Saturday, November 16, 2024

A formula for life? New model calculates chances of intelligent beings in our universe and beyond

Maybe more life can be found in another universe? Or what has dark matter/energy to do with life?

Even though the abstract does not mention intelligent life, the article references it at least twice.

"In the 1960s, American astronomer Dr Frank Drake came up with an equation to calculate the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilisations in our Milky Way galaxy.

More than 60 years on, researchers at Durham, the University of Edinburgh and the Université de Genève, have produced a new model based on the conditions created by the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion and the amount of stars formed instead. ...

This new research has calculated the fraction of ordinary matter converted into stars over the entire history of the Universe, for different dark energy densities.

The model predicts this fraction would be approximately 27 per cent in a universe that is most efficient at forming stars, compared to 23 per cent in our Universe.

The new model could allow scientists to understand the effects of differing densities of dark energy on the formation of structures in the Universe and the conditions for life to develop in the cosmos. ...

However, for life to develop, there would need to be regions where matter can clump together to form stars and planets, and it would need to remain stable for billions of years to allow life to evolve.

Since stars are a precondition for the emergence of life as we know it, this new calculation could be used to estimate the probability of generating intelligent life in our Universe, and in a multiverse scenario of hypothetical different universes. ..."

"... However, this argument neglects the question of how long intelligent life may to take to emerge following the formation of a star. This is an issue on which cosmologists are unlikely to have a reliable opinion. ..."

From the abstract:
"We present an extended analytical model for cosmic star formation, with the aim of investigating the impact of cosmological parameters on the star formation history within the CDM paradigm. Constructing an ensemble of flat CDM models where the cosmological constant varies between and  times the observed value, ⁠, we find that the fraction of cosmic baryons that are converted into stars over the entire history of the universe peaks at  27 per cent for ⁠. We explain, from first principles, that the decline of this asymptotic star formation efficiency for lower and higher values of  is driven, respectively, by the astrophysics of star formation, and by the suppression of cosmic structure formation. However, the asymptotic efficiency declines slowly as  increases, falling below 5 per cent only for ⁠. Making the minimal assumption that the probability of generating observers is proportional to this efficiency, and following Weinberg in adopting a flat prior on ⁠, the median posterior value of  is ⁠. Furthermore, the probability of observing  is only 0.5 per cent. Although this work has not considered recollapsing models with⁠, the indication is thus that  appears to be unreasonably small compared to the predictions of the simplest multiverse ensemble. This poses a challenge for anthropic reasoning as a viable explanation for cosmic coincidences and the apparent fine-tuning of the Universe: either the approach is invalid or more parameters than  alone must vary within the ensemble."

A formula for life? New model calculates chances of intelligent beings in our universe and beyond "The chances of intelligent life emerging in our universe—and in any hypothetical ones beyond it—can be estimated by a new theoretical model which has echoes of the famous Drake Equation."

Formula for alien life: Drake Equation gets a dark energy update

New model could calculate probability of intelligent life in our Universe and beyond (original news release) "A team of astrophysicists, led by our Institute for Computational Cosmology, have developed a new model that could estimate how likely it is for intelligent life to emerge in our Universe and beyond."


How the same region of the Universe would look in terms of the amount of stars for different values of the dark energy density.


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