The Qing Dynasty ruled China for 250 years before it suddenly collapsed. Scholars now think they know why

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The demise of the last Chinese dynasty in 1912 is not that surprising. There were several events that preceded it. E.g. industrial revolution in Russia and early Russian revolution in 1905, the  Meiji Restoration in Japan since 1868.

Then there was the backwardness, social rigidity, and self imposed isolation of China. Latter was a sign of hubris by the Chinese emperors thinking that China was so advanced relative to the primitive rest of the world (e.g. Chinese Wall). 

"... Yet, a pivotal moment in that history—the collapse of the Qing Dynasty in 1912— has always been difficult to interpret for historians. A new study has put this historic event once again in the spotlight, untangling the forces that dismantled China's last imperial stronghold but also offering a cautionary tale for contemporary China and beyond. ...
In 1820 at the height of the Qing, China was responsible for a staggering 32.9% of the world's GDP ...

For centuries, scientists have grappled with uncovering the Qing Dynasty's downfall. Environmental disasters, foreign invasions, famines, and uprisings were all previously considered culprits. Yet, none offered a comprehensive explanation.

In their new study, Turchin and colleagues have identified three surprising key elements that could have fueled the socio-political collapse of the once mighty Qing Dynasty.

Population Explosion: Between 1700 and 1840, China's population quadrupled, leading to decreased land per capita and increased rural impoverishment.

Elite Competition: As more individuals vied for prestigious positions, the number of awarded academic degrees declined, creating a pool of frustrated elite aspirants. This mismatch stirred the pot, with many disgruntled would-be elites participating in the bloodiest civil war in human history—the Taiping Rebellion.

Financial Burden: The state's financial burden grew due to the costs of suppressing unrest, declining productivity, and trade deficits due to depleting silver reserves and opium imports.

Together, these factors ignited a series of uprisings that marked the Qing Dynasty's demise and the loss of countless Chinese lives.
Contrary to previous assumptions, social tensions peaked between 1840 and 1890 and didn't escape the Qing rulers' notice. This underscores the dynasty's institutional robustness. Yet, their solutions often proved shortsighted, exacerbating the brewing tensions."

From the abstract:

"This paper analyzes the collapse of the Qing dynasty (1644–1912) through the lens of the Structural Demographic Theory (SDT), a general framework for understanding the drivers of socio-political instability in state-level societies. Although a number of competing ideas for the collapse have been proposed, none provide a comprehensive explanation that incorporates the interaction of all the multiple drivers involved. We argue that the four-fold population explosion peaking in the 19th century, the growing competition for a stagnant number of elite positions, and increasing state fiscal stress combined to produce an increasingly disgruntled populace and elite, leading to significant internal rebellions. We find that while neither the ecological disasters nor the foreign incursions during the 19th century were sufficient on their own to bring down the Qing, when coupled with the rising internal socio-political stresses, they produced a rapid succession of triggering events that culminated in the Qing collapse."

The Qing Dynasty ruled China for 250 years before it suddenly collapsed. Scholars now think they know why The Qing Dynasty's collapse serves as a cautionary tale, echoing through time to warn us about the perils of unchecked socio-political pressures.

Structural-demographic analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) collapse in China (open access)

The Qing Empire in 1820.