Tuesday, April 19, 2011

The Exponential Development Of The Technological Revolution

Introduction

I am certainly not the first to make this claim (e.g. Singularity by e.g. Mr. Ray Kurzweil). However, this technological revolution may not yet be well understood by the inhabitants of this planet nor by myself.


Past Technological Revolutions Pale In Comparison


The ramifications and repercussions of this technological revolution are profound and will impact everything on earth in the foreseeable future. This technological revolution is like no other before in history in speed and impact. The diffusion of innovation and the adaption rate are already much faster than any historical precedent we know of. Just think of the cell phone.


For over five hundred years the book was basically the most important conveyance of human knowledge. Now the book as we know it is fast becoming extinct like the stone tablets and papyrus before.


Just take libraries for example. Do we still need those 100,000s of legacy libraries all over the world with millions of kilometers of bookshelves? Theoretically, one digital library with digital storage of everything ever written by humans would suffice.


Human Progress Like Rice On A Chessboard


Like Moore’s Law processing power increases, data storage increases, and ultimately the accumulation of knowledge and information. The acceleration of progress in science, medicine & technology, we are already witnessing today, is breath taking and just the beginning.


The Whole World Participates In This Revolution


Unlike previous, historical technological revolutions, which evolved over time and geographic space, this technological revolution is happening almost simultaneously worldwide and all people can and do participate across all continents.


Today, there are about 7 billion human brains participating in this revolution, billions of brains more than in any other previous revolution. Almost every human being today has already access to the entire human knowledge over Internet like the Wikipedia. Just compare this to the famous French encyclopedia of

This time it will not be a predominantly European & American, or Islamic, or Indian or Chinese revolution, but a revolution carried out by people of any cultural background and geographic location.


It will be a modern Renaissance, but much more powerful. This time people of all walks of life not only the scholars can participate. Thus, the obstacles for anyone to participate are greatly reduced compared to any earlier time.


The Evolution Of The Brain-Computer Interface Is Imminent


There is a distinct possibility that machines will soon be more intelligent than today’s humans. The famous Turing Test will likely be passed in less than 20 years.


However, I am not pessimistic. One day our brains will be augmented by computers. Can you imagine to have a memory such that forgetfulness is obsolete? Can you imagine to have a computer or network of computers work for you on a novel problem, while you sleep and you wake up to review what these computers came up with?


Being Envious


I truly envy the coming generations of humans. It is just mind boggling what the future holds in store. Very exciting Brave New World!

No comments: