Could Turkey Pose as Great a Nuclear Threat as Iran? by Michael Rubin

Certainly, President Erdogan has shown strong ambitions and beligerence to become a modern Osman sultan in recent years! This has raised some questions about Turkey's membership in NATO.

"... While the world focuses on a possible Iranian nuclear breakout, however, a stealth nuclear threat looms. Turkey’s Russia-built nuclear plant will become operational this year. The notion that it is proliferation-proof rests on the assurance of Ankara and Moscow. Even if proliferation does not occur at the plant, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may replicate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s strategy. Iran used its Russian-built Bushehr reactor to legitimize orders and imports it could then divert to supply its covert program.

Speaking on the centennial of the beginning of Turkey’s independence movement just over five years ago, Erdogan hinted at nuclear weapons ambitions. “Several countries have missiles with nuclear warheads, not one or two. But [they tell us that] we can’t have them. This I cannot accept,” he declared. It was not a one-off event. On Sept. 7, 2024, Hayrettin Karaman, Erdogan’s personal theologian, published an essay arguing, “Either the Islamic world must unite and collaborate with China and Russia, or Turkey must move forward by acquiring nuclear warheads and weapons.” Erdogan has chosen both, apparently.

And, like Iran, Turkey seeks to work on the triad of weaponization: enrichment, warhead design, and delivery. Beginning in 2021, for example, senior Turkish and Pakistani generals and military industry heads have met, apparently to discuss delivery systems. ...

one important difference: While Israel can strike at Iran, Turkey’s NATO membership protects it from similar preemptive action. Erdogan may despise the West and hate its primary defense alliance, but he does not withdraw Turkey for two reasons: First, he can use NATO’s consensus provisions to paralyze it from within, and second, he wants NATO mutual defense commitments at least until Turkey gets the bomb, in effect using NATO as a shield against Israel. ..."

Could Turkey Pose as Great a Nuclear Threat as Iran? | American Enterprise Institute - AEI