If Mitt Romney Wins The Election The US Economy Will Take Off

One can only hope the American people do the right thing on November 6^th, 2012 and send Business Enemy No. 1 President Obama packing. Then, the largely held back US economy most likely will finally see a recovery as is typical in the wake of such a deep recession.

Like President Franklin D. Roosevelt unnecessarily prolonged the Great Depression, President Obama has done the same for the Great Recession.

However this election outcome is not a sure thing, decades of government dependency by large segments of the US population have deeply undermined the American spirit and dream.

New Genetic Tests For Autism

A Highly Recommendable Article
In The Wall Street Journal

My apologies again for my shameless reference to a long article titled “Progress in Identifying the Genetic Roots of Autism” published today (9/25/2012) in the Wall Street Journal, but it goes to show that Wall Street is really not about business and profit as some would like to believe us.

Environmental Factors

Since this article is primarily about genetic causes, it only mentions that environmental factors also play a significant role without further discussing it.

I have previously written a blog post about the link between Autism and obesity in mothers.

Meanwhile, I have read articles about the link of Autism and aging fathers, because of the increase of random mutations as they age. By the way, this study was led by the Icelandic firm Decode Genetics.

Possible Fallacies

This article could lead desperate parents to believe that there is or must be a genetic cause for every autism case among the vaguely termed Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Therefore, there must be a cure available in the near future.

Given the intense research in this area and the increased public awareness, there may be a tendency to diagnose all sorts of symptoms as ASD. The article also mentions the dramatic increase in such diagnoses saying “ASD now affects 1 in every 88 U.S. children—nearly double the rate in 2002—according to the Center for Disease Control.”. This is like a sudden epidemy. How many are possibly misdiagnoses?

Possible Import

Rapid progress in Autism research may also benefit psychological/psychiatric disorders in general.

Arizona Unemployment Insurance: Work Search Requirements Are An Insult

I have previously written another blog post on Unemployment Insurance in Arizona.

An Update

Yesterday (9/25/2012), I have received two letters (each one page) in the mail from the Arizona Department of Economic Security/Unemployment Insurance Administration (AZUIA), both dealing with the work search requirements.

The first letter contains following line in the letter head “New Work Search Eligibility Requirements Effective August 5, 2012” (Emphasis added). This letter contains “Important Information”, about two thirds of the letter explains in more details what “systematic and sustained work search” means.

The second letter is captioned “Clarification of Work Search Requirements”. It says “[t]here has been a lot of confusion and misunderstanding on how to report work search requirements …”. Oh, really!

Then, AZUIA provides a sample table of what an “adequate” work search should look like with the caveat “(DO NOT COPY)” (Emphasis original). Are the taxpayers or are the bureaucrats morons?

I say what a moronic waste of taxpayers’ money!

Brief Background

Following information is presented on screen, when an unemployed person does her/his weekly unemployment claims reporting online as he or she is asked to enter work search efforts into an online work search log:

“Per A.R.S. [Arizona Revised Statutes?] 23-771.A.4, all claimants must conduct a systematic and sustained Work Search for each week of Unemployment Insurance benefits claimed.

A systematic and sustained Work Search consists of contacts during at least four days of the week.

If you select ‘Other’ please provide the Employer name, address and/or phone number, method of contact along with any other information.”

An Outrage

To put it bluntly, I think this online form to report your weekly work search efforts is outrageous!

Do these lawmakers not know that job search is a demanding full time job that comes with many disappointments along the way especially during the Great Recession? As if I have to be told by lawmakers that I “must conduct a systematic and sustained Work search”.

For a meager maximum of $240 unemployment insurance benefit per week (about 25% of what I used to make a week), I have to keep track where I applied etc. and spend up to about 10 minutes of my time to fulfill this bureaucratic requirement using a cumbersome web form. Not to mention that unemployment benefits are usually paid only for a maximum of 26 weeks. Hint to lawmakers: I do not mind if you shorten this period.

This meager unemployment benefit has to cover our rent, utilities, my health insurance premium, food, federal/state income taxes (yes, this is taxable income.) etc. On top of that these lawmakers want me to report my work search efforts, this is an insult.

Finally, it is none of the business of government to require me to report which employers I contacted when during my work search.

Waste Of Taxpayers’ Money

In August of 2012, there were almost 250,000 reported unemployed persons in Arizona. If only 50% of those have to fill out this weekly work search requirement and if we assume an Arizona Department of Economic Security (DES) employee would spend 1 minute per weekly report on verifying this information, this would amount to the DES having to spend 260 work days per week just to check if it is done manually. Or did the DES buy a possibly expensive software to do this verification? Do they statistically sample? Anyway, if the DES tries to verify it would be a substantial waste of taxpayers’ money!

If the DES does not verify, then this is just another burden on the unemployed. So what the heck is this good for?

Diagnosing Psychological Disorders In Children

Disclaimer

I have no expertise whatsoever in this area. However, I am not entirely without personal experience. Psychological disorders and their medical treatment is a subject of interest to me. Further, I am only trying to briefly summarize certain thoughts that came to me when reading various articles related to this complex subject. I have intentionally not sourced this article very well for sake of brevity and time.

An Increasing Trend

It appears there has been an increasing trend in recent decades to diagnose children with different forms of psychological disorders (e.g. ADHD, Autism, psychosis etc.). One can almost get the impression of an ongoing, unprecedented epidemy or is it a phenomenon.

