To err is human AI! 😊
"... AI made its own prediction earlier this week—but Prevost, now known as Pope Leo XIV, was not on the shortlist. ....
AI algorithms can predict political elections with striking accuracy, but papal conclaves present a unique challenge. The election process has remained the same for centuries: no polls, no primaries, and electors who are sworn to secrecy. ...
model probably missed Prevost because it didn’t consider political and geographical factors that ended up playing a role in the election. ..."
From the abstract:
"Following the death of Pope Francis, the College of Cardinals will convene in conclave to elect the new Pontiff of the Roman Catholic Church.
In this report, we present a computational framework for analyzing the ideological landscape of the cardinal electors and estimating the likely outcomes of the upcoming papal election. We collected public textual data describing each cardinal's positions on a range of topics currently relevant to the Church, including sexuality, migration, poverty, governance and interreligious dialogue. These texts were embedded using a transformer-based language model to construct a semantic similarity matrix among cardinals.
We then simulated conclave voting dynamics using this matrix as a proxy for ideological proximity. The model produced both topic-conditioned and aggregate probabilistic forecasts of election outcomes. We report the predicted leading candidates under various scenarios and discuss the structure of factional clustering revealed by the embeddings.
The results highlight a polarized field with a small number of structurally central candidates, among whom Pietro Parolin, the former secretary of state, consistently emerges as the most broadly electable across thematic scenarios, followed by both high-profile and outsider names such as card. Brislin and Tagle."
AI predicted the next pope. Did it get it right? "Researchers use algorithms to study political factions within the Catholic Church"
Complex totopapa: predicting the successor to pope Francis (preprint, open access)
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