Economics or esoterics? Economics or criminology?
Besides the confusion, this research result is interesting! It confirms what common sense would tell you: Crime does not pay!
From the paper:
"... The paper is based on Danish register data and uses a 2005 reform that dramatically increased the size of Denmark’s DNA database as an instrumental variable for whether an individual was added to the database. The change allowed police to add anyone charged with what is roughly equivalent to a felony
in the U.S. ... to the DNA database, increasing offenders’ average probability of being included in the database from 4% to almost 40%. ...
Deterrence effects are largest for offenders initially charged with violent crime, while DNA databases prevent subsequent property, weapon, and
violent offenses. This supports the hypothesis that offenders frequently commit multiple types of crime, rather than specializing in only a specific crime type. ...
we find that, by reducing recidivism, DNA databases have beneficial effects on family life. First-time offenders are statistically significantly more likely to be married after they are added to the database ...
Furthermore, this is only the second paper to estimate the causal effects of DNA databases on criminal behavior. Doleac (2017) uses U.S. data to estimate the net deterrence effect (i.e., a combination of the deterrence and detection effects) in a regression discontinuity design based on state database expansions, and finds a reduction in subsequent convictions of 17% for violent felony convicts, and 6% for property felony convicts. ...
The Danish Central DNA Database was introduced on July 1, 2000, in order to i) ease police detection work by identifying offenders and ii) deter offenders by increasing a profiled offender’s probability of getting caught for any subsequent crimes (Justitsministeriet, 1999). The database consists of a person-specific section with DNA samples from suspects, and an evidence-specific section with DNA samples collected at crime scenes or from a victim (Lovom oprettelse af et centralt dna-profilregister, 2000). At the time the database was created, however, only suspects of a limited number of the most serious offenses (e.g., murder, robbery,
arson, major violence, incest, and rape) could be included in the person-specific section, and only when the DNA profile was essential to a specific criminal investigation. ...
The Danish legislature expanded the DNA database on May 24, 2005.4 The bill introduced two major changes surrounding DNA profiling in criminal cases. First, the list of crime types that qualify for DNA profiling was vastly expanded to include all offenses where the maximum penalty is a prison sentence of 18 months or more ...
Second, prior to the reform, DNA profiles were only collected if they were deemed to be essential to a specific criminal investigation, so charged individuals who confessed were not obliged to be profiled, nor were individuals charged in cases with no DNA evidence (Det Etiske Råd, 2006). The reform eliminated
Second, prior to the reform, DNA profiles were only collected if they were deemed to be essential to a specific criminal investigation, so charged individuals who confessed were not obliged to be profiled, nor were individuals charged in cases with no DNA evidence (Det Etiske Råd, 2006). The reform eliminated
these requirements. Furthermore, the reform also made it easier and cheaper to obtain DNA samples as it authorized the police to collect the DNA sample instead of requiring medical personnel. ..."
From the abstract:
"This paper studies the effects of adding criminal offenders to a DNA database. Using a large expansion of Denmark's DNA database, we find that DNA registration reduces recidivism within the following year by up to 42 percent. It also increases the probability that offenders are identified if they recidivate, which we use to estimate the elasticity of crime with respect to the detection probability and find that a 1 percent higher detection probability reduces crime by more than 2 percent. We also find that DNA registration increases the likelihood that offenders find employment, enroll in education, and live in a more stable family environment."
Here is a link to the actual paper PDF by one of the authors:
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