I have included Autism here as well, because the unusual outward behavior and the significant expansion of its definition to autism spectrum disorder. Latter development is usually a sign that doctors are clueless when they attach terms like “spectrum”. In my opinion, there is a significant chance for misdiagnosis. Yes, the US government describes Autism on their PubMed website as “… a physical condition linked to abnormal biology and chemistry in the brain. The exact causes of these abnormalities remain unknown, but this is a very active area of research. There are probably a combination of factors that lead to autism. Genetic factors seem to be important.”. Well is this not true of other psychological disorders as well?

Possible Explanations

Doctors have over time become better in diagnosing such disorders, which have been in the past very difficult or impossible to diagnose or children went simply untreated. Latter assertion is quite true for psychology/psychiatry in general and not only in the past. Ambiguous disorders like psychological disorders are great business for doctors. To use a hyperbole, doctors since time immemorial like to expand and deepen their diagnostic tools almost to the point to declare everyone in need of medical treatment who enter their offices. Illnesses are infinite.

In recent times, more focus and money was assigned to this subject. Huge media attention has spread, parents are primed to be alert. Stigma, taboos are reduced, acceptance is improved. E.g. in the US, special needs education has proliferated receiving lots of money and special teachers. The more special needs children the better for school funding and teacher salaries.

There is the distinct possibility that a self-feeding vicious or virtuous cycle was entered in connection with this subject. And it will take perhaps decades before reasonable judgment returns.

Genius And Madness

I believe, most people have heard about the close link between genius and madness. Two recent movies “A Brilliant Beautiful Mind” (about John Nash) or “The Aviator” (about Howard Hughes) captured this topic quite well.

I highly recommend to watch both movies, in particular the first one, because it shows you how this brilliant mathematician and his wife suffered from the medications he was given and how he himself defeated the demons. The way he defeated the demons is, I believe, sometimes also prescribed by doctors even for children to learn how to cope with demons etc. in a playful way.

Children that are perceived as not “normal” may have special talents and gifts unlike other children. Early, aggressive treatment may only achieve forced conformity to “normal” and kill these special talents or gifts that would otherwise develop to the benefit of the child and the world. As they say if you can dream it you can achieve it. Vivid imagination or unusual behavior may after all be completely harmless and beneficial for the child’s development.

I am far from implying here that any child with a diagnosed or perceived psychological disorder is going to be the next genius. This would be a colossal misunderstanding.

Suggestions Or Food For Thought

Parents are naturally very concerned if they observe anything perceived to be not normal about their children. Naturally, parents seek help from a doctor. Given the great ambiguity of this subject, more than one doctor should be consulted and doctors of different specializations or of different approaches.

Keep in mind, psychology and psychiatry still remain very inexact fields of medicine. It’s more charlatanry than medicine.

It is very understandable that parents seek a rational explanation and the best medical treatment for their children, but be alert to the pitfalls. Yes, parents are very concerned about the possibly negative prospects of their child like antie social life/behavior, unsteady professional career, alcoholism, drug abuse, failed relationships, crime etc. that are commonly associated with psychological disorders. However, an overreaction to the diagnosis may have the same or similar outcome.

Depending on the severity or circumstances, I would not easily have my child being treated especially not over an extended period of time with certain psycho pharmaceutical medications, e.g. mood stabilizers, anti convulsants. Sometimes just close observation, change of daily routines, or other behavioral approaches etc. are perhaps better.

Some research seems to indicate that abnormal, psychotic like behavior in childhood disappears even without any treatment as they reach adulthood or later in life.

What are the long-term implications for our children if so many kids are classified as having a disorder and are in need of treatment? I do not mean to be in denial, but I want to caution.

Misguided Demand For A Return To The Gold Standard

Western Central Banks Are Culpable For The Great Recession

There is little doubt in my mind that the central banks (big government entities) of Western countries are to a large extent responsible for the Great Recession and the rapid and unsustainable expansion of government debt that has occurred over the past two decades.

Twice in the last ten years Western central banks have lowered the price of money (key interest rates) to nearly zero for extended periods of time and they still continue this reckless policy as I write this blog. In at least to other, previous blog posts, I have discussed this issue in more depth.

Return To Gold Standard To Reform The Monetary System

Thus, it is understandable that central banks have finally come under enormous scrutiny. Alternatives to the current, perceived to be broken, monetary system are being considered. One possible alternative, which has garnered some popularity, is the call for a return to the Gold Standard.

Digital Money Is Next

Gold is totally antiquated and nostalgic. We are on the cusp to introducing digital money.

Gold is easily manipulated and dependent on mining, jewelry demand, and human save haven fears.

Only Luddites would call for a return to the Gold Standard. The only thing, I believe, was a benefit of the Gold Standard is that it quasi represented a single, global currency or a point of reference with all its consequences.

A Capital Gains Tax Primer

A Primer By The Wall Street Journal

I did not have to write my own, the Wall Street Journal did a fine job by publishing one in the US weekend edition (9/22/2012) titled “A Capital Gains Primer” (Unfortunately by subscription only). I think this great newspaper is doing the general public a disfavor not to make this good article available.

Brief Summary

In the US, capital gains taxes are a form of double taxation, because business profits are taxed first, then their distribution to investors.

All Americans investing in the stock market or directly in enterprises benefit from low capital gains taxes. American employees benefit from higher business investments through better employment opportunities and higher wages. Thus, those who claim only “millionaires and billionaires” are populist demagogues who do not have the slightest clue how a free market economy works.

Arizona Unemployment Insurance Administration – Treating You Like A Criminal

Meanwhile, I wrote a follow up blog post on unemployment insurance in Arizona.

For A Few Dollars

For laughable $240 per week or even less you are being treated in a demeaning way and like a criminal. From this little money I would also need to pay for my health insurance (but ObamCare is not the solution). It's almost as if you have to beg for this money.

Still Operating In the 19^th Century

After you register online as an unemployed for the first time, the AZUIA (Arizona Unemployment Insurance Administration) sends you within a few days three separate letters in the snail mail with forms, booklets and tables.

Of those tons of questions you are being asked or the items you need to certify, too many of them kind of imply that you are only out there to cheat and defraud the AZUIA. This is what I call demeaning.

If you indicate during your online registration that you expect to receive some severance pay, AZBIA will send you a questionnaire with at least 10 questions that you have to answer within 5 working days of the date of notice.

Most of these questions, I thought I had already answered during my online registration. Why can I not answer those questions online? In the 21^st century there is no excuse not to offer an online form for those questions. It would also save some costs and tax payers' money!

Certification Of Understanding

This is a very benign name for a document that needs your signature and date certifying that “I am aware that the law provides criminal penalties for false statements made in connection with receiving unemployment insurance benefits.”

This is the caption of one of the forms that were mailed to me soon after I registered online as unemployed. This form has to be returned within 7 calendar days or “failure to return this certificate could result in denial of Unemployment Benefits.”

This form consists of a mumble jumble of a number of disparate things (Emphasis added):

·         I have to certify that I “read and understand the contents” of a 30 page “pamphlet” titled “A Guide To Unemployment Insurance” (small page size, 8.5 by 3.5 inches)
[Oh sure, no problem! Great bedtime reading. Will take me only a few hours, if taken seriously.]

·         I have to certify that I had been “given the opportunity to ask questions about my claim and have received an explanation of anything I did not understand.”
[Can I really certify this? I doubt it.]

·         I have to certify again what income tax deduction option that I had already selected during my previous online registration.
[Is this necessary? I am not a dummy.]

·         “I authorize my banking institution to release to the Arizona Department of Economic Security any account information pertaining to my receipt and eligibility for unemployment insurance benefits.”
[What do I authorize herewith? What exactly is the scope of account information to be released? They don’t even ask which bank institution? Do they already know my bank institutions? I would say this is so serious that this requires a separate form plus some explanations.]

You would think that perhaps this 30 pages pamphlet “A Guide To Unemployment Insurance” would tell you something about this Certification of Understanding form or in particular about the authorization to release any banking account information, but the pamphlet on page 26 is very generic and the respective paragraph is only 5 lines long.

Arizona Department Of Economic Security

Whoever came up with this oxymoron of a department name? There is no economic security and never was in a free market economy. Only central planners, statists and the like can think of something like this.

The Arizona Statutes under Title 23 (“Labor”) contains chapter 4 titled “Employment Security”. Is this what this department is named after?

On their website, this department does not provide you with any e-mail addresses, the aforementioned letters I received after I registered as an unemployed also did not include any e-mail addresses, only phone numbers and P.O. Boxes. This is not acceptable anymore in the 21^st century!

Or is this just a secretive department totally afraid of potential legal liabilities or possible retributions by dissatisfied unemployed people? Or do public sector union work rules prevent e-mail contact between tax payers and public sector employees?

This department is also hiding telephone numbers to their various divisions, office of the director etc. You really have to search or drill on their website for their phone numbers. Just try their Site Map, it’s awful.

Finally, I found this page (just look at the rather generic link address itself) with phone numbers of the director’s office. Well, I called (602) 542-4791, the number given on their website for the “DES Director” to inquire about the e-mail address of the Director. Well, it is the Operator, who picks up the phone not the Director’s office. I called twice and both times the Operator picked up, a nice, elder lady. Must be a very busy director’s office or they do not like to receive calls from unemployed tax payers like me.

Albert C. Wedemeyer – One Of The Less Known Generals Of WWII

Posted: 9/20/2012

A New Biography

Just read a book review in the Wall Street Journal about this amazing guy titled “The Man With A Plan”   by Jonathan W. Jordan published on 9/10/2012. The book itself is titled “General Albert C. Wedemeyer” by John J. McLaughlin.

Some Excerpts From The Book Review

My apologies to the Wall Street Journal for liberally quoting passages from this review, but I was so stunned by what I was reading that I could not help myself (Emphasis added):

·         “"World War II," wrote Adm. William Leahy, President Roosevelt's wartime chief of staff, "was the best-charted war ever fought. Everybody had charts for everything. We even had a section of the Government devoted solely to telling the rest of the Government how to make charts." The ubiquitous charts—together with such equally mundane cousins as tables, memoranda and staff studies—were the first weapons that America's high command wielded against the three Axis empires.”

·         “He foresaw another war with Germany and, in the late 1930s, attended the German army's prestigious general-staff school, the Kriegsakademie. There he learned the art of blitzkrieg alongside his future enemies. He watched Nazi brownshirts strut around Berlin, venting their hatred against Jews. He was in Vienna during the Anschluss, and he saw the Czechoslovakian crisis unfold from the German perspective.

Wedemeyer's report summarizing German tactics and organization brought him to the attention of George C. Marshall …  Marshall assigned Wedemeyer to the War Plans Division and tasked him with reducing America's mobilization requirements to a single document. In the summer of 1941, in response to a request from Roosevelt, Wedemeyer's team expanded this into a blueprint on how to defeat America's likely enemies in a future war.

Completed in an astonishing 90 days, this plan [Victory Plan] laid down all the critical politico-military-industrial assumptions for the looming conflict, correctly identifying America's adversaries and where the main fighting would take place and estimating the industrial capacity needed to feed the war machines of China, the Soviet Union, Great Britain and the United States and how much war materiel could be spared to allies.”

·         “Wedemeyer methodically argued the case for a 1943 invasion at a White House meeting with Roosevelt, Churchill and the Anglo-American chiefs of staff in June 1942, and he offered a direct and unapologetic rebuttal to Churchill's preferred invasion of North Africa. "Churchill could not have been pleased as the mid-level American officer categorically presented information that undermined his grand scheme," Mr. McLaughlin writes.”

·         “Wedemeyer, to the end of his days, insisted that the Allies lost an opportunity to win the war a year earlier, to save American lives and, perhaps, to have staved off Soviet hegemony over Eastern Europe.”

·         “by dispatching … to a seemingly dead-end assignment in the China-Burma-India theater … Marshall continued to hold a high opinion of him, and he was given key commands in Asia: serving as chief of staff to Louis Mountbatten … and … as chief of staff to the Chinese leader Chiang Kai-shek [and and commander of U.S. forces in China (1944–46)]. … then turn his considerable analytical skills toward the quandaries of postwar China and the 1948 Berlin blockade.”

·         “Historians such as the late John Keegan have praised Wedemeyer as "one of the most farsighted and intellectual military minds America has ever produced."”

Can you imagine that this US general was attending the Preußische Kriegsakademie (Prussian Military Academy) in Berlin from 1936-38 just before WWII, the same academy where, e.g., Carl von Clausewitz was one of its first students?

Wedemeyer In China

“After graduating from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point (1919), Wedemeyer was assigned to Tientsin, China, where he studied Mandarin Chinese.” (Encyclopedia Britannica).

“During his time in the CBI [China-Burma-India command], Wedemeyer attempted to motivate the Nationalist Chinese government to take a more aggressive role against the Japanese in the war. He was instrumental in expanding the Hump airlift operation with additional, more capable transport aircraft, and continued Stilwell's programs to train, equip, and modernize the Nationalist Chinese Army. His efforts were not wholly successful, in part because of the ill will engendered by his predecessor, as well as continuing friction over the role of Communist Chinese forces. Wedemeyer also supervised logistical support for American air forces in China.” (Wikipedia).

“His 1947 report of the situation in China and Korea, which warned of an imminent Communist triumph in China unless greater U.S. support was given to the Nationalists, was deemed so sensitive that its publication was suppressed for two years.” (Encyclopedia Britannica).

President Ronald Reagan On Wedemeyer

On May 23, 1985 general Wedemeyer received the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Reagan’s remarks about this general were very generic: “As one of America's most distinguished soldiers and patriots, Albert C. Wedemeyer has earned the gratitude of his country and the admiration of his countrymen. In the face of crisis and controversy, his integrity and his opposition to totalitarianism remained unshakeable. For his resolute defense of liberty and his abiding sense of personal honor, Albert C. Wedemeyer has earned the thanks and the deep affection of all who struggle for the cause of human freedom.”. Reagan’s remarks about, e.g., Chuck Yeager were better chosen.

US Army Center For Military History On Wedemeyer

Apparently this center offers a 170 pages publication as a PDF file on the Victory Plan on their website, but it is scanned as an image and therefore not searchable. That is very clever or simply useless! Optical character recognition software is not a tool employed by CMH it seems.

The CMH also offers a Google powered custom search, but you cannot filter or drill down. Very clever or useless! So when you enter Wedemeyer as a search term you get “About 180 results (0.16 seconds)” and there is no way to narrow it down say by biography etc.

Wikipedia On Wedemeyer

The Wikipedia entry on Arthur C. Wedemeyer is surprisingly short and unremarkable on his contributions to the War Plans Division. It is almost like “oh, by the way …”. His work for the CBI (see above) is ‘enriched’ with trivialities, but at least you get a better understanding of US involvement in China against Japanese invaders.

Surprisingly, Wikipedia seems to lack an entry for the army War Plans Division, but it has entry on the Air War Plans Division. I presume, they are not the same. Wedemeyer cannot be found in this article.

Germany’s Upper House To Vote On Gender Quota In Corporate Boardrooms

Following In The Footsteps Of The European Union

I have previously already written a blog post what I think about this big government overreach committed by the European Union.

The German Upper House (Bundesrat) is scheduled to vote as early as tomorrow (9/21/2012) on this subject. According to news reports (in German language) it is likely that such a misguided gender quota will pass.

The bill stipulates a two stage phase in: Beginning in 2018 a 20% quota will apply and beginning in 2023 it has to be at least 40% women on corporate boards. Why not 100% women?

A Massive Intervention In 

Property Rights & Freedom Of Contract

This example unequivocally shows that democracy and a constitution or the rule of law are no guarantee that individual freedom and property rights are protected from big government.

Thank goodness, the USA has not yet followed such dangerous follies. That is a beacon of hope, but a tiny one given the many follies of the USA like ObamaCare.

Such nonsense speaks loudly of the miserable quality of elected representatives in Germany. What is next?

Currency Manipulator China - An Irrational Obsession Of Mitt Romney

Candidate With Business Acumen, But A Poor Economist

No doubt, Mitt Romney is an accomplished business man, someone the USA urgently needs to end four years of agonizing und unnecessary Great Recession. However, his understanding of economics seems to be poor as can be shown by his insistence of China being a currency manipulator.

I do not understand which voters Mitt Romney is trying to win with this campaign motto, but if he is smart he would drop it instantly. How much is to be gained with such a slogan versus how much is destroyed by it?

Romney’s Trade Campaign Platform On China

Under “Trade Issues” we read “Confronting China. China presents a broad set of problems that cry out urgently for solutions. …
•Designate China a currency manipulator and impose countervailing duties …” (Emphasis added).

This is certainly overly aggressive language, more suited perhaps for the national defense issue page.

Currency Manipulation & Countervailing Duties

Both terms are taken from the tool box of a mercantilist or protectionist. Both have been tried in the past with considerable negative consequences.

The US thanks to its Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, preceded by the similar Fordney-McCumber Tariff Act of 1922, has greatly contributed to the severity of the Great Depression.

Currency manipulation is in the eye of the beholder. Is it currency manipulation that the US keeps short term interest rates for years at artificially and recklessly low rates?

A currency is a two edged sword. It is a measure of value of money of one country versus the value of money in other countries. If one country decides to control the value of its currency to be cheap versus the rest of the world so be it. As most relationships in economics it has benefits, but also disadvantages. A devalued currency promotes exports, but it makes imports more expensive and so on. Thus, China, which is highly dependent on imports of resources and technology, pays a price for devaluing its currency.

The US Needs A Strong Economic Recovery Above Anything Else

The World, including China, is waiting for that to happen!

People, who sit in a glass house should not be throwing stones. That is counterproductive. Meaning, China has acquired a trillion and more dollars in US government bonds, thus helping the federal government to finance its extraordinary debt binge of the past decade. At present, a highly indebted country with a weak economy like the US ought to be careful what it wishes for.

DroughtGard – The Green Revolution Goes On

A Perfect Coincidence

Just three years after Norman Borlaug passed away in 2009, I was excited to read an article in the Wall Street Journal by R. Paul Thompson titled “Seeds of Hope for the Dry Midwest—and the World/Monsanto's DroughtGard corn and other genetically modified food may also be an environmental boon.” (Subscription necessary) published on 9/9/2012.

This article coincides with one of the severest droughts since the Dust Bowl in the Midwest of the US. I think, I also read there were so far few farmers who used this product at the time of this drought.

An Exciting New Development Of The Green Revolution

As Mr. Thompson writes “Rising world-wide affluence, particularly in countries such as China and India [ca. 2.2 billion population together], will place ever greater demands on food production and, in turn, on water resources.  … [a] gene from the bacterium Bacillis subtilis is inserted in the DNA of corn; the resulting plants tolerate drought more effectively and require less water in non-drought conditions.   . how to produce food using less water, fewer pesticides, herbicides, and synthetic fertilizers.” (Emphasis added). [This is what this is about, more food with less water, drought tolerance is only a welcome side effect.]

What the author did not specifically say in this article, but which I have read elsewhere is that there are unmodified plants in nature which have the natural capability to resist droughts. So why should we not copy or apply this capability to other crops?

As the author points out in his article, this is a brand new development at the very beginning. Thus, I am sure, this new technology will be improved and made safe like so many others before.

In my opinion, humans are perhaps only decades away from producing our daily food without planting and harvesting plants like humans have done for several millennia.

Union Of Concerned Scientists Reacts

This article by Mr. Thompson has immediately elicited critical responses by this Union of ‘independent’ scientists. On 9/16/2012 a letter to the editors of the WSJ titled “Drought-Resistant Corn Is Oversold” appeared written by Doug Gurian-Sherman.

Same person also wrote a blog post titled “A Less Thirsty Future Through Engineered Crops?” regarding the above WSJ article on the blog of this Union published on 9/13/2012.

He is also the author of study published by the Union titled “High and Dry/Why Genetic Engineering Is Not Solving Agriculture’s Drought Problem in a Thirsty World” published June 2012. I think, based on the subtitle of this study, the author is confusing something: the purpose of genetic engineering is not to solve a drought problem.

Mr. Gurian-Sherman is listed as an Expert and works for this Union and he previously worked for among others for EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency) and FDA (US Food and Drug Administration). “Dr. Gurian-Sherman holds a doctorate degree in plant pathology from the University of California at Berkeley.” I wish that Mr. Borlaug, a Ph. D.  in plant pathologist himself, and Mr. Gurian-Sherman could have had a little chat.

So much attention from this Union, there must be something good about Monsanto’s DroughtGard.

Mr. Gurian-Sherman writes in the last paragraph of his above letter “While Monsanto and its competitors have struggled to overcome inherent technical difficulties with genetic engineering—such as unintended gene interactions that can make crops less valuable—more mature farming practices and technologies, including organic and other ecology-based farming systems and advanced breeding techniques, have delivered far more with far less investment. These promising but often neglected technologies, not genetic engineering, deserve increased support.” (Emphasis added). Do I detect that this ‘independent’, concerned scientist has some kind of bias?

He also warns us in blog post that biotechnology like “The backers of nuclear power claimed it would become “too cheap to meter” after it was rolled out more than half a century ago. Nuclear power is still expensive, and still faces big technological hurdles such as the disposal of nuclear waste. And after Fukushima, we are less sanguine about its safety as well.” (Emphasis added). Well to compare biotechnology (or more specifically Monsanto’s DroughtGard) and Fukushima is cheap demagoguery. Was it not this Union and other so called concerned scientists who have for decades vigorously fought against civilian use of nuclear power?

In the above blog post, the author writes (just a few selective excerpts):

1.       “Thompson ignores the part of our report [“High and Dry”] that examines why the technology faces significant challenges in addressing drought. These include unanswered questions about complex and unpredictable interactions of engineered genes with the rest of the workings of the crop that may result in undesirable tradeoffs in crop properties.” (Emphasis added).
[Uh, sounds scary! That is what ‘independent’, concerned scientists do for a living, scare the s**t out of us, right? Had humans always been so scared we would still be living in caves.]

2.       “… we also need to understand whether it [biotechnology, genetic engineering] may be compatible with justice and fairness.”.
[Well, when scientists get near “justice and fairness”, we have to pay extra attention. Is this a study by the Union or an opinion piece by an individual?]

