that rosier scenario coming to pass.” (emphasis added).
This projection contrasts with previous projections that claim a stabilization around 2050 and a possible decline thereafter.
List of a few, related articles:
- This appears to be the original study: “World population stabilization unlikely this century” (subscription required)
- Here is a long article by National Geographic (NG) “A World With 11 Billion People? New Population Projections Shatter Earlier Estimates Dueling projections of population growth present different visions of the world's future.” (Surprise, this article also questions the new projections)
Seriously Flawed
It is reported that this projection relied more on computer models, modern statistical methods etc. rather than on expert opinion. Humans can not even predict weather accurately for a few days. We also know from e.g. the intensive Global Warming discussion how flawed computer models can be especially if the modelers have an agenda. I would even suspect that Global Warming ideology has actually driven this population projection.
The forecasters of this new projection claim that the population of Africa will rise to about 4 billion from current 1.1 billion. This single, regional forecast alone explains probably most of the surprising outcome of this projection. It is anybody’s guess how birth rates on this continent will develop over the next 90 years or so. May I facetiously assume that the modelers have included a promiscuity factor in their model.
However, chances are good that many of those 50 countries comprising Africa will make fast progress in governance and economic prosperity. Why would African people want to be left behind? Only defeatists and fatalists would assume otherwise.
Apparently, the projection says about India: “... becoming the world's most populous country, with its numbers peaking around 2070 and declining to around 1.5 or 1.6 billion by 2100.”. This estimation is also seriously questionable. India’s middle class is rapidly expanding. Modi is a very different kind of political leaders than the Gandhi clan, which misruled the country for 60 years.
The Usual Gender Discrimination By U.N.
NG reports (emphasis added): “And finally, the IIASA model incorporates data on a crucial variable that's not contained in the UN or other demographic models: the level of education in a given population. Educating girls in particular has been found to be one of the best ways of bringing down fertility, at least in the long term.”
I am afraid both genders need more education, but perhaps not so much government indoctrination, but more private education.
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