Wednesday, September 27, 2023

The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave (since 1996) - Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022. Really!

Nice example of junk science! This is not based on hard data, but on junk computer model forecasting! This about East Antarctica only, not Antarctica!

How much actual historical temperature data is there available for the Antarctica (from ice cores?)? The temperature data in this study start at 1996. What a joke!!!

That any respectable journal would publish such junk is incredible!

From the abstract:
"An unprecedented heatwave [???] impacted East Antarctica in March 2022, peaking at 39°C above climatology, the largest temperature anomaly ever recorded globally. We investigate the causes of the heatwave, the impact of climate change, and a climate model's ability in simulating such an event. The heatwave, which was skillfully forecast, resulted from a highly anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that advected an Australian airmass to East Antarctica in 4 days and produced record atmospheric heat fluxes. Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures anomalies had a minimal impact on the heatwave's amplitude. Simulations from a climate model fail to simulate such a large temperature anomaly mostly due to biases in its large-scale circulation variability, showcasing a pathway for future model improvement in simulating extreme heatwaves. The heatwave was made 2°C warmer by climate change, and end of 21st century heatwaves may be an additional 5–6°C warmer, raising the prospect of near-melting temperatures over the interior of East Antarctica."

The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022 - Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth - 2023 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library (open access)

Figure 1 (a) Dome C daily temperatures over 1996–2021 (gray), 2022 (blue), and the climatology (black), (b) as in (a), but hourly temperature for mid-March (the x


No comments: