Ever since the widening ozone layer hole was first discovered in 1985, the ozone layer is another favorite when it comes to alarmism and hysteria.
As usual, this alarmism and hysteria is based on (flawed) computer model simulations or in other words, this research is speculative if not junk! Human ingenuity can easily handle the ozone layer!
There is probably little doubt that e.g. satellite launches will increase in coming years.
From the abstract:
"Rocket emissions thin the stratospheric ozone layer. To understand if significant ozone losses could [???] occur as the launch industry grows, we examine two scenarios [???].
Our ‘ambitious’ scenario (2040 launches/year) yields a −0.29% depletion in annual-mean, near-global total column ozone in 2030. Antarctic springtime ozone decreases by 3.9%.
Our ‘conservative’ scenario (884 launches/year) yields −0.17% annual, near-global depletion; current licensing rates suggest this scenario may be exceeded before 2030.
Ozone losses are driven by the chlorine produced from solid rocket motor propellant, and black carbon which is emitted from most propellants. The ozone layer is slowly healing from the effects of CFCs, yet global-mean ozone abundances are still 2% lower than measured prior to the onset of CFC-induced ozone depletion.
Our results demonstrate that ongoing and frequent rocket launches could [???] delay ozone recovery. Action is needed now to ensure that future growth of the launch industry and ozone protection are mutually sustainable."
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