3.       “Finally, he compares GE [genetic engineered] food to GE medicine, expressing exasperation at the greater acceptance of biotech drugs. But these two applications of biotechnology present very different benefits. Medicine is a choice, and we may accept serious side effects because the alternative may be more dire. Food is a daily necessity, and when our food supply is inundated by GE, our choices become limited.”
[Now, that is an interesting argument. So what if GE medicine is partially based on plants? So he does not mind the risks potentially involved with GE Medicine, but is opposed to GE food? Starving for hunger is a choice too, right? The author and his followers are free to plant any food free of GE to have more choices. In short, this argument is bizarre.]

Don’t Trust Concerned Scientists

These scientists are perhaps concerned, but these are most likely not your concerns.

Why did I waste so much effort writing about the responses by the Union of Concerned Scientists? Simply, to demonstrate how biased scientists operate and that we all should take the words of so called ‘independent’, concerned scientists with a huge grain of salt (“The phrase [cum grano salis or correctly a addito salis grano] comes from Pliny the Elder's Naturalis Historia, regarding the discovery of a recipe for an antidote to a poison.” according to Wikipedia).

Reassessing Silent Spring After 50 Years

A New Book By The Cato Institute

Judging by its introduction, excerpts, and table of contents available, the new book titled “Silent Spring at 50: The False Crises of Rachel Carson” appears to be well worth reading.

This reassessment should already have happened 20 or more years ago.

A Pseudoscientific Scaremonger

I believe, this sums up the book, I never read, but which I only know through what others have said or wrote about it. This is the impression I had for a long time.

Here is an excerpt from the first chapter of the above Cato book (Emphasis added):

“Perhaps Rachel Carson’s greatest sin of omission in Silent Spring was that she focused almost entirely on pesticide use in agriculture and essentially ignored pesticides’ public health role, particularly that of DDT in controlling malaria and other diseases transmitted by insects. This gap is all the more puzzling because DDT’s popularity in the 1950s stemmed from its use in public health campaigns during World War II—which many soldiers personally witnessed. Saving many lives and greatly reducing human misery was the reason Dr. Paul Müller received the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1948 for his role in the discovery of DDT’s insecticidal properties. In Chapter 8, Donald Roberts and Richard Tren, who have devoted decades to malaria control, review the evidence about DDT’s use for public health purposes—including significant benefits for the poor in the South in the United States—that was known at the time Carson wrote and explore the legacy of its fall from grace.”

Just One Book In A Line Of Similar Biased Publications

Friedrich Engels “The Condition of the Working Class in England in 1844” first published in German in 1845 and in English in 1887.

“The Jungle” by Upton Sinclair published in 1906.

I am sure there are more publications to be listed here, but you get the idea that there were a number of such publications that had a significant, long lasting influence despite their bias and incorrectness.

Hopefully, in the future we will be able to debunk such publications much earlier before their negative influence spreads.

Charities To Operate Like Businesses?

A Thought Provoking Article

So it seems?

This weekend (9/15/2012) edition of Wall Street Journal Review featured an article written by a prominent activist for charitable work, i.e. Dan Pallotta, titled “Why can’t we sell Charity like we sell Perfume?”.

I have to admit, I have never heard of this guy nor his long campaign to transform charitable enterprises before or I do not remember anymore.

Discrimination Against Charities

In his WSJ article, Mr. Pallotta argues in detail and not for the first time that there are such discriminations against charities in five critical areas:

1.       Non-profits are not allowed or are perceived to be obscene when they pay “competitive wages” like for profits. Consequently, non-profits are not able to attract the same talent as the business sector.

2.       Non-profits are not supposed to spend big money on advertising and marketing. Mr. Pallotta claims that “… money spent on advertising dramatically increases the money available for the needy.” He also contends that this imbalance between for profit and non-profit spending on these items “a big part of the reason that charitable giving has remained constant in the U.S. at about 2% of GDP since we began measuring it in the 1970s”.

3.       Non-profits tend to avoid daring new fundraising endeavors for fear of failure and heightened accountability.

4.       Non-profits are supposed to produce results immediately, while for profits can sometimes wait for years to turn a profit. [How many for profits have years before achieving success?]

5.       Non-profits cannot tap into financial markets are therefore “starved for growth and risk capital”. He thinks there should be a “stock market” for charities.

Stunning Vagueness

Nowhere does Mr. Pallotta mention or discuss that there are more than an estimated million charities operating in the USA covering probably every conceivable cause or one charity for every 300 citizens. Thus, I guess, most charities are fairly small and operate more local.

Mr. Pallotta is also mute on the subject that big government is the biggest competitor for charity in the US not the for profits. Why does he not call for government to do less and leave more to the private sector?

I would suspect that this universe of diverse charities in the US explains easily what Mr. Pallotta perceives to be discriminations against charities. He is also very vague as to what exactly these so called discriminations are about are they by law/regulation or are they by human perception and conventions or …?

He is also very vague how to measure the impact or effectiveness of charities over time or how to come up with a reliable, verifiable track record for charities. I would guess, this might be essential for any efforts to establish some kind of capital market for charities. Should this capital market be separate from the for profit capital market? Why? No answers.

What Mr. Pallotta Did Not Mention In His Article

Mr. Pallotta is, e.g., also behind the Charity Defense Council advocacy in Washington, DC. This organization appears to be an attempt to organize big charity (like big labor unions) to collude with big government to favor charities. Do charities in the US really have to be defended? From what?

The 5^th and final function of this Council is to “Organize Ourselves - Our sector does grassroots organizing for every cause but our own — for all issues except those that fundamentally undermine us as a sector. … We'll organize the sector on a town-by-town, state-by-state basis. …we can change the way the public thinks about charity.”

The 1st function of this council is to be an “Anti-Defamation League”. This seems to be awkward and strange to me.

The 2nd function seems to be more an obsession “Brave and Daring Public Ad Campaigns - … But we have to speak up for ourselves in the same media as the giant consumer brands, at the same volume, and with the same consistency.” Well, charity is not a perfume.

The 3^rd function is a “Legal Defense Fund”, but not what you quite expect, because “We will not be forced to speak about overhead when we want to speak about impact.”. Who or what prevents charities in the US to talk about or advertise impact?

And to top it all, in their 4^th function this Council advocates “The National Civil Rights Act for Charity and Social Enterprise - We deserve a thoughtful statutory code designed to help us change the world, not a fragmented set of oppressive laws and regulations that fundamentally work against us … we'll draft a National Civil Rights Act for Charity and Social Enterprise. …” (Emphasis added). Voilá! Big charities together with big government colluding for favors and preferences. A civil rights act for everything? Who still believes that the Civil Rights Act has been a blessing and its supposed benefits could not have been achieved other than by big government?

HSTEM Instead Of STEM Or History Is Indispensable

True Human Progress

STEM stands for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics. It’s all the rage in the Western World, because too few are willing to study it so they say with negative consequences for future competitiveness and technological progress.

HSTEM stands for History, STEM. One should not relegate history to be a pure elective when studying STEM. It ought to be a requirement to be offered and promoted.

Why History?

History is the glue to understand how these fields have developed over time and to understand how much they have in common. It is critical to understand that science and engineering are fields that require constant trial and error and that there is no gain without taking risks. It is also critical to understand that government should not and cannot control or steer the outcomes of science.

History helps to understand how concepts have evolved over time. I would venture to say that mathematics becomes much more interesting or fascinating if you see how it has evolved over time and around the world.

The history of science is littered with human follies and hubris. Many once great theories promoted by the greatest minds of their time ended up in the dustbin of history. This ought to be a humbling experience. As king Solomon said so presciently in Ecclesiastes almost 3,000 years ago “What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again;

there is nothing new under the sun.”. E.g., the current Global Warming hysteria stoked by hundreds of so called scientists is such a folly.

It is my sincere conviction that if we all were better educated in the history of STEM we would not so easily be fooled and taken for an expensive ride by self-professed scientific doomsayers and their fellow traveling politicians.

How Behavioral Psychology Has Hacked Mr. Issenberg’s Brain

Sasha Issenberg

Mr. Sasha Issenberg just came out with a new book titled “The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns”. The Wall Street Journal published his article titled “5 Ways To Hack Voter’s Brains” in the Review section on 9/15/2012. He was also featured in a lengthy interview on past Friday’s edition of Jim Lehrer’s News Hour.

The Language Is Revealing

Excerpts from the Wall Street Journal article (Emphasis added):

• “Welcome to the modern science of politics, where voters have become lab rats in an ongoing cycle of controlled trials informed by principles from behavioral psychology.” [Ah, voters are now lab rats. Well, maybe I am a monkey.]
• “It is now standard practice for canvassers in the days before an election to ask what time a respondent plans to vote and what he or she will be doing immediately beforehand. But the volunteer never writes down the answers. … a concept known as "the plan-making effect": that people who are induced to rehearse an activity are more likely to follow through.” [Really, they never write down the answers. Very clever, indeed. So, if I as voter am made to rehearse something it is a plan making effect.]
• “… statistical "microtargeting" models—the political world's version of credit scores.  . These scores now stick to voters as indelibly as credit scores.” [He only wishes it was that easy and simple. To compare political attitudes/behavior, which can shift on a dime to something as narrowly focused as credit scores is more than a stretch.]
• “… with tactics like … [a] threat to expose nonvoters to their neighbors, because it looks a lot like blackmail. But campaigns have figured out how to soften such approaches.” [Ah, as a voter I am only being soft blackmailed. What a relieve!]

 Presumption Of Knowledge

Mr. Issenberg is trying to sell us voters on the supposedly exact science of psychology and statistical microtargeting models and big data analysis. He suggests that this trickery what he calls “secret science” can win election campaigns. Nice try!

Well, in the real world there are self-fulfilling as well as self-defeating prophecies; empirically observed rules about human behavior that break down as soon as they are understood by an increasing number of people and so on.

Fact is that human behavior has been unpredictable for millennia and will continue to be unpredictable for decades to come.

Or Abraham Lincoln said it best: “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”

Europeans Continue Irresponsible And Reckless Economic Policies

What Happened?

Today (9/6/2012), the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to commit itself to unlimited purchases of short-term government debt as stated in their press release titled “Technical features of Outright Monetary Transactions”. This press release was accompanied by another, related press release titled “Measures to preserve collateral availability”.

Thus, the ECB is intending to print as much money as necessary. The hyperinflations of the 20^th century are being ignored. The European Union is more and more becoming lawless. Anything goes!

Strict Conditionality Attached

“A necessary condition for Outright Monetary Transactions is strict and effective conditionality attached to an appropriate European Financial Stability Facility/European Stability Mechanism (EFSF/ESM) programme. …

The Governing Council will consider Outright Monetary Transactions to the extent that they are warranted from a monetary policy perspective as long as programme conditionality is fully respected, and terminate them once their objectives are achieved or when there is non-compliance with the macroeconomic adjustment or precautionary programme.” (Emphasis added)

What a joke! Empty promises heard before. Who believes that after the European governments materially breached major European agreements regarding the European Monetary Union.

Another Egregious Breach Of European Agreements

The Europeans are on a very slippery slope downhill. Their credibility and reputations is diminishing fast and the world is watching.

The ECB was not setup to bail out highly indebted governments. I am pretty certain this latest measure is in contravention to the European agreements to establish the European Central Bank.

There is, e.g., Article 123 (1) of the Lisbon Treaty:

“1. Overdraft facilities or any other type of credit facility with the European Central Bank or with the central banks of the Member States (hereinafter referred to as ‘national central banks’) in favour of Union institutions, bodies, offices or agencies, central governments,  … shall be prohibited, as shall the purchase directly from them by the European Central Bank or national central banks of debt instruments.” (Emphasis added)

Sterilization

“The liquidity created through Outright Monetary Transactions will be fully sterilized.” Really? Sounds to good to be true. More difficult to achieve promises. When central bankers pretend to be engineers, they may be surprised by market forces.

Manipulation Of Financing Costs

These latest desperate measures by the ECB aim to control the interest rates as demanded by financial markets when they buy Greek, Italian, or Spanish government debt.

As I wrote in a previous blog it is high time that the European interest rates diverged by country to reflect the huge government debt of some of the European Monetary Union (EMU) members.

Finally, private financial investors put a more realistic price on government indebtedness than in the decade before. This should not be discouraged by the ECB. On the contrary, higher interest rates would immediately force highly indebted countries to pursue drastic and immediate reforms.

Central Bank Independence Sacrificed

The ECB was patterned after the former German post-war central bank (Bundesbank) to be independent of political influence and to focus exclusively on price stability. The latest decision by the ECB surely implies that this central bank lost its independence from political influence like the German Reichsbank in the 20^th century.

Martin Luther & Lucas Cranach The Elder

It does not hurt to have close and famous friends. It is even better if such a friend turns out to be great painter and printmaker. One of the best known portraits of Martin Luther is by Lucas Cranach the Elder.

Would Martin Luther have been so great without this friendship?

Lance Armstrong: A Victim Of Presumption Of Guilt

I have previously written a blog on Lance Armstrong’sdoping accusations.

Executive Summary

According to the antidoping vigilantes of our time an exceptional athlete like Lance Armstrong could not have won without doping. Period! All they have to do is to prove it no matter what it takes and how long it takes.

What is worse smart, exceptional and average athletes who use some form of performance enhancement undetectable at the time or antidoping vigilantes who do not mind using questionable or even illegal means to harass such athletes over years? This is when antidoping becomes zealotry.

Vigilantes Obsessed With Doping

What happened to Lance Armstrong is a warning to any exceptional athlete: Anti doping zealots will come after you until you surrender and admit under duress that you did it. It is a modern, high tech witch hunt.

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Mr. Armstrong underwent so many investigations into doping allegations. Over the past three years he was subjected to an inconclusive federal criminal investigation, then followed by US Anti Doping Agency (USADA). How many times or how often and over how many years does an athlete have to be subjected to this kind of treatment?

“While USADA and some independent hematologists who have seen the data say they suggest that Mr. Armstrong was doping, other experts cited by Mr. Armstrong argue that all the fluctuations in the contents of Mr. Armstrong's blood are well within the normal range for an athlete.

Although some athletes have been sanctioned and banned based on these long-term blood tests, they are open to subjective interpretation and scientists often disagree on whether to bring doping cases against athletes based on such results.” (Wall Street Journal article dated 8/25/2012. Emphasis added)

Anti Doping Zealots Used Illegal Or Questionable Methods

Lance Armstrong is reported to have passed over 500 anti doping tests or more during his career. A Swiss laboratory refused to go along …

Here is a relevant excerpt from a Wall Street Journal article dated 8/25/2012 (Emphasis added):

“The new test, … if perfected, it could detect a molecule contained in blood bags that would only be present in the system of a person who had taken a transfusion.

The scientists, who worked for various antidoping organizations around the world, approached … the Swiss-based International Cycling Union, or UCI, with a plan, … They would get a sample of Mr. Armstrong's blood during the race, freeze it at a doping lab, and after the test was perfected, use it to determine whether he had cheated.

But the Swiss lab that handles Tour drug testing declined to participate, … because the plan, which also targeted other top riders, didn't follow the drug-testing protocols set forth in the antidoping code that governs the sport”

“In 2004, researchers from a French laboratory that had performed Tour de France drug tests, working on their own, retested dozens of preserved samples from the 1999 Tour. They were testing for EPO, which hadn't been detectable at the time.  … six of the samples that belonged to Mr. Armstrong showed the presence of the blood-boosting drug.

In response …, the UCI opened an independent investigation. Less than a year later, a report commissioned by the UCI said that the tests shouldn't have been conducted at all and couldn't be acted upon because they weren't performed according to the organization's official drug-testing protocols, which are mandated for all Olympic sports by the World Anti-Doping Agency.

Mr. Armstrong vigorously denied taking the drug during the race, questioned the validity of the tests and said the samples could have been tainted.”

Lance Armstrong In His Own Words

In a statement, Mr. Armstrong called the process "one-sided and unfair," and said there was "zero physical evidence" that he had cheated. "The bottom line is I played by the rules that were put in place by the UCI, WADA and USADA when I raced"

"The idea that athletes can be convicted today without positive…samples, under the same rules and procedures that apply to athletes with positive tests, perverts the system,"

What About The Other Athletes Who Competed With Lance Armstrong?

Have his competitors received the same kind of attention by these antidoping vigilantes? Did these anti doping zealots also run the same kind of extensive and ex post facto tests on the competitors of Lance Armstrong? I doubt it. What if his competitors did about the same doping or even other kinds as Mr. Armstrong is accused of? In this case would his competitors be punished in the same way?