Wednesday, December 05, 2018

Khashoggi Murder: Cui Bono?

Posted: 12/5/2018  Updated: 12/24/2019, 12/14/2018
Update Of 12/24/2019
Saudi Arabia just sentenced five individuals to death and three others to long jail sentences in a closed criminal court trial. The secret trial probably has not met any Western standards, but it may serve some justice in this case and as a warning to future clandestine operations.
“The verdicts came after a trial in Riyadh’s criminal court that lasted nearly a year and was largely shrouded in secrecy, with sessions closed to the general public. … Diplomats from the United States, Turkey and several other countries were allowed to attend but told not to reveal details of the trial. Members of Khashoggi’s family also attended ...”
Update Of 12/14/2018
Just read this interesting article The regional factors bringing Turkey and Iran together from the ASPI (Australian Strategic Policy Institute).
A few salient quotes from the article (emphasis added): 
  1. “... In this context, Iran’s relations with Turkey provide a very interesting case study. Both Tehran and Ankara have regional ambitions that have sometimes led to friction between them, as was the case over Syria until recently. However, economic complementarities and congruence of strategic interests have helped to keep their relationship on a relatively even keel. ...”
  2. “When the Trump administration announced that it was going to reimpose sanctions on Iran, Turkey made it clear that it wouldn’t follow American diktats … Economic interdependence provides part of the explanation for the Turkish stand. Bilateral trade between Iran and Turkey isn’t limited to oil and gas. The volume of trade between the two neighbours stood at US$11.7 billion at the end of 2017, up from US$9.7 billion in 2016, and both countries have committed to eventually raising the level to US$30 billion.”
  3. “... Turkish and Iranian strategic interests coincide on Kurdish secessionism, which threatens the territorial integrity of both countries. ...”
  4. “... Iran’s support to Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the time of the failed coup in July 2016 greatly helped in patching up differences. The Iranian foreign minister stayed up all night as the coup was unfolding to monitor the Turkish situation and telephoned his Turkish counterpart five times to express Iran’s support for the government, thus strengthening personal bonds between the leaders of the two countries.”


Original Post
Disclaimer
I am not very familiar with many of the details of this prominent murder case nor with the Khashoggi himself. I did not have the time to do more research.
Very Briefly & Selectively About Jamal Khashoggi
 He is reported to be a:
  1. Supposedly, a dissident of the Saudi Arabian monarchy or the new king
  2. A reported supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and possibly Islamism sympathizer. What else? (Source: 1)
  3. “Khashoggi interviewed bin Laden several times, usually meeting bin Laden in Tora Bora, and once more in Sudan in 1995” (Source: 3). Men with such intimate access to Bin Laden are suspect
  4. He has become an instant cause celebre for the left. This by itself should immediately raise suspicions and concerns of red herring or instrumentalization
  5. He (59 years old at the time) was three times married and divorced and tried to marry a 36 year old woman he had barely known as was reported (Source: 1)
Briefly About The Alleged Assassination
  1. No body was found yet
  2. What evidence do we have that he actually entered and never left the Saudi consulate as alleged?
  3. The Turkish government supports the case of a murder inside the Saudi consulate.
    “The bulk of evidence about Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the killing of Mr. Khashoggi has come from leaks by Turkish authorities to pro-government news outlets” (Source: 2: emphasis added)
    “The New York Times confirmed that at least nine of the 15 suspects identified by Turkish authorities worked for the Saudi security services, military or other government ministries.” (Source: 2; emphasis added)
    So the Turkish government had audio recordings from inside the Saudi consulate? (Source: 3). How did they obtain these recordings?
  4. Why would Saudi Arabia apparently admit that the murder occurred within its consulate?
  5. That the CIA confirmed (see e.g. Source: 4)  that the new Saudi King ordered the assassination is probably baloney! This so called CIA confirmation seems to be based primarily on anonymous sources.
Possibly An Accident In A Botched Abduction Attempt
“Other alleged abduction attempts / Following Jamal Khashoggi's killing and mutilation, several other exiled Saudi activists reported that the Saudi regime attempted to lure them into their embassies.” (Source: 3)
“This week [around November 16th, 2018], the Saudi public prosecutor blamed the operation on a rogue band of operatives who were sent to Istanbul to return Khashoggi to Saudi Arabia, in an operation that veered off course when the journalist “was forcibly restrained and injected with a large amount of a drug resulting in an overdose that led to his death,” according to a report by the prosecutor.” (Source: 4; emphasis added)
Did Khashoggi indeed violently resist his arrest inside the consulate as reported or alleged? If true, could this also have contributed to his possibly accidental death? A situation got out of hand?
May I purely speculate that Mr. Khashoggi was even seeking death inside the Saudi consulate for fame/celebrity and martyrdom? Had he foreknowledge that he would be arrested? Will his surviving relatives benefit financially?
Hopefully, one day we will learn more about the facts & events leading to the disappearance & presumed death of Khashoggi.
If A Murder (Alleged Or Real) Happened: Cui Bono
As so often, the question who benefits the most from such a murder scandal needs to be raised. Let me speculate here for a bit (in no particular order or ranking):
  1. The new Saudi king would have been extremely stupid to be involved in such an assassination right at the start of his reign. Do we really believe he was that stupid? There are many more subtler ways to get rid of or marginalize a dissident etc. Would the new king indeed resort to such a scheme to possibly get rid of internal rivals by blaming them for the murder afterwards? That would be almost a story out of Thousand And One Nights!
  2. Was it a palace intrigue against the new Saudi king? Possible, but not too plausible! Would have any perpetrator be so stupid to jeopardize Saudi Arabia’s international relations in such a blunt fashion amidst hostile tensions with Iran and a ongoing war in Yemen? To risk such high stakes fall out defies credibility!
  3. Israel: Israelis are way too smart to dare such an international affair and it is not in their interest at all. This murder does not fit very well the pattern of past clandestine operations of Israel. Plus, there was a recent, remarkable thawing of relations between Israel & Saudi Arabia with the promise of better relations going forward. This recent, unusual improvement in relations between Israel & Saudi Arabia alone could have been a strong motive for a daring act to undermine this development to keep the Middle East in perpetual turmoil
  4. Russia’s Putin the Terrible: Putin is a high probability contender for having perpetrated this murder. Russia has the most to gain from strains on the U.S.-Saudi relationship and beyond
  5. Iran: Also a very high probability contender. The rivalry or hostility between Iran, U.S. and Saudi Arabia for dominance in the region is legendary
  6. Islamist or other terrorists: Possible, but these murderers were then probably only pawns
  7. North Korea: Using a potent chemical weapon (VX nerve agent) to assassinate on a major airport (Kuala Lumpur International Airport in 2017) a potential rival for the dictatorship would certainly qualify this rogue state. Perhaps, they acted to please Russia and assure Russia’s committed support for the regime?
  8. Turkey: Not sure why the Turkish autocrat Erdogan is probably colluding in the murder. Perhaps, Erdogan is trying to make up with Russia or Iran?
Sources:

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