Warming U.S. climate linked to rising deaths from heat < Yale School of Public Health. Really!

This or similar headlines have been appearing more often in recent times!

I would say it is largely propaganda and demagoguery if not manipulative  disinformation!

The researchers have pointed out that death from low temperatures is almost 14 times higher compared to death from high temperatures (or in numbers about 46,000 versus 3,400 deaths). However, these demagogues insist that the burden from high temperatures is increasing. Whatever that means!

Is it possible that e.g. the definitions of heat related mortality were changed?

How accurate or reliable are the historical data? This study e.g. uses only 20 years of most recent available data.

Were the data standardized to reflect the tremendous world population growth, aging populations, and massive urbanization over the past 100 years or so?

"... In a new study, YSPH researchers found that while cold weather continues to be a leading contributor to U.S. deaths annually, deaths linked to heat exposure surged more than 50% over the past two decades. Cold-related deaths rose from about 44,000 between 2000 and 2009 to more than 47,500 between 2010 and 2020, a 7% increase. Meanwhile, deaths associated with high temperatures climbed by 53%, from an annual average of 2,670 between 2000 and 2009 to more than 4,000 between 2010 and 2020. ...

The authors emphasized that the increase in temperature-related deaths is likely not due to climate warming alone but also reflects demographic changes — such as population growth and aging — that have elevated human vulnerability to environmental stressors. ..."

From the key points and abstract:

"Key Points

Question  From 2000 to 2020 in the contiguous US, what were the spatiotemporal patterns in the mortality burden from nonoptimal temperatures?

Findings

This case series of 54 223 429 deceased individuals found that both low and high temperatures were significantly associated with mortality burden, with low temperatures associated with more mean annual deaths (45 992) than high temperatures (3414).

However, the burden from high temperatures [???] increased by 53% from the 2000-2009 to 2010-2020 study periods; vulnerabilities varied by region, cause of death, and demographic factors (age, sex, and marital status). ...

Abstract

Importance  With a warming climate, it is essential to have up-to-date and spatiotemporally resolved quantification of the national mortality burden attributable to non optimal temperatures [???].

Objective

To investigate the mortality burden associated with heat and cold in the entire contiguous US from 2000 to 2020.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This case series assessed death records from the National Center for Health Statistics for all counties within the contiguous US from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2020.

The study used 2-stage modeling, with the first stage being a case-crossover design with county-specific conditional logistic regression of mortality on daily mean temperature incorporating distributed lag nonlinear models and the second stage pooling the estimates by meta regression. Based on the estimated exposure-response functions for temperature and mortality, attribution analyses for low and high temperatures were performed.

Calendar time trends were analyzed, and stratified analyses by cause of death and demographic factors (ie, age, sex, and marital status) were performed. This analysis was conducted from August 9, 2024, to June 16, 2025.

Exposures

Daily mean temperature and dewpoint temperature at a 4-km resolution for the contiguous US from the Parameter-Elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climate database.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause mortality and 7 specific causes, including endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases; mental, behavioral and neurodevelopmental disorders; nervous system diseases; circulatory diseases; respiratory diseases; digestive diseases; and external causes.

Results

A total of 54 223 429 deceased individuals were included in the analyses. Most decedents were 65 years or older (73.4%); 50.2% were male, 37.4% were married, and 35.1% were widowed.

Both low and high temperatures were associated with increased odds of death within 0 to 6 days. Compared with the minimum mortality temperature, temperatures at the 5th and 95th percentiles were associated with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.057 (95% CI, 1.051-1.064) and 1.011 (95% CI, 1.009-1.013), respectively.

The excess annual deaths attributable to low and high temperatures were estimated to be 45 992 (95% CI, 28 639-63 202) and 3414 (95% CI, 1650-5173), respectively, with regional variations and an increase in the high temperature burden from 2670 annual deaths during the 2000-2009 period to 4091 during the 2010-2020 period. Heterogeneity existed by cause of death, age, sex, and marital status.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this case series, non optimal temperatures were critical environmental contributors associated with mortality burden, with differential vulnerability by geographic location, cause of death, and demographic factors. These findings highlight the need for urgent actions against temperature-related health burdens through tailored climate and public health strategies, considering the local context and demographic profiles."

Warming U.S. climate linked to rising deaths from heat < Yale School of Public Health "Severe cold remains a leading mortality risk, but heat-related deaths surged more than 50% since 2000"

Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Burden in the US From 2000 to 2020