Monday, July 29, 2024

Why the Communist Party of China model is failing

Very recommendable! Will we finally see the demise of the all dominating Communist Party! China needs more pluralism, federalism, and free market economy!

"The authoritarian China model under President Xi Jinping’s leadership is facing increasing failure. Its most critical flaw lies in the unconstrained power of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), arbitrarily intervening in market and social activities for the interest of itself or its leaders without robust mechanisms for accountability and self-correction. ...
The China model, in effect, is an institutional system that combines extensive state control and ownership of resources with limited free-market activity, all led by the authoritarian CCP. A main characteristic is the CCP’s ability to mobilise organisational resources efficiently and take the actions needed to reach a specific single goal. ...
Believing that the China model is superior to what the capitalist West has to offer and that the Chinese path to modernisation is the way to build a stronger nation, the CCP has enhanced its control at home and its influence abroad. Economically, Xi has applied measures to enhance the strength, size and performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) while imposing stricter regulation on the once-thriving private sector, especially tech businesses and finance. More than a dozen pieces of national security legislation have been passed or amended by Beijing since 2014, including anti-espionage, counterterrorism and data security laws. ...
And yet, despite the CCP’s belief in the China model, the Chinese market is losing its dynamism. The combined market value of private companies, which peaked at US$4.745 trillion in 2021, had fallen below US$2 trillion by the end of 2023. Foreign direct investment was a mere US$33 billion in 2023, less than 10 percent of the $344 billion reached in 2021 and the lowest level since 1993. Due to the decline in domestic consumption and investment, the youth unemployment rate  has exceeded a critical 15 percent since 2022, and the International Monetary Fund forecasts China’s annual GDP growth will be just 4.6 percent in 2024 and fall to around 3.5 percent by 2028. The West’s efforts to de-risk their economies ...
The IMF’s forecasts suggest that China has fallen into the middle-income trap, a phenomenon in which economies rise to a certain level of development below that of advanced nations and become stuck there. ..."

Why the China model is failing | The Strategist

No comments: