Like the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)?
We still know so little about our oceans! This is one reason why Global Warming is a hoax and Climate Change a religion. But what goes on in our oceans sure has a huge influence on our climate!
What could possibly be wrong with this study:
- It covers only 4 decades of data! That is most likely insufficient!
- It is based on heavy modeling! This might be a problem especially given that the slowing is only 4%. What is the margin of error?
- It is only based on the Florida Straits! That covers only a small geographic area of the entire Gulf Stream
Let me guess what this could mean: Colder summers & winters around the Atlantic Ocean affecting the northern hemisphere in coming years? Or is the weakening too weak and actually not too relevant?
"... Researchers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and the University of Miami looked at four decades of data from the Florida Straits, including measurements of the volume of seawater transported through the region in that time. ..."
"Key Takeaways
- The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Strait has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with a 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.
- This is the strongest, most definitive evidence we have of the weakening of this climatically-relevant ocean current,” ...
- The finding of definitive evidence of the weakening of the Gulf Stream transport of water is a testament to long-term ocean observing and the importance of sustaining long ocean records.
- The study does not conclude whether the Gulf Stream weakening is due to climate change or to natural factors, stating that future studies should try to identify the cause of the weakening.
- For the study, researchers applied Bayesian modeling to combine thousands of data points from three independent data sets to determine the transport of water through the Florida Straits since 1982. Bayesian modeling uses probability to represent uncertainty within a model. The Bayesian model solution provided clear evidence of significant long-term change. In addition, researchers found that omitting any one of the data sets from the analysis also indicated weakening. The paper states this demonstrates that transport weakening is a common signal that is not dependent on any one data set."
From the abstract:
"The Gulf Stream is a vital limb of the North Atlantic circulation that influences regional climate, sea level, and hurricane activity. Given the Gulf Stream's relevance to weather and climate, many studies have attempted to estimate trends in its volumetric transport from various data sets, but results have been inconclusive, and no consensus has emerged whether it is weakening with climate change. Here we use Bayesian analysis to jointly assimilate multiple observational data sets from the Florida Straits to quantify uncertainty and change in Gulf Stream volume transport since 1982. We find with virtual certainty (probability P > 99%) that Gulf Stream volume transport through the Florida Straits declined by 1.2 ± 1.0 Sv in the past 40 years (95% credible interval). This significant trend has emerged from the data set only over the past ten years, the first unequivocal evidence for a recent multidecadal decline in this climate-relevant component of ocean circulation."
New Study Definitively Confirms Gulf Stream Weakening (primary news source)
Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits (open access)
Benjamin Franklin's chart of the Gulf Stream printed in London in 1769 (Source)
