Monday, March 23, 2020

CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained

Recommendable overview article! However, like weather forecast models cannot predict weather more than 48 hours in advance with any accuracy, climate models cannot predict climate over decades or let alone for 100 years! Weather models and climate models are very similar in their size, complexity, and science involved!

Our understanding of climate is still very incomplete! Thus, these modeling attempts are at best guesses and should be treated as such! We still know very little about the sun, cloud formation, ocean currents and biology and much more ...

Since too many climate scientist involved in the climate modeling are too biased, the output of these models reflect that!

Climate scientists try to dazzle us with pompous terms like equilibrium climate sensitivity! In reality, ECS is more baloney than anything else!
"... Researchers are currently looking into what is driving these high ECS values. In a number of models the increase in ECS appears to be due to their improved representation of clouds and aerosols; for example, how models treat supercooled clouds (below freezing but still liquid) in the Southern oceans can make a big difference in resulting sensitivity. ... However, despite making the models more realistic, it is not yet clear whether these improvements are translating into more accurate estimates of ECS."

CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained | Carbon Brief: Climate models are one of the primary means for scientists to understand how the climate has changed in the past and may change in the future. These models simulate the physics, chemistry and biology of the atmosphere, land and oceans in great detail, and require some of the largest supercomputers in the world to generate their climate projections.

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