Tuesday, December 29, 2020

About 400,000 Arizonans or 6% of Arizona's Population are naturally immune to Covid-19 as of 12/29/2020

Good news! Or about every 17th person in Arizona is naturally immunized by now. Thus, natural immunity has already reached a high level in Arizona and probably in many other parts of the world! Let's not forget SARS-CoV-2 is overall a fairly harmless virus!

I did a very rough back of the envelope calculation. Why is the general public not provided with similar and much better model projections about the trajectory of Covid-19? Why this public misinformation!

Main presumptions:

  1. An infected person is infectious for 10 days
  2. On average there are about 6,000 new confirmed cases per day that translates into 60,000 infected people in Arizona on any given day
  3. I assumed for this calculation, there would be 100,000 total infected persons in Arizona on 12/29/2020

Population7,400,000
Confirmed Cases507,000
Active Cases100,000
Recovered407,000
Recovered/Pop6%

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