Vladimir Putin’s Encirclement Of Europe

Recommendable! It is a particular dim outlook on the defensive capabilities and the strategic disunity of the European Union/NATO.

The article does not touch upon e.g. Russia's latest efforts in weapons development like hypersonic missiles.

"Russian propaganda, going back to czarist and Soviet times, often claims that Western powers are encircling Russia, forcing Moscow to be belligerent against its wishes. ... The claim of encirclement serves well to justify Putin’s neo-imperial policies. Russia’s wars in Georgia (in 2008) and in Ukraine (ongoing since 2014), its support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and the various forms of political warfare it carries out in Europe and the United States are considered responses to a consistent Western offensive. ... Along Europe’s eastern frontier, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, Russia has a sizeable military presence and has demonstrated its willingness to invade and control territories (e.g., South Ossetia in Georgia; Crimea and eastern Ukraine). It has entrenched itself in Syria in order to buttress Assad, returning to a position of influence in the Middle East that it has not held since the late 1970s. It has developed a partnership of sorts with Erdogan’s Turkey, convincing it to buy S-400 air-defense systems and thereby making that country an ever less reliable U.S. ally. It has built or upgraded seven military bases in the Arctic region, gaining control of one of the key shipping arteries between Europe and Asia, estimated to be 40 percent faster than shipping through the Suez Canal. In a surprising show of force in late 2019, Russia surged ten submarines into the North Atlantic, demonstrating a capability that had been dormant since the late Cold War. And in recent months it has increased its engagement in the messy war in Libya, becoming a key player in direct competition with Turkey in the political dynamics of this Mediterranean area. ... European security is increasingly at the mercy of Russia, and not just along the tense but geographically limited Central European frontier that historically separated the core of Europe from Moscow’s westward imperial aspirations. ... To deal with such a geopolitical encirclement, European states are adopting increasingly separate policies. ... “normalize relations.” ... keeping energy deals with Moscow alive while not wanting to follow the openly pro-Russian approach ... two European powers ... together with Moscow supports the opposing side in the Libyan war while [other European powers] are behind the U.N.-approved government. ... The Central European EU and NATO members are at best perplexed and at worst deeply worried by their Western allies’ friendly overtures toward Russia. And this is just one aspect, centered on Russia, of the various intra-European rifts. ... There are no European solutions to these growing divisions. The European Union is a complex but fragile and inefficient political construction that, in a geopolitical competition with a risk-taking imperial Russia seeking to expand its influence over the European continent, is incapable of achieving strategic coherence among its members. ... aimed at increasing intra-EU military cooperation and development. But these efforts often give the impression that the EU is seeking “strategic autonomy” from the United States rather than addressing the security threats around its frontiers. ... Moreover, no matter how many new coordinating efforts are launched by the EU or even NATO, the hard truth is that only a few European states are willing to take security seriously, devoting the necessary resources and mustering the national will to compete with Russia. The military capabilities of most European states remain atrophied.  ... A strong, coherent Europe, even if suffused with anti-American sentiment, would be preferable to the current situation of a weak Europe appeasing Russia and allowing Chinese economic penetration. The former could conceivably maintain repose on the Continent and prevent further Russian encirclement. A Europe that protects itself and radiates stability would be a welcome geopolitical development. But there are no signs that this will happen. Europe cannot find strategic unity from within. The EU-driven push toward “strategic autonomy” derives less from a shared threat assessment than from an aversion to the United States as the protector of the West, combined with a particular disdain toward the Trump administration."

Vladimir Putin’s Encirclement Of Europe | National Review