The Next Global Arms Race Is On And It Is Fast

Posted: 1/20/2014  Updated: 2/8/2019, 1/27/2014

Update Of 2/8/2019

The Center for a New American Security just published Understanding China's AI Strategy Clues to Chinese Strategic Thinking on Artificial Intelligence and National Security (2/6/2019)

We learn among other things (emphasis added):

1. “China’s leadership – including President Xi Jinping – believes that being at the forefront in AI technology is critical to the future of global military and economic power competition”
2. “Despite expressing concern on AI arms races, most of China’s leadership sees increased military usage of AI as inevitable and is aggressively pursuing it. China already exports armed autonomous platforms and surveillance AI.”
3. “... “Intelligence supremacy will be the core of future warfare” and that “AI may completely change the current command structure, which is dominated by humans” to one that is dominated by an “AI cluster.””
4. “China’s behavior of aggressively developing, utilizing, and exporting increasingly autonomous robotic weapons and surveillance AI technology runs counter to China’s stated goals of avoiding an AI arms race”
5. “China’s Ministry of National Defense has established two major new research organizations focused on AI and unmanned systems under the National University of Defense Technology (NUDT)”
6. “China’s government sees AI as a promising military “leapfrog development” opportunity, meaning that it offers military advantages over the US and will be easier to implement in China than the United States.”

However, there are areas where China has some catch up to do like specialized hardware and nanoscale chip production.

Update As Of 1/27/2014

The Australian think tank The Strategist just two papers here and here.

Trigger

The past week (1/17/2014) we learnt that China tested some kind of hypersonic aircraft or drone (see e.g. here, here).

Every Several Months

So it seems we learn in the news media of another advance of China in its military weaponry. Not to mention that China is heading for the moon.

Certainly, these developments are of serious concern and an enormous challenge for the West.

Fast Shifting Global Power

The speed of China’s catch up with latest military technology is breathtaking.

What will e.g. India, Japan, Australia, or South Korea do?

Western Europe looks more and more like a former giant tied down like Gulliver of Gulliver’s Travel fame (but not by Lilliputians), falling further behind in the defense arena.

This Arms Race Is Different

The bureaucratic and highly paranoid former Soviet Union was its worst enemy bogged down by and seriously crippled by central planning.

The Chinese people are vastly different from the Russians. The Chinese were an very advanced culture 1,000s of years ago for many hundred years. The Chinese were once leading in science and technology. Chinese are very capable of complex and abstract thinking.

Will the Chinese people be peaceful? The chances are good based on history, but trust but verify (a Russian proverb quickly picked up and frequently employed by President Reagan)!

Previous, Related Blog Posts

Here, here, and here.