Was The Pentagon Ill Prepared In Responding To Iran's Downing Of A U.S. Drone?

Posted: 6/21/2019  Updated: 6/24/2019, 6/22/2019

Update Of 6/24/2019

It appears that President Trump is quite adept in using diversionary tactics when he told the world that he called off a military strike against Iran. Or was another branch of the Pentagon eager to get in on the action resenting that cyber warfare had precedence this time?

Meanwhile, we learnt that President Trump launched an offensive cyber attack against Iran. This in itself is still fairly a novum for the U.S. unless other attacks went unreported (of course there was Stuxnet; S1). We know that Russia has in the recent past resorted to cyber attacks against e.g. Baltic states.

We also learned that “Thursday’s [6/20/19?] strikes against the Revolutionary Guard represented the first offensive show of force since Cyber Command was elevated to a full combatant command in May.” (S1; emphasis added)

Apparently, Iran itself has created a presumably formidable cyber force. Iran is also accused of having employed cyber attacks against several countries (e.g. Israel; UK, Saudi Arabia; S1, S2). 

Sources (S):

1. Trump approved cyber-strikes against Iran’s missile systems (published 6/22/19)
2. Cyberwarfare in Iran (this Wikipedia entry appears to be dated)

Update Of 6/22/2019

Just read this very recommendable article by Michael Rubin: Is Iran close to collapse? Three things you need to know about the US-Iran showdown. Here Rubin pointedly mocks the flawed and long prevailing attitude of “conciliation trumps coercion on Iran” (nice play on words).

The very knowledgeable Rubin thinks that the regime in Iran is collapsing in the near term. The gerontocracy/theocracy has serious succession issues and issues to hold on to power much longer. Will there be a military coup?

Michael Rubin is also the author of the book with a very fitting title: “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes”, which Rubin refers to in the above article as “... a history of US diplomacy with rogue regimes and terrorist groups, there is precedent to the Islamic Republic caving under pressure ...” (emphasis added)

Original Post

The unusual story that President Trump was “cocked and loaded” for a military strike against Iran in response to the recent downing of a U.S. drone hovering near or above Iranian air space before he aborted the mission last minute, has created quite a stir in the media.

Was Trump just giving Iran an ultimate warning to behave and negotiate or was there something else?

May I speculate that the U.S. Defense Department was perhaps ill prepared for this scenario. Even though this scenario should have been rehearsed many times over the years. Apparently, the strike was cancelled due to possibly large loss of human life or because it was not proportionate. In either case, it suggests that the Pentagon did some shoddy planning!

Former President Bush Jr. made already the enormous mistake not to warn or attack Iran when Iran was obviously and persistently killing significant numbers of U.S. soldiers in the 2003 Iraq war. President Obama, in his grand naivete and stupidity, signed a horrible nuclear deal with Iran. One can also surmise that the Pentagon did not plan for any conflicts with Iran during the Obama administration.