Climate Models Are Wrong: No Warming Surge Since the 1970s

Recommendable!

Not to mention that the historical global surface temperature data are seriously tainted (e.g. urban heat island effect, lack of geographic coverage et al.).

Remember, we just came out of the last ice age (Little Ice Age) that ended about 1850 or earlier.

Then there was the so called Global Cooling scare of the 1970s/1980s, which faltered quickly on its absurdity and was then replaced with the Global Warming/climate change scare later, which still continuous.

"The researchers applied statistical tools designed to identify structural changes in time series data over time, commonly called changepoint models, to four sets of global mean surface temperature records from 1850 to 2023.

The research team found a 53 percent increase in the slope (rate of change) of warming from 0.019 °C per year (1970–2012) to 0.029 °C per year (2013–2023), but this shift was not statistically significant. To qualify as a true surge, indicating more than a temporary or naturally occurring increase in temperatures, the warming trend would have had to be at least 0.039 °C per year, rising by more than 100 percent.

The team’s research suggests short-term temperature anomalies or changes in the rate of warming are not necessarily indicative of long-term climate change but rather are due to a combination of factors, such as “noise” in the data or naturally occurring temperature variations driven my large-scale [long-term] cycles like El Niño and La Niña events, which obscure or are being confused with significant long-term temperature shifts.  ..."

From the abstract:

"The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. Here we investigate whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850–2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected despite the breaking record temperatures observed in 2023. As such, we estimate the minimum changes in the warming trend required for a surge to be detectable. Across all datasets, an increase of at least 55% is needed for a warming surge to be detectable at the present time."

Climate Change Weekly #523: Climate Models Are Wrong: No Warming Surge Since the 1970s - The Heartland Institute

A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet (open access)

Please note the extremely small temperature changes of charts presenting long-term historical GMST data beginning around 1850, a change of maximal 1.5 degrees Celsius over 170 years. How much of this change is measurement error anyway or just reflects the huge world population and world energy use increase since then?

Fig. 2: An example of GMST time series with a spurious fit.

A HadCRUT GMST anomalies (black) with fitted superimposed discontinuous piecewise linear trends (red) calculated assuming independent errors and
B scatterplot of the errors to illustrate a positive correlation. A hypothesis test provides strong evidence that the independent errors assumption is not valid with a p-value  < 0.000008 (see Supplementary Table 1).