Good news! Hopefully, we will find more confirmation and make earthquake prediction a routine.
Let's add an earthquake forecast to the daily news of earthquake prone regions! (just kidding)
"Earthquakes may betray their impending presence much earlier than previously thought through a variety of anomalies present in the ground, atmosphere and ionosphere that can be detected using satellites, a recent study in the Journal of Applied Geodesy suggests. ...
Such anomalies are known as earthquake precursors, and although researchers are aware of them, it has been difficult to definitively identify a pattern of so-called red flags that could indicate an impending earthquake. This is because of the complexity of precursor interactions and their variability in different earthquakes and geographical regions. However, with every earthquake that researchers analyze using increasingly sophisticated satellite technology, these patterns are slowly emerging. ...
Professor Mehdi Akhoondzadeh of the University of Tehran assessed a variety of satellite data from the run up to and aftermath of two earthquakes that occurred on 6 February 2023 near the border between Turkey and Syria. This included data from the Chinese seismo-electromagnetic satellite, CSES-01, and the Swarm satellite mission which consists of three satellites from the European Space Agency. ..."
Such anomalies are known as earthquake precursors, and although researchers are aware of them, it has been difficult to definitively identify a pattern of so-called red flags that could indicate an impending earthquake. This is because of the complexity of precursor interactions and their variability in different earthquakes and geographical regions. However, with every earthquake that researchers analyze using increasingly sophisticated satellite technology, these patterns are slowly emerging. ...
Professor Mehdi Akhoondzadeh of the University of Tehran assessed a variety of satellite data from the run up to and aftermath of two earthquakes that occurred on 6 February 2023 near the border between Turkey and Syria. This included data from the Chinese seismo-electromagnetic satellite, CSES-01, and the Swarm satellite mission which consists of three satellites from the European Space Agency. ..."
From the abstract:
"On 6 February 2023, at 01:17:35 and 10:24:49 UTC (LT = UTC + 03:00) two earthquakes with magnitude 7.8 (37.166° N, 37.042° E, depth ∼ 17.9 km) and 7.5 (38.024° N, 37.203° E, depth ∼ 10 km), respectively, heavily struck southern and central Turkey and northern and western Syria. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relation between pre-earthquake anomalies observed in different layers of the earth system and explore the earthquake mechanism of LAIC (Lithospheric Atmospheric Ionospheric Coupling) associated with earthquake precursors. To achieve this goal, electron density and temperature variations obtained from CSES-01 data in the Dobrovolsky’s area the Turkey earthquakes are analyzed in the period from November 1, 2022 to February 10, 2023. Since investigating the LAIC mechanism requires multi-precursor analysis, anomalies obtained from CSES-01 data were compared with the behavior of anomalies obtained from other lithospheric, atmospheric and ionospheric precursors in the same location and time of the study area.
These anomalies that were analyzed in the previous study are:
(1) TEC data obtained from GPS-GIM maps,
(2) electron density and temperature variations obtained from Swarm satellites (Alpha, Bravo and Charlie) measurements,
(3) Atmospheric data including water vapour, methane, ozone, CO and AOD obtained from the measurements of OMI and AIRS satellites, and
(4) Lithospheric data including number of earthquakes obtained from USGS and also surface temperature obtained from the measurements of AIRS satellite. It should be noted that clear anomalies are observed between 1 and 5 days before the earthquake in electron density and temperature variations measured by CSES-01 during the day and night and they are in good agreement with the variations in the Swarm satellites data and GPS-TEC.
The interesting and significant finding is that lithospheric anomalies are detected in the land surface temperature data in the time interval of 19–12 days before the earthquake, and then most of the atmospheric anomalies are observed in the time period of 10–5 days prior to the earthquake and at the end striking ionospheric anomalies are revealed during 5–1 days preceding the earthquake. Therefore, the results of this study confirm the sequence of appearing of earthquake precursors from the lower layers of the lithosphere to the upper layers of the ionosphere during 1–15 days before the earthquake, and finally proving the LAIC mechanism can significantly contribute to the efficiency and lower uncertainty of earthquake early warning systems in the future."
These anomalies that were analyzed in the previous study are:
(1) TEC data obtained from GPS-GIM maps,
(2) electron density and temperature variations obtained from Swarm satellites (Alpha, Bravo and Charlie) measurements,
(3) Atmospheric data including water vapour, methane, ozone, CO and AOD obtained from the measurements of OMI and AIRS satellites, and
(4) Lithospheric data including number of earthquakes obtained from USGS and also surface temperature obtained from the measurements of AIRS satellite. It should be noted that clear anomalies are observed between 1 and 5 days before the earthquake in electron density and temperature variations measured by CSES-01 during the day and night and they are in good agreement with the variations in the Swarm satellites data and GPS-TEC.
The interesting and significant finding is that lithospheric anomalies are detected in the land surface temperature data in the time interval of 19–12 days before the earthquake, and then most of the atmospheric anomalies are observed in the time period of 10–5 days prior to the earthquake and at the end striking ionospheric anomalies are revealed during 5–1 days preceding the earthquake. Therefore, the results of this study confirm the sequence of appearing of earthquake precursors from the lower layers of the lithosphere to the upper layers of the ionosphere during 1–15 days before the earthquake, and finally proving the LAIC mechanism can significantly contribute to the efficiency and lower uncertainty of earthquake early warning systems in the future."
Fig. 1 The intensity map and geographic location of the 2023 Turkey earthquake. A black star indicates the earthquake epicenter
Fig 2 Variations of solar-geomagnetic indices of (a) a p, (b) Dst and (c) F10.7, in the time period of 1 November, 2022 to 10 February 2023. The abscissa represents the days relative to the Turkey (06 February 2023) earthquake day. A black asterisk “*” indicates the earthquake origin time. The values of geomagnetic indices (a and b) are displayed in quiet conditions with green color and in non-quiet geomagnetic conditions with red color.
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