Good news! Or about every 17th person in Arizona is naturally immunized by now. Thus, natural immunity has already reached a high level in Arizona and probably in many other parts of the world! Let's not forget SARS-CoV-2 is overall a fairly harmless virus!
I did a very rough back of the envelope calculation. Why is the general public not provided with similar and much better model projections about the trajectory of Covid-19? Why this public misinformation!
Main presumptions:
- An infected person is infectious for 10 days
- On average there are about 6,000 new confirmed cases per day that translates into 60,000 infected people in Arizona on any given day
- I assumed for this calculation, there would be 100,000 total infected persons in Arizona on 12/29/2020
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