I agree with the Breitbart journalists who wrote the article below.
There is essentially no historical data available since 1945 to investigate the economic effects of tariffs. Since 1945, the US and many other countries pursued and implemented global free trade through international agreements etc.
The first author of the paper, i.e. Tamar den Besten (Northwestern University), is a novice. Her lifetime citation count is only 23. She has published only two papers including the one below.
The second and last author of this paper, i.e. Diego R. Känzig (Northwestern University), is not much better. His lifetime citation count is only 1955, which is also very little. He published only 17 papers so far.
So far this research paper is only published as a working paper by NBER! It has not been reviewed nor accepted for publication by an economic journal.
Caveat: I did not read the research paper.
From the abstract:
"We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock.
Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently.
The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-World War II, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime."
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data (partially accessible to public)